Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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488 FXUS64 KOUN 292106 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 406 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A shortwave traveling within the 850-700 mb layer was observed over eastern New Mexico this morning and will very slowly move eastward across the TX panhandle this afternoon as the surface trough centered in eastern Colorado begins to deepen slightly. Surface winds will remain out of the south (west) and southeast (central) and speeds will increase to 15-20 mph over northwest into western Oklahoma overnight as the pressure gradient tightens. Patchy fog is possible early tomorrow morning across parts of southern and southeastern Oklahoma with the moisture advection. Fog could also develop across western Oklahoma, though confidence is less for this area. During the day tomorrow, the mean 850-700mb trough hangs out in the high plains as a potent upper trough crosses the north-central plains tomorrow. In response, low-level warm air and moisture advection increases and a dryline takes shapes once again over the TX panhandle. The dryline will become positively-tilted tomorrow afternoon with the northern extent reaching Woods/Alfalfa Counties and the southern extent possibly advancing into Hardeman/Foard Counties. Ahead of dryline, temperatures are forecast to rise into to 80/90`s and 50/60`s, respectively, by tomorrow afternoon. Skies should remain mostly clear until early afternoon, at which point, some mid- and high-level clouds develop. The environment ahead of the dryline is expected to become moderately to strongly unstable with MLCIN beginning to erode from southwest to northeast ahead of the dryline by early afternoon. Whether the CIN erodes over central Oklahoma is less certain, but it appears possible. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop ahead of the dryline tomorrow afternoon and evening. Fat CAPE profiles and sufficient bulk shear indicate the potential for large hail; inverted-V forecast soundings and high downdraft CAPE indicate damaging wind gusts are also possible. The tornado threat appears to be very low with weak 0-1 KM shear. Timing of storm development appears to be mid-/late- afternoon for areas generally near/west of Hwy 81 and evening for central Oklahoma. In addition, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible across a small portion of northwest Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 The aforementioned dryline retreats back into the panhandle on Tuesday night. A cold front approaching form the north could bring storm chances to northern Oklahoma late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, and guidance indicates this boundary should stay north of our area when frontolysis occurs. On Wednesday, mid-level flow shifts southwesterly as a shortwave trough digs over the intermountain west. Breezy southerly winds will continue as the surface trough remains in place. The dryline doesn`t appear to make much of an eastward progression, but shower and thunderstorm chances begin to increase on Wednesday due with continue`d WAA. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms ahead of the dryline. The upper trough ejects into the north-central plains on Thursday and pushes a cold front into our area. Showers and thunderstorms are likely with the potential for some severe thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday could lead to the potential for flash flooding. Shower/storm chances continue on Friday and into the weekend. Thompson && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 MVFR ceilings in KDUA will improve over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, VFR ceilings expected through the TAF period with some mid/high clouds. Winds will continue from the SE this afternoon then shift to the S by Tuesday morning. Breezy/gusty south winds are expected most locations on Tuesday. Some BR could develop again early Tuesday in KDUA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 59 85 65 82 / 0 20 20 40 Hobart OK 59 90 62 84 / 0 20 20 40 Wichita Falls TX 61 87 65 84 / 0 20 30 30 Gage OK 57 93 60 90 / 10 10 10 30 Ponca City OK 56 87 62 84 / 0 20 50 50 Durant OK 59 84 65 83 / 0 0 10 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...25