Text Products for AFD Issued by MTR

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 150920
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
220 AM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 216 AM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Drier weather to persist. A warming trend is expected through the
first half of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 216 AM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Showers have moved out of the area with dry conditions expected
through the forecast period. The 00Z KOAK sounding shows a fairly
stable atmosphere in the wake of our departing low pressure system
with guidance indicating weak surface winds and high RH values are
expected overnight. As such, there is an increased likelihood for
patchy fog to develop overnight and last through the mid-morning. At
this time areas of fog are likely to remain isolated and not meet
dense fog criteria.

Near normal morning lows in the 40`s for most areas with some areas
in wind sheltered spots and higher elevations dipping into the upper
30`s. High temperatures on Monday will be fairly seasonal with
locations along the coast in the upper 50`s and locations inland in
the mid to upper 60`s. A few locations even look to potentially peak
in the lower 70`s. This kicks off a warming trend as high pressure
builds over the West Coast with morning lows on Tuesday expected to
be in the mid to upper 40`s and high temperatures in the 60`s along
the coast and in the 70`s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 216 AM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Looking ahead to mid-week, warmer, drier weather reigns as ridging
builds in from the west. A warming trend will begin mid-week with
Wednesday and Thursday looking to be the warmest days. Inland highs
will reach the mid to upper 70`s and a few locations may reach the
low 80`s. Moving into Friday temperatures will cool down slightly to
the upper 60`s to mid 70`s as upper level ridging becomes more zonal
and allows for increased onshore flow.

High pressure will keep precipitation pushed northward of the Bay
Area with the CPC highlighting below average precipitation for next
6-10 days. Ensemble guidance indicates that unsettled weather may
return towards the end of April but as of now confidence remains
low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024

MVFR CIGs affect all areas outside of the North Bay through much of
the night with widespread light winds. SF Bay terminals will see
CIGs dissipate into early Monday morning, while SJC, LVK, and the
Monterey Terminals stay MVFR until the late morning. Expect moderate
to breezy winds Monday afternoon that become light again into the
night.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR through the early morning with winds becoming
light. Expect VFR for the remainder of the TAF period with breezy
westerly winds Monday afternoon that become light into the night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR lasts into the late morning, then VFR.
Expect light to moderate westerly winds through late monday night,
before becoming light and variable.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1254 AM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Moderate to fresh northerly winds develop over the coastal waters
tonight creating hazardous conditions for small craft. After the
mid-to-upper level low moves further inland, ridging will start
to build with dry conditions expected to last through the end of
the forecast period. Winds begin to relax by late week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Canepa

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