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000
FXUS64 KOHX 211745
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1245 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The light showers that have been effecting our southern counties
are pushing out and we are seeing cold air advection build over
the region. This is bringing clearing skies and we should see a
sunny afternoon. Highs will remain on the chilly side again today
pushing into the lower 60s. Overnight will bring clear skies and
light winds. This will cool us into the 30s and frost is likely
across the area by daybreak. A Frost Advisory has been posted for
all of Middle TN.

Upper level ridge builds in from the West early this week and that
will bring great weather with the start of a warming trend. Highs
will be about 5 degrees warmer tomorrow pushing into the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

We will see another cool night Monday night but should be a bit
warmer than tonight and frost is unlikely. Upper level ridge will
push east on Tuesday as a trough digs into the Great Lakes. This
will push a weak cold front into our area later Tuesday into early
Wednesday and may bring a few light spotty showers. The front
will have little effect on temperatures with highs in the 70s.
Upper level ridging builds in behind the trough and will bring
quiet weather for much of the remainder of the week with
continued warming temperatures. We should see them push back to
near 80 by the end of the week.

Things will start to become a bit more unsettled late week into
the weekend as long wave troughing sets up over the West. This
will push short waves into the Plains and with southwest flow we
will see deep Gulf moisture build back north. Ensembles disagree
with exact timing and placement of the short waves but do agree on
keeping the forcing to our northwest with us sitting on the
western edge of the upper level ridge. With dew points pushing
into the 60s we will see CAPE build in over the area. This will
result in thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast but
widespread convection isn`t expected through the weekend. Highs
will be warming well into the 80s also.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Due to sfc ridging influences and then transition to upper level
ridging influences after 22/12Z, VFR conditions will prevail thru
21/18Z. Sfc pressure gradient influences should support gusts up
to 20kts at times until diurnal influences weaken by around
22/03Z-22/04Z. Some sct/bkn cloudiness at times thru 22/18Z. Sfc
winds will generally range NW to NE. Exception CKV with enough of
a wind shift by around 22/15Z to support veering of winds to at
least E and possibly veer as much as to SW by 22/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      39  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    36  66  43  72 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     33  61  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       35  66  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     35  61  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      33  61  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   35  65  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   35  66  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        36  66  44  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....JB Wright