Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 281810
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1110 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Breezy and cool today with only a few passing showers. Southerly
winds increase Friday morning ahead of the next storm that will
bring rain and scattered thunderstorms to the region Friday into
Saturday. Drying trend Sunday as high pressure builds and lasts
through the middle of next week with a return to dry and
seasonably mild weather.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Rain showers are currently moving through the region south of San
Francisco, impacting KSFO, and portions of the East Bay at this
hour. Additional showers are moving across the Santa Cruz Mountains,
into the Santa Clara Valley, soon to impact the Central Coast, while
light rain is being reported as far north as KSTS (Santa Rosa).
However, most of the region will be dry today and tonight outside of
passing showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Light to locally moderate showers will move through the region today
in the wake of last night`s cold front and under the influence of
the trough building to the north. Expect cloudy and cool
conditions between the showers through the day, with showers
becoming more isolated into the the evening. Expect a brief pause
in rain chances Thursday night, but the next system arrives Friday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Another quicker-moving cold front and low pressure move into the
region along the current trough pattern. While the cold front moves
inland, the low looks to remain along the coast line and begin to
slowly progress southward. This places light warm-sector showers
in the North Bay starting early Friday with the main rain band
along the cold front moving inland late Friday morning and into
that afternoon. Breezy to gusty winds build ahead the front and
linger into that night. Wind Advisories have been issued for the
San Francisco Peninsula Coast, Santa Cruz Mountains, East Bay
Hills, coastal Monterey Bay, the Big Sur Coast and San Benito Co.

Thunderstorm and scattered shower chances move in behind the main
rain band. The spread of these post frontal rains still spread
across the Bay Area and Central Coast Friday night through Saturday
evening, with storm chances peaking around 25% during that time
frame. Shower activity begins to dissipate into Saturday night, rain
exiting Sunday as the low continues to move south.

Rainfall totals from early Friday through Sunday morning look to
range from:

-0.5" to 1" for most areas
-1" to 1.25" for coastal low lands and interior North Bay
-1.25" to 2" for higher elevations along the coast
- and above 2" for the highest peaks along the coast with some
isolated areas on the Big Sur Coast reaching above 3"

This system still offers some variability, so be sure to keep
checking in.

After Sunday, dry weather returns as a ridge pattern forms over the
California Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Radar shows isolated showers moving through the North Bay and San
Francisco Peninsula. Showers will continue into the early afternoon
with a break in the rain expected this evening into the overnight
hours. The next round of rain will start between 12-14Z as an
incoming low pressure system approaches the California coast. Rain
will start out as isolated light showers with more widespread
moderate to at times heavy rain starting just after the end of the
18Z TAF. Winds will become more southerly to southwesterly through
the TAF period with breezy to gusty winds developing between 14-18Z
as the system approaches. VFR CIGs should remain in place for the
majority of the period with temporary dips into MVFR possible if a
shower moves directly over the airport. Thunderstorm potential will
start to increase after this TAF period Friday into Saturday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR transition to MVFR tomorrow afternoon.
Scattered showers continue to move through the SF peninsula with
light rain possible through the mid afternoon. Westerly winds
gradually transition southerly with moderate to gusty winds expected
beginning 20Z tomorrow. Thunderstorm potential increases starting 20-
23Z tomorrow but confidence remains low on where thunderstorms may
develop so did not include in TAF at this time.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR transitioning to MVFR ahead of tomorrow
mornings incoming low pressure system. Westerly to northwesterly
winds will shift southerly and strengthen by tomorrow morning.
Scattered light showers continue through the afternoon with a brief
break from the showers this evening/early nighttime. The next round
of rain will start between 14-16Z tomorrow with guidance suggesting
timing will be closer to 14Z for MRY and slightly closer to 16Z for
SNS.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1109 AM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Scattered showers continue to move over the coastal waters as
yesterday`s cold front exits the area and a second low pressure
system approaches. Gentle to moderate westerly to northwesterly
breezes will continue through the remainder of Thursday before
moderate to strong southwesterly winds develop ahead of the
approaching low pressure system. Gale force gusts will become more
likely, particularly across the southernmost marine zones, Friday
into Saturday. Light to moderate scattered showers will start
early  Friday before transitioning to widespread moderate rain
heading into  the mid morning. There is a 25% chance for scattered
thunderstorms  over the waters Friday morning-Saturday night.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ509-
     512-515-517-518-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Friday
     for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Friday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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