Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
791 FGUS71 KPHI 141445 ESFPHI DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015- 019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045- 077-089-091-095-101-150245- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1045 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 6 This is the sixth in a series of annual Flood Potential Statements that provides an assessment of how ready or primed our forecast area is for river flooding. This outlook covers the middle/lower Delaware, Lehigh, Schuylkill, Passaic and Raritan River basins. It will provide information on flood threat contributors such as recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and its water equivalent, river ice conditions, streamflow, future precipitation and others. This assessment is valid between March 14 - 28, 2024. In the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of year, even when the overall river flood potential is considered to be low. This outlook does not discuss flash flooding, nor does it discuss any extent or severity of flooding. In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the overall river flood potential is above normal. Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the statement (FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York office. CURRENT FLOODING - None. There is currently no river flooding occurring within our service area. RECENT PRECIPITATION - Much above normal. Between 5.0 and 6.5 inches of liquid have been recorded over the last 30 days across the entire HSA. Precipitation departure maps can be found at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Water Supply tab). SNOW COVER - There is no snow on the ground across our forecast area. Depth and basin-average water equivalent estimates can be found at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Seasonal Interest tab) or www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under the National Analysis tab). RIVER ICE - We have no reports of river ice across our area of responsibility at this time. STREAMFLOW - Normal to much above normal. Real time water data is available from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) by visiting https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov. SOIL MOISTURE - Normal to above normal. Soil moisture monitoring charts (Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index) from NOAA`s Climate Prediction Center can be found at the following websites... www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_ monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov. GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground water levels across the region vary and are running below normal to above normal. Additonal information can be found at https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs in the area are mainly running normal. FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - High pressure to our south will drift off the Southeast coast through today. Low pressure will pass north of our area tonight through Friday. A pair of cold fronts will pass through Sunday and Monday before high pressure returns for the middle of next week. At this time and in general, it appears the region will see about 0.25 to 0.50 inch of rainfall over the next week. While this is not enough rain to drive river flooding, keep in mind the region remains primed for flooding with high levels of ground moisture and high streamflows in place. Under the current environment, a precipitation event that results in 1.50 to 2.00 inches of rainfall would likely cause river flooding. For week two, the 8 to 14 day outlook calls for above normal temperatures and precipitation. SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into consideration, the overall river flood potential is above normal across the forecast area. For complete weather information, visit our website at: www.weather.gov/phi && Overall Flood Potential...Above normal Current Flooding...None Recent Precipitation...Much above normal Snow cover...Below normal north, normal south River Ice...Below normal north, normal south Streamflow...Much above normal Soil Moisture...Normal to above normal Ground Water...Below normal to above normal Reservoir Conditions...Normal $$ Kruzdlo