Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FNUS71 KOKX 170217
FWSOKX

Spot Forecast for Sarnoff Block D RX...NYS-DEC
National Weather Service New York NY
1017 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

631-924-0383

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure moves offshore into Wednesday. A slow moving warm front then
approaches from the southwest Wednesday night and moves nearby on Thursday.
RH levels will be in the 45 to 55 percent range Wednesday, with a wetting
rain developing Wednesday evening and continuing Wednesday night into
Thursday. Winds will prevail out of the SE on Wednesday, then becoming more
E Wednesday night into Thursday.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........53 at ignition...Max 58.
RH..................57 percent at ignition...Min 47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    East winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the southeast
                    6 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2800 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 9 mph shifting to the south 9 to 14
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /13500 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair
                    /23600 knot-ft/.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  43  53  62  72  77  82  87
Weather cov.....                CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   30  30  30  50
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............53  55  56  57  56  56  55  53
RH..............57  51  49  47  49  49  51  57
20 FT wind dir..080 090 100 130 140 150 150 160
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   6   7   7   6   6
20 FT wind gust.7   7   8   8   10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.6
Transp wind dir.090 100 120 150 160 160 160 160
Transp wind spd.8   8   9   9   10  12  13  14
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14  19  21  23  23  24  22  19
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    early in the evening, then rain showers early
                    in the evening.
CWR.................50 percent increasing to 80 percent early in
                    the evening.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 43.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the east
                    7 to 8 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 20 mph shifting to the east
                    around 20 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........88  90  92  92  93  93  93  92  92  93  93  94
Weather cov.....CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............50  50  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............51  49  48  47  46  46  45  45  45  44  44  44
RH..............61  68  74  79  86  86  93  93  93  96  96  93
20 FT wind dir..160 160 160 150 130 130 120 120 110 110 110 100
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   7   8
20 FT wind gust.10  10  8   8   8   8   10  10  11  12  13  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Transp wind dir.160 160 160 160 150 140 140 120 110 110 110 100
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  13  13  13  14  16  18  18  20  20
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13  6   3   6   10  13  12  8   4   3   3   4
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers early in
                    the morning, then rain showers likely early in
                    the morning. Chance of rain showers late in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................80 percent decreasing to 50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 52.
RH..................Min 74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 9 to 14 mph with gusts to around 21
                    mph.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 22 to 31 mph increasing to 29 to 32 mph
                    late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (58100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........93  92  92  92  93  93  93  93  94  93  93  93
Weather cov.....DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............80  80  60  60  60  60  60  60  50  50  50  50
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............44  44  45  46  47  48  48  48  48  48  48  48
RH..............93  93  86  83  79  74  74  74  74  74  74  74
20 FT wind dir..100 100 100 100 100 090 090 090 090 090 080 080
20 FT wind spd..9   10  11  12  13  14  14  14  14  13  12  11
20 FT wind gust.16  17  18  18  19  21  20  20  20  19  18  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4
Transp wind dir.100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 090 090 090 080
Transp wind spd.22  24  26  29  31  32  31  31  30  30  29  29
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3   3   6   16  31  45  50  51  52  54  57  58
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR

$$
Forecaster...JE
Requested by...Bryan Gallagher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411179.0/OKX
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bryan.gallagher@dec.ny.gov
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