National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KPUB 250941
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
341 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds gusting to 55 mph, briefly higher, and high fire danger
expected for portions of the area today.

- There is a low risk of strong to severe storm or two across
  the far eastern plains this afternoon.

- Cooler and wetter conditions across the area this weekend as a
  new low pressure system moves across Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Overall, relatively quiet early this morning, though am keeping a
close eye on some low level stratus and fog that has developed
across eastern El Paso county in an axis of higher dew point air.
Lee surface low already in place has helped to usher in 40s to 50s
dew points well into Colorado this morning and will help to keep
this stratus/fog in place across the eastern plains.
Steadier/Stronger winds should help to limit the dense fog, but
would not be surprised to see some patchy dense fog this morning.
Additionally, forecast soundings in fair agreement with highlighting
the drier air and it`s push east today, which looks to start rather
early this morning. This should also aid in keeping any dense fog
limited this morning. Elsewhere, mid/high clouds also in place
across southeast Colorado, due to strong WAA ongoing across the
region. Despite the WAA this morning and even MUCAPE pushing 1500
j/kg in place, strongest ascent has already begun to push east with
this trend continuing this morning. So, don`t anticipate any precip
this morning.

An upper level low/trough lifting across the region today will bring
high winds with high fire danger, mountain snow, and a low risk of
strong to severe storms across southern Colorado. Of most concern
and is still where confidence is highest, is the high fire danger
across southern Colorado. Still not expecting areawide extreme
conditions, but will be rather close across the far southeast
plains. Highest concerns for the high end critical fire weather
conditions will be for areas along and south of Highway 50 this
afternoon into the evening. Areawide RH values well into the single
digits are likely along with west southwest winds gusting up to 50-
55 mph. There still looks to be a medium to high chance for a few
gusts to around 60 mph late this afternoon into early south of
Highway 50, as the mid/upper jet pushes overhead. In terms of High
Wind Warning criteria, don`t anticipate any headlines at this time
given the limited nature and short duration of these higher gusts.
At this point, the forecast of above normal temperatures will into
the 70s and 80s and dew points in the teens seems reasonable. As
noted in previous forecasts, still think some single digit dew
points will be possible.

As this trough pushes overhead late today into the evening, will see
an uptick in snow development across the Continental Divide,
especially the central mountains. This looks to be a small window of
development with overall minor amounts, however, would not be
surprised to see brief periods of moderate to maybe/briefly heavy
snow before this snow winds down during the overnight hours.
Additional precip chances this afternoon into early evening will
consist of small window for strong to severe storms across the far
eastern plains. This potential will be situated along and
east/northeast of a deepening surface low and where a ribbon of
higher moisture and instability will reside. Latest trends still
suggest that a quickly deepening lee surface low and deep mixing
will assist with pushing the higher moisture/instability to the
east/northeast prior to storm initiation. With this occurring, think
the chances for severe storms will be low, and with the severe
threat just to the east in Kansas. Given how close the gradient from
dry and stable conditions to very moist and unstable will be, won`t
stray from current messaging of the possibility for strong/severe
storms.

Lastly, on the back side of this upper trough, will see moisture
pivot south across the Pikes Peak region and Palmer Divide late this
evening and then shift east/southeast into early Friday morning.
This will allow an additional period of rain across the lower
elevations, and with snow across the higher elevations. Amounts
should remain low in this area tonight, but think a couple of inches
of snow across Teller is possible. As always, think a brief period
of snow across the Palmer Divide can`t be ruled out, but am fairly
confident of little to no snow accums and impacts tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Friday-Sunday...

The initial upper-level low will move past us by early Friday
morning. Cool, moist air will wrap around the back side of it as it
moves further east, allowing showers to linger across our far
eastern plains into the morning hours. Looking at the rest of the
day, the second upper low will begin to push towards our area from
the west. As it comes, more precipitation will move into the
mountains during the afternoon. Moderate to occasionally heavy
snowfall will pick up across the peaks of the Continental Divide,
before moving to our southeast mountains and the Palmer Divide later
in the day. High temperatures will be a factor in snow totals,
especially across the Pikes Peak Region. For the higher terrain,
most of the mountains and adjacent areas will be seeing 30s (at the
peaks) to mid-50s. Meanwhile, the eastern plains will see 60s-70s.
As the low moves and precipitation spreads eastwards, snow level and
snowfall rate are going to be major factors in what kinds of
accumulations we see. Right now our main areas of concern for snow-
related impacts are the Central Mountains and most of Teller County.
The Central Mountains should see upwards of 10 inches of snow or so
between Friday and Saturday, though some locally higher amounts are
possible. Meanwhile, Teller County will be seeing much less, 2
inches to about 6, but the heavy, wet nature of the snow could
result in some travel impacts and pose risks based on how heavy it
could be. Meanwhile, the top of Pikes Peak may see over a foot of
that same heavy, wet snow. That being said, the track and speed of
the incoming low is still in flux between models somewhat, so there
is time for amounts to change.

A northerly frontal surge will push across the plains Friday evening
into Friday night as the upper-low moves through our area, allowing
for precipitation to further spread over the Palmer Divide and into
eastern Colorado. Thanks to the warm high temperatures from the day,
that precipitation will fall as rain showers as opposed to snow.
Upslope over the Palmer Divide, coupled with some strong moisture
advection from the north thanks to lee cyclone formation at the
surface, has really increased QPF estimates over the last few days.
As the front pushes south, a low-level convergence axis will move
with it, allowing for precipitation to spread south across parts of
I-25 and east across parts of the eastern plains. Some of the
showers that form could be locally enhanced due to the frontal axis,
and while it is still a bit too early to say for sure a few
thunderstorms cannot be totally ruled out. At the very least, areas
along the front will see locally enhanced precipitation amounts
early on Saturday. High temperatures will also be a fair bit cooler
behind the front, with 50s-60s across most of the area and low-70s
near the CO-KS border.

The post-frontal airmass will keep Sunday on the cool, wetter side
of  things as the upper-low finished moving through Colorado and off
to the northeast. Snow will continue across the mountains while rain
showers persist over parts of the lower elevations, dwindling
sometime Sunday afternoon. The end time for the precipitation will
largely depend on the speed and track of the departing low and what
kind of wrap-around moisture we get on the back end. Models are
still showing some slight differences that far out, but overall late
Sunday afternoon is the general consensus for things starting to dry
out.


Monday Onwards...

Zonal flow will set in aloft over the area next week, leading to
drier and slowly warming conditions Monday and Tuesday. Some
embedded waves in the flow will begin to move in around midweek,
meaning that fire weather conditions could return along with some
slightly more unsettled conditions closer to the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions and dry weather are expected this morning across the
TAF sites, and for much of the day. Early morning fog currently to
the east of COS is reducing visibility to below one mile at times.
While this fog is in place at this time, anticipate it to remain
east of COS while dissipating through the early morning hours. VFR
conditions and clear skies once again expected through the morning
into the afternoon. Will see an increase in clouds later this
afternoon, as an upper level system will move across the region.
This will result in showers across the higher terrain this afternoon,
but think any development will remain tied to the higher terrain. The
early morning lighter winds in place will increase through the
morning hours, with gusty west southwest winds expected this
afternoon. Think the strongest gusts will be across PUB and ALS,
where gusts in the 30-35 kt range are likely. VFR ceilings lower
later this evening, with mid clouds in place at all sites. Rain
expands in coverage later this evening, mainly for COS and PUB.
While generally light with vis staying 6sm or higher, would not be
surprised to see vis fall in the 3-5sm range at times, before this
rain shifts east of the terminals early Friday morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
evening for COZ224-225-232-233-237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ