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000
FXUS65 KPIH 271921
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
121 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
As expected, it`s been a rather dreary late April day across
eastern Idaho. Afternoon satellite imagery shows continued
widespread cloud cover across the area associated with an upper
low to our south. Still seeing lots of widespread light to
moderate rain showers (snow above 7500 ft or so) this afternoon
and these will gradually begin to taper off throughout the rest of
the day. Before it`s over however, could see just enough
instability to support some isolated thunderstorms across the
eastern highlands later today. Temps are definitely on the cool
side of normal with all the clouds and rain around. 40s and lower
50s are the norm for most of us but the Magic Valley has been a
touch warmer with less cloud cover and rain. This is where the
winds have been a bit breezy.

For Sunday, the low across the Four Corners continues to move away
from our region and into the Central Plains. This will allow our
upper flow to become more zonal clearing things out a bit. Models do
show some lingering moisture mainly across the eastern highlands
tomorrow setting up what appears to be a high PoP/low QPF kinda day
from them with lingering clouds and rain showers. Elsewhere we
should see a bit more clearing and warmer temps with some low 60s
potentially into the lower valleys. Higher terrain will remain in
40s and 50s. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday
The weather looks really now unsettled throughout the week.
Multiple areas of low pressure will impact central and eastern
Idaho, especially through midweek. Highs look to stay in the 50s
in the valleys midweek, with 30s and 40s in the mountains daily.
Each storm doesn`t necessarily to bring a ton of rain and mountain
snow our way, but each little push adds to our snowpack and also
to our rivers and creeks. One of the bigger impacts looks to be
Monday, but not in terms of precipitation. Trends continue to show
a solid WIND ADVISORY event across portions of the Snake Plain
and Magic Valley, potentially extending south into the South Hills
and Albion Mountains. Probability forecasts show winds solidly
above 45 mph, especially across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley.
There is a 60+% chance of exceeding 55mph in a narrow corridor
across the Lava Beds and INL, as well as around Yale. Elsewhere
across the Plain, those percentages rapidly drop to under 35% in
isolated spots. It will still be breezy on Tuesday, but quite a
bit less vs Monday. There is only a 40-70% chance of gusts over 45
mph across portions of the Upper Snake Plain and the Lava Beds.
Keyes


&&

.AVIATION...
Showers with a few thunderstorms remain possible through this
evening. Where rain has been more steady so far, we`ve see down to
IFR conditions at times. With things becoming more showery,
expect more breaks in the clouds and overall weather being VFR. IF
we can get a shower or storm over one of the TAF sites, we do
anticipate drops to IFR for brief periods of time. Winds will gust
at time to 25kts at BYI, PIH and IDA today, and 20-30kts Sunday.
At SUN, 10-20kt winds are expected until sunset. Of note, it does
appear that we should see the switch to a northwest wind sooner
than usual, today, between 22-00z (4-6pm MDT). Keyes

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Water levels remain elevated on the Portneuf River from Pocatello to
Chesterfield Reservoir where River Flood Warnings remain in effect
until further notice. Minor to moderate flooding is ongoing in this
area with both the Pocatello and Topaz river gauges forecast to
crest this weekend before dropping slightly heading into early next
week. Further north and west along the Snake River, water managers
have increased releases from upstream reservoirs leading to high
flows in excess of 10,000 cfs downstream from Palisades to Milner.
The Snake River near Heise and Snake River at Lorenzo gauges have
reached action stage as a result and are expected to be at that
stage until further notice. Willow Creek below Tex Creek above Ririe
Reservoir and the Blackfoot River above Blackfoot Reservoir both
also continue to be in action stage since Monday with no major
impacts seen elsewhere in our CWA as of Saturday afternoon. MacKay

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$