952
FXUS61 KRNK 281734
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
134 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will track from the Central Plains to
the Great Lakes today and Monday while high pressure was off the
East Coast. This system will push and cold front through the region
on Tuesday bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1. Abnormally warm temps to continue.

Strong ridging remains the dominant force across the area with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies under the subsident airmass.
While afternoon max temps today should warm up decently reaching
near 10 deg above climo norms, we shift even more on the western
side of the ridge for Monday and a persistent SW fetch. Resultant
max temps Monday afternoon are progged to rise into the low to mid
80s for many locations and may even flirt within a few degrees or so
of some local record highs. Cloud coverage should generally be
partly cloudy to mostly clear with a diurnal cu field and possible
cirrus, though some lower stratocu or patchy fog could be across
some of the valleys and far north in the early morning.

Forecast confidence is high.

Climate Records Summary

Monday 04/29/2024
Site  MaxT Year  MinT Year  LoMax Year  HiMin Year
KBLF    86 2017    30 1946     42 2008     66 2017
KDAN    91 1981    35 2010     49 1999     68 2017
KLYH    88 1974    31 1976     50 1999     66 1956
KROA    89 1915    32 1944     49 1968     67 2017
KRNK    86 2017    25 1967     45 1988     59 2021

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.
2. Scattered showers and storms Tuesday.

Mid level ridging holds over the southeastern coast Monday into
Tuesday, with a surface high sitting offshore of the Carolinas, will
start off the work week. A shortwave trough and associated surface
frontal system will track across the area through Tuesday.
Southwesterly flow around the surface high and ahead of the cold
front will bring warmer and more moist air into the area to sustain
warmer than normal temperatures for Tuesday, albeit a few degrees
cooler than Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
along the cold front Tuesday afternoon and into the evening, with
the highest probabilities for convection along and west of the Blue
Ridge, as the front reaches the western counties in the forecast
area near the peak heating of the day. Low level shear is forecast
to be between 25 to 35 knots across the area, as some deterministic
models have the cold front weakening as it approaches and then
crosses the area. That being said, not expecting widespread coverage
of showers and storms.

Following the frontal passage, surface high pressure returns to the
area, and mid level ridging builds back in, continuing the above
normal temperatures for the middle of the work week. As the 500mb
shortwave moves offshore Wednesday, could see some lingering showers
in the east, but Wednesday should be dry and warm for most.

Overnight lows will be on the mild side, mainly in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures continue through the week.
2. Daily chances of showers and storms, greatest coverage Saturday.

Surface high pressure over the northeast US will slide offshore
during the second half of the work week, and winds will turn
easterly then southeasterly Thursday into Friday. The 500mb trough
will have moved off the Mid Atlantic Coast by late in the week.
Thus, may see some isolated showers in the eastern most counties of
the forecast area Thursday afternoon, although confidence in this
low, as high pressure should suppress most of the precipitation. By
the end of the week and into the weekend, another 500mb trough will
dig southward into the central Plains region. A stronger cold front
approaches the area Friday and into the weekend as the associated
surface low deepens and tracks into the Great Lakes region. As the
previous forecast discussed, the timing of this front has slowed in
recent model runs, resulting in the better coverage of showers and
storms Friday night and through Saturday, but uncertainty still
remains in the timing of this front. Surface high pressure pushes
back into the area from the west for Sunday following the frontal
passage.

High temperatures through the period will be in the upper 70s
to mid to upper 80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions expected for most sites through period. Some
diurnal cu field today near 5 kft and again for Monday with
possible cirrus, otherwise KLWB could have some reduced VSBYs or
lower cigs and possible fog development for Monday morning.
Overall winds mainly SW 4-10 kts and some decreasing in the
overnight period.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Monday should be mainly VFR with southwest winds. NW winds
arrive behind a cold front crossing the area Tuesday with
TSRA and MVFR or lower ceilings. Widely scattered
SHRA/TSRA will be possible again each afternoon on Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AMS/AB