778
FXUS66 KMTR 300513
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1013 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1202 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

High pressure brings quiet weather and slowly warming temperatures
this week. Breezy onshore winds will keep temperatures along the
coast cooler however. Cooler and more unsettled conditions return
for next weekend into next week with light rain chances in the
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 203 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Eastward moving high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean is
allowing for the pressure gradient to tighten, leading to strong and
gusty northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph, especially along the
immediate coastline and higher peaks. The primary impact from these
strong and gusty northwesterly winds are for mariners as Gale
Warnings and Small Craft Advisories are in effect until at least 3
AM Tuesday for all marine zones. High pressure is also allowing for
a warming trend to take place with interior locations reaching the
70s while the coast will be kept cool in the upper 50s due to the
persistent northwesterly wind. Skies will remain clear overnight
with lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A subtle ridge will be present over California through Friday,
allowing for clear skies and warm weather. While we continue to be
below Wind Advisory criteria, northwesterly winds will continue to
be strong and gusty, with elevations above 2,500 feet expected to
see gusts in the 40-50 mph range. Thursday will be the warmest day
of the week with the coast reaching the upper 60s and interior
locations reaching 80 degrees as the pressure gradient is allowed to
relax and winds begin to diminish. HeatRisk does reach minor
criteria on Thursday, so ensure to stay adequately hydrated and
apply sunscreen!

By Saturday, the pattern changes as an upper-level low approaches
the Pacific Northwest and its associated weak cold front drops into
California. There is uncertainty in location and strength of the
low, but the latest forecast update has extended Probability of
Precipitation chances further south. The rain is forecast to be
light and unimpactful with higher elevations reaching up to a
quarter of an inch. This trend of cooler and wetter weather is set
to continue into the first full week of May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Generally VFR through the TAF period with patchy stratus in the
higher elevations. Light to moderate onshore winds tonight will
build through Tuesday, but not expecting gusts as intense as those
seen earlier today. Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning should
largely remain VFR throughout the region.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. Breezy west-northwest
winds will gradually diminish overnight before resuming on Tuesday.
As of now, winds expected to gust up to 30 knots on Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Low confidence (20-30% probability) that a
patch of MVFR stratus forming over the northern Santa Lucias
impacts MRY Tuesday morning, and again late Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, generally VFR through the region
with breezy onshore flow developing Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1012 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A strong northerly pressure gradient will continue producing
hazardous conditions due to gale force wind gusts through mid-
week. Gale force wind gusts of 40 to 45 knots will be possible
over the outer waters and portions of the immediate coast near
Point Reyes and Point Sur. The strong winds will result in fresh
steep wind waves with heights reaching 10 to 12 feet. Conditions
will gradually improve late in the week into next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...SO

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