141
FXUS64 KSHV 131739
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1239 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Much quieter conditions this morning compared to 24 hrs ago, as we
await the arrival of the upper trough over Ern KS, with its
attendant trough axis extending farther S into the Srn Plains.
The mid-morning sfc analysis reveals that a warm front extends
from the TX Hill Country near SAT ENE into SE TX/S LA along a UTS,
to just S of a JAS/DRI, to OPL/BTR and Lake Pontchartrain line,
with good agreement amongst the short term progs suggesting that
this bndry will not move much farther N today given the lack of a
deep Srly low level component to the wind ahead of the approaching
trough. In fact, the mid-morning satellite and mosaic radar
imagery indicate that strong/severe convection has developed near
and WSW of SAT along the front, associated with a perturbation
aloft along the base of the trough. The various CAMs and other
deterministic progs are in good agreement with this convection
growing upscale into a MCS by this afternoon along the front,
traversing E into SE TX and eventually S LA by early evening.
Thus, the greatest severe threat appears to have shifted a bit
farther S across SE TX/S LA during peak heating/greatest
instability, although isolated strong/severe storms will can`t be
ruled out across the Srn tier counties of Deep E TX/Cntrl LA. The
threat for heavy rainfall also appears to be shifting just S of
the region as well, but will maintain the Flood Watch as is as
much of the Watch area remains saturated after 3-5+ inches of rain
that has fallen since Sunday morning.

Aside from possible isolated convection that may develop mainly in
the afternoon over all but the Srn zones, mostly dry conditions
are expected given the lack of a sfc/upper level focus, with the
warm front remaining to our S, and a weak cold front over Cntrl
OK expected to remain just NW of the region by late afternoon.
Thus, have toned down pops to slight chance/low chance over much
of the area, with mid and high chance pops across Deep E TX/Srn
sections of NCntrl LA where impacts from the pending MCS may see
impacts late in the day.

Low cigs look to also persist through the day as well, and thus
have lowered max temps some 3-5 degrees areawide. Pop adjustments
will likely be needed this evening as well, but will handle that
in the afternoon forecast package.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

For the 13/18Z TAFs, IFR to MVFR CIGs persist at are area
terminals. Cloud decks look to show limited improvement through
the course of this forecast period, with the caveat of developing
showers and thunderstorms which look on course to impact our east
Texas and north Louisiana zones this evening, bringing impacts
most likely to KLFK, KTYR and KLFK, spreading north and east
later in the evening and diminishing towards morning. At
terminals where precip concludes a few hours before daybreak, fog
development will be possible. Variable winds look to become
southerly overnight before returning to westerly and northwesterly
by the end of this forecast period.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  85  62  89 /  30   0   0   0
MLU  65  85  62  87 /  40  10   0   0
DEQ  59  81  56  86 /  30  10   0   0
TXK  64  83  59  88 /  30   0   0   0
ELD  62  82  59  87 /  30  10   0   0
TYR  64  84  61  88 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  64  84  61  89 /  20   0   0   0
LFK  64  86  61  90 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ017-018-020-022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ149-152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...26