Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 232318
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
618 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire danger will be heightened Sunday afternoon as gusty winds
  increase to 15-25 mph and relative humidity drops to 25-30%.

- Strong gradient winds will precede the approach of our next
  significant storm system Monday, with some modeling showing
  wind gust potential upwards to 50 mph. The best chance for
  heavy rains and a few thunderstorms will be with the system`s
  passage Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Clouds have scoured, now all eyes turn to the new week and our next
significant system. With high pressure shifting east, where it
anchors, we see Lee cyclogenesis begin to push this direction
tmrw, tightening the pressure gradient. The flow veers from
southeast to south as the system moves this direction, and winds
start cranking and only increase with time. We`ll see
consistent gusts 15-30 mph already in the late afternoon and
evening tmrw, begin to push Advisory thresholds overnight tmrw
night. The models have consistently signalled a narrow corridor
of 40-50 KT winds impacting the Bootheel vicinity by early
Monday morning, and a High Wind Watch for Monday was considered.
Whether Watch/Warning or Advisory, it`s increasingly looking
like a headline event for gradient Winds. Grand DESI has near
certain Advisory level (40 mph) with chance category members
showing gusts >50 mph. NAMNest supports 50+ mph wind gusts as
early as Monday morning. NAEFS-ESAT still pings 10 year Return
Intervals for its chart topping wind fields. For now, it appears
the collaborative stomach is to hold off headlines to ensure
the signal remains strong thru tmrw before pulling the triggers.

Another impact hazard with the system will be heavy rain. It`s
now looking like Monday night for the prefrontal convective
line, and with such timing, the instability field remains a
prominently lacking factor for strong storms. Surface dew points
struggle their way into the 50s, and supportive CAPE shifts
well to the north with the parent low, and then well to the
south over the lower Mississippi Valley, for stronger storm
potential. However, overall columnar moisture improves enough to
support broad swath 1-2" average rainfall, so if thunder can
produce some locally enhanced totals, some minor low land and
flood prone areal water issues may develop. WPC has us in a
MRGNL-SLGT risk for excessive rainfall.

An interesting trend in the model data today is the more robust
development of instability during the daytime Tuesday that may
promote a more uniform 2ndary line of convection, esp during the
heat of the day/peak instability. Lapse rates steepen markedly and
the GFS spits out 400-700 Joules of 0-1KM MUCAPE as the actual cold
front makes passage in our east Tuesday afternoon/evening. The
NBM picks up on this nicely and markedly beefs up our
pops/thunder chances there/then.

The convective chances effectively end west to east across the area
with the cold front`s passage Tuesday afternoon and evening and the
mean long wave trof marks its passage not long thereafter. Air temps
respond accordingly with a mid week cooling before high pressure
shifts east again and a mild warmup ensues by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Mixing in the boundary layer is beginning to increase with the
loss of diurnal heating as light NE winds are now expected into
the overnight. Satellite imagery also shows mid-high level
clouds building in from the west and will spread across the
region through tonight. Winds will veer to the E-SE on Saturday
as high pressure passes by to the north. Sustained winds around
10-14 kts with gusts 17-21 kts are possible.

The only caveat to the TAF forecast is at terminal KPAH as a
prescribed fire burn is now causing MVFR vsbys with HZ.
Unfortunately, the aformentioned light winds mean it may take
some time for the HZ to dissipate, but conditions should
gradually improve with the wind shift. Have included a TEMPO for
now given the poor dispersion.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DW


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