Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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980 FXUS64 KOUN 290709 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Some morning fog, some dense, across the south central/southeast will linger through mid-morning before dissipating. A dense fog advisory has been issued for portions southeast Oklahoma for this morning. Storm system will continue to move away from the area today with weak surface boundary washing out and south winds returning to the entire area by afternoon. A minor wave moves out of the Rockies by afternoon and perhaps an isolated storm may impact far northwest Oklahoma. Any storm that does develop is not expected to become severe as instability will remain limited. Otherwise, mainly sunny skies and warm temperatures expected across the area today. Similar conditions continue tonight as temperatures fall from the 80s back into the lower 60s and upper 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Tuesday looks to begin a stretch of a more active period with chances for severe weather as well as some heavy rainfall that could lead to an increased flood risk. First off for Tuesday, dryline gets reestablished across western Oklahoma with afternoon CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg and modest wind fields. Although no real strong upper wave is present, still appears that some isolated severe storms are possible by late in the day and into the evening hours. To the west of the dryline across northwest Oklahoma elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will occur as RH values drop into the teens with temperatures warming into the lower 90s. This area again missed out on any significant precip over the weekend. Increase in southwest flow occurs by Wednesday in advance of broad western trough. Some hint of minor wave moves out into the Plains Wednesday afternoon with dryline again tightening up near the 100th meridian and warm sector instability again in excess of 2500 J/kg. This along with strengthening wind fields expect to see scattered storms along and east of the dryline, some of these would likely be severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards. Also this activity could continue through the overnight leading to excessive rainfall and increasing risk of flooding. By this time a flood watch may be needed across parts of the area. By Thursday with the approach of the main upper trough, an associated surface front will surge south with continued chance for showers and storms along and south of the front. Conditions ahead of the front will again be conducive for severe storms and additional heavy rainfall. Front sweeps across the area with drier and cooler weather expected for Friday. However, this dry weather looks to be short-lived as models show subtropical jet brings energy toward the southern Plains from the Baja region and more potentially heavy rainfall for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 All terminals except KDUA will remain under VFR conditions through the entire forecast period. Expecting fog to develop after 09Z across southeast Oklahoma with terminal KDUA initially reducing to MVFR conditions then down to LIFR conditions due to lowering stratus between 13-16Z then returning to VFR conditions for the rest of the forecast. Surface winds will be light and northerly through 17Z then becoming southeasterly between 5-10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 80 61 85 66 / 10 0 20 20 Hobart OK 82 60 88 64 / 10 0 20 20 Wichita Falls TX 84 62 87 66 / 0 0 10 20 Gage OK 82 57 93 60 / 20 0 10 10 Ponca City OK 78 58 87 63 / 10 10 10 40 Durant OK 83 60 83 66 / 0 0 0 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ032- 041>043-046>048-050>052. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...68