Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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819 FXUS66 KMTR 220819 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 119 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 118 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Warm inland temperatures expected through today before cooler, unsettled weather returns Tuesday and continues through late week. Light rain chances for Thursday night and into Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 118 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Mostly sunny conditions are expected inland today with temperatures expected to warm into the mid 70s to low 80s. Meanwhile, a southerly surge is likely to occur by late morning or early afternoon which would limit warming to the upper 50s to mid 60s. As stratus moves inland, orographic lift is likely to produce widespread drizzle in coastal regions and in the favored west/southwest facing slopes. However, precipitation will be light and generally only produce a few hundredths of an inch. Coastal drizzle will continue into tonight and early Tuesday morning with temperatures expected to cool into the mid 40s to low 50s regionwide. Widespread cloud cover is likely to spread into the valleys as well (minus the Santa Clara Valley). && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 118 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Temperatures on Tuesday drop by 10-15 degrees across the interior with highs generally in the 60s as an upper level low approaches the region. Coastal drizzle is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as well with aforementioned low pressure offshore. The low pressure system will move inland Wednesday night into Thursday morning with unsettled conditions to persist. Thursday night into Friday a shortwave trough will move through the region and bring chances for light rain. Precipitation amounts have trended downward as of this morning, with only a few hundredths of an inch expected regionwide. Afternoon temperatures through this period are forecast to be in the upper 50s to upper 60s with overnight lows largely in the mid 40s to low 50s. Ever so slight warming is expected for this upcoming weekend with interior areas reaching the low 70s with drier conditions returning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 PM PDT Sun Apr 21 2024 VFR through the TAF period for most terminals, with the exception of Monterey Bay who are likely to see LIFR/IFR CIGs as stratus begins to surge up the coast. Most terminals tonight will see clear skies and generally light winds. Into the afternoon of Monday, winds will become more southwesterly and breezy to moderate ahead of an approaching low pressure system. These elevated winds will last longer into the late night before finally diminishing just beyond the TAF period. Around the end of the TAF period, stratus will begin to start pushing inland, bringing MVFR CIGs to the North Bay and Monterey Bay terminals to start. Vicinity of SFO...VFR lasts through Monday night. Winds will turn to flow out of the southwest in the afternoon Monday, with gusts up to 20 knots. Winds only ease slightly come nightfall, but gusts do diminish. Stratus does not appear to impact the terminal until the first hours of Tuesday morning, bringing MVFR conditions. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR/IFR conditions develop in the early morning of Monday. Satellite currently shows clear skies over the terminals, but near the southern end of the Monterey county coast, stratus is slowly creeping its way northwards. Once stratus begins to impact MRY Bay terminals, it is expected to last at least through the late morning Monday. After the late morning, VFR should return for a few hours alongside breezy W/SW winds. MVFR conditions develop in the late afternoon to early evening Monday as stratus percolates inland once more. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 335 PM PDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Moderate to locally strong northerly winds prevail over the coastal waters thanks to strong high pressure to the north. Winds will be strongest over the outer waters north of Point Reyes. Fresh northerly swell accompanies the northerly winds. Winds ease Sunday night and switch to southerly starting Tuesday ahead of an approaching trough. Small southerly swell continues to move through the waters this weekend and through the upcoming work week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...AC MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea