Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 190700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 19/1200 UTC THRU MAY 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



...PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES ARE NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS WITH PRIOR
RUNS...HOWEVER STILL SHOW SOME SPATIAL AND TIMING DISPARITIES WITH
THE AREAS OF MAXIMUM RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AT ANY
RATE...THE COMBINATION OF AN ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FEED (PW`S  OF 1
TO 1.5 INCHES OR 2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
MAY) ALONG WITH ROBUST UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MOD-HEAVY RAINFALL.
FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED A BIT BY THE LIKELY CONVECTIVE
CONTRIBUTION THROUGH DAY ONE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE AXIS OF
HIGHEST MUCAPES FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME THE SLOW MOVING...INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF FVRBL UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE/AGEOS DIVERGENCE WILL WARRANT SOME HIGH AREAL-AVG
AMOUNTS (1-3") OVER A BROAD AREA FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS E INTO
THE UPPER MS VLY THROUGH DAY 1...MUCH OF WHICH WILL BE ROOTED WITH
THE ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY EARLY SUN MORNING AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT.


...SERN U.S./MID ATLC STATES AND ADJACENT APLCNS...

A WEAK MID/UPPER LVL LO/TROF WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD
THRU THE FCST PD AND GENERATE SCTD AREAS OF SHWRS..SOME VRY
HVY..ACROSS THIS RATHER LARGE AREA OF THE NATION.  MODEL QPFS ARE
BEGINNING TO REFLECT THE WKNG UPPER SYSTEM AND ARE NOW SHOWING
LARGER DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITIES.  FOR THE QPF
TOOK A BLEND OF THE GEM REGIONAL AND UKMET WHICH HAVE BEEN DOING A
RELATIVELY GOOD JOB TO THIS POINT IN TIME HANDLING THIS SYSTEM.
STILL SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAINS TNGT
OVR NRN AL/W CNTRL GA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MID/UPR LVL COOL POCKET.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 538740 526780 516824 498848 498853 499858 500869 500875
      514960 514969 512973 511984 510990 505022 503026 503031
      503041 506059 499069 496071 497073 502081 514106 519121
      523128 525130 526135 527142 528145 533151 537160 538162
      537168 537175 539181 538183 533189 529190 524189 520192
      514192 507189 501187 496184 493181 489181 483179 480177
      477173 475172 471168 463168 459169 454166 452163 456155
      464156 469153 479154 483153 484147 483143 481141 477137
      472132 468128 459122 456122 454124 449127 441135 441138
      443141 447145 444150 441153 435153 433149 430148 427143
      421135 416130 414128 411128 405130 403133 404138 410148
      410153 406156 398148 390146 389142 382130 378120 379115
      382114 387114 390113 393106 393097 390093 385090 380087
      378083 375073 375068 382066 380061 376056 375054 378050
      381049 383046 386042 388037 386033 383035 378032 376027
      373023 372015 366001 370990 370985 369982 362982 356981
      352979 339980 333973 335970 335967 337963 341958 348957
      368920 374918 381916 391912 395910 399906 403903 407902
      409898 412898 415898 417895 418888 426880 426877 427875
      434872 439868 442865 444862 447859 448855 451849 454841
      456833 458817 462805 462801 461800 455801 452803 450808
      446810 439813 435811 434807 436802 438797 439796 446792
      446788 445784 442775 440771 438775 437781 430792 422798
      421802 418804 413818 411823 410827 410831 399836 392841
      383851 380855 379862 378868 379878 378881 375884 369886
      364884 359884 353883 344879 335874 331870 326864 324860
      322854 319848 315846 311841 309837 305833 300833 298836
      292835 288830 284828 273826 263824 258822 253818 250815
      249809 253801 257797 259795 268799 274798 277799 285796
      289796 292797 296796 301797 311797 315794 318790 323773
      331770 335766 341762 333747 334745 337742 343738 356731
      365722 370718 371714 375703 380692 385681 388670 391659
      398654 404653 414653 419652 426649 434650 438652 444652
      454654 476658 487662 493664 498663 504665 508664 511665
      516667 522673 538740
 0.01 485218 484218 482215 479212 476210 473209 472210 470212
      467211 466213 464215 462216 463219 466220 469221 472221
      475221 478221 481220 484219 485218
 0.01 437758 436754 434754 428755 425754 419756 414759 409764
      408767 408770 411778 412781 415783 420780 426777 428775
      430771 432766 434763 436761 437758
 0.25 498684 484678 477673 468670 460668 452668 443670 432677
      415683 405689 400694 398699 397704 397709 400715 404716
      409718 413718 416720 421717 425714 425709 425704 428704
      431704 432707 434709 435707 436704 438704 443717 449722
      453729 456732 459738 461745 464753 467760 474768 482775
      483776 479781 476785 476792 477802 480811 483817 486820
      489820 494817 498814 500808 501803 500798 496790 494782
      492779 501738 497709 499705 500698 499690 498684
 0.25 527174 525163 523156 521151 516142 509133 503127 499122
      497121 494118 495112 493104 496105 497102 496097 494091
      492088 485081 480072 478066 477063 478059 484052 488042
      490028 493002 499978 500971 500962 498945 497929 497913
      495899 492884 491876 488868 485853 481841 478841 476843
      473849 470856 467868 464876 458883 438893 434902 431906
      426909 418913 410919 401923 394926 384930 375935 368943
      363951 360959 361966 365973 373975 381978 389983 394985
      397988 403996 409000 416002 420003 424006 425009 423012
      417018 414022 413027 412036 413044 412048 410054 404062
      403072 407076 418080 420089 425098 429100 435101 441100
      455111 464112 475115 481116 491116 495121 495127 497144
      498149 500154 507160 516171 521175 527174
 0.25 400721 397719 396719 393719 390719 387719 386722 386725
      383727 383728 384731 386733 386734 389737 390737 393737
      396735 398733 400730 401729 402725 401724 400721
 0.25 388785 388780 386775 381772 378772 374775 368776 366772
      365766 363763 361764 353773 350776 346779 338781 331785
      328789 324795 323801 321807 317812 314814 310816 306817
      306821 311826 316829 326834 335839 341843 346845 348848
      348852 341856 339859 339862 343866 348867 355866 361866
      366863 369857 370851 379825 379808 387798 387790 388785
 0.25 356748 355745 352744 350746 349748 351751 352752 355751
      356748
 0.25 304820 297814 289812 282812 273812 268811 264809 261809
      259810 257813 261816 264817 273818 279820 288821 293821
      297823 300822 304820
 0.50 482722 481713 479706 473691 471687 469684 466682 458678
      451675 448675 445678 443681 442687 444694 451708 456718
      462731 468738 471739 474738 479733 481728 482722
 0.50 494923 493911 492897 490891 488886 485879 482873 478866
      475863 472867 470873 463889 453898 446903 443908 439914
      433919 426921 417923 412926 403927 381935 369945 364957
      367968 375971 385971 420987 430996 437993 439995 440001
      437008 433012 423020 420025 418030 418036 421045 421052
      420060 421069 425074 430076 437079 442080 444082 447088
      450096 452098 455098 460095 464095 467098 473099 478095
      478089 476085 473078 468072 467064 470058 474053 479046
      484030 487013 489001 491995 494986 495978 495964 495947
      493931 494923
 0.50 374796 373791 370789 364788 351787 345787 337789 330795
      327799 326807 323812 319818 319822 321824 328825 334829
      343836 349839 355841 360840 364835 367828 367819 369813
      372805 374796
 1.00 471717 470713 469712 465713 465716 467718 468718 471718
      471717
 1.00 488907 488898 485891 481887 477887 468894 460902 453910
      446919 441929 438939 434944 430947 426950 421952 417951
      412949 408949 405950 403954 406957 411960 415960 425963
      433965 439966 443969 451975 455978 457985 456993 455997
      453002 450007 443015 438019 434021 429024 427029 430044
      429047 429055 441069 444075 448080 452083 456080 459066
      461060 464055 470046 475034 481009 483995 488983 489975
      489967 489952 488937 487925 488907
 1.00 393953 393949 392945 390943 387943 384944 382944 381944
      378944 377945 376946 373949 371953 371955 370957 372960
      375961 377961 380960 383960 386959 388957 389957 391955
      393953
 1.00 357804 358800 355798 352798 349797 344796 339796 335800
      333804 331808 331812 334818 338820 341822 344823 349819
      352817 355813 357808 357804
 1.50 483909 482903 479899 472899 465904 458908 448924 446928
      446935 447941 449944 451947 450950 445951 440953 438955
      444958 453958 460963 464970 469981 473988 477985 480982
      482978 483971 485959 485948 483933 482918 483909
 1.50 470025 471016 469010 466010 463011 459013 451018 443023
      438028 438032 436036 436040 436048 438055 441058 450064
      455059 457055 462047 467036 470025
 1.50 383951 382950 379951 378952 379952 382952 383951
 2.00 478933 476926 473921 469917 467914 464910 459912 457916
      454920 452926 451931 454935 459936 462937 468935 474936
      477935 478933
 2.00 462030 460026 457026 452029 446029 441032 438036 438040
      440044 442048 444051 446052 448052 453048 455043 458039
      460034 462030

$$
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