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000
FXUS64 KSJT 231803
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
103 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Thunderstorms may develop east of Lubbock late afternoon along a
weak cold front, then move southeast into the Big Country during
the late afternoon/evening hours. While it is a conditional
forecast and coverage may not be extensive, large hail of 2+
inches and 65 mph winds may be possible due to the instability and
shear. Storms may move along a Sweetwater to Roby to Haskell line
5 to 6 PM, and possibly along I-20 in the Abilene area after 7
PM. The storm prediction center has a slight risk along north of a
Sweetwater to Abilene to Baird line, and a marginal risk south to
Robert Lee...Winters and Cross Plains.

Otherwise warmer today, with highs reaching into the 80s, with 90
degrees possible in western portions of the Concho Valley and Big
Country. This morning, stratus will advect north near the I-20
corridor, before scattering out late morning. Mild overnight with
low clouds developing earlier, late evening and overnight, and
spreading north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

On Wednesday, upper level ridging will move into the area,
continuing the warm-up for the region. To our west, the dryline
will sharpen up. Temperatures may warm enough to break the cap for
a few isolated storms to develop, but confidence is very low in
significant coverage of these storms.

Thursday into the weekend, our weather will generally become more
active. upper level pattern becomes more active. By Thursday
afternoon, an upper level trough will be moving into the Four
Corners region, putting our area in southwest flow aloft. A
dryline will sharpen to our west at the surface with a warm, moist
air mass in place over west central Texas. Thunderstorms, some of
which may be severe, could develop off of the dryline, and affect
areas north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line during the late
afternoon and evening. The dryline is expected to move through
Thursday night into Friday. This should keep our area dry for the
most part Friday, but showers and storms may still affect eastern
areas Friday afternoon/evening.

Another upper level low will quickly follow behind Thursday`s
trough. Models show surface wins quickly turning back to the
south/southeast Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing Gulf
moisture back into our area. Fast southwest flow aloft with
embedded shortwaves, along with an advancing Pacific cold
front/dryline will allow for another chance for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. Once again, there is a
chance for some of these storms to become strong to severe.

A return to zonal flow aloft is expected from Sunday into Monday,
which should bring quieter weather to the region. A cold front
may move through the area next Sunday night.

Temperatures will be generally near normal or warmer with highs
mainly in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, and lows mainly in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Morning stratus has cleared out resulting in VFR conditions area
wide. There continues to be the possibility of isolated showers
and thunderstorms developing late this afternoon mainly north of
I-20. Will keep any mention of thunder out of the KABI TAF but
will monitor radar trends this afternoon and evening and amend
the TAF if necessary. Otherwise, MVFR conditions are possible
again late tonight and into the morning hours Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     60  84  67  85 /  20  10  10  10
San Angelo  62  89  67  86 /   0  10  10  10
Junction    64  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   61  83  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
Sweetwater  60  84  67  84 /  20  10  20  10
Ozona       62  86  66  83 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       64  83  67  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04