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000
FXUS62 KTAE 190519
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
119 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The forecast looks to be holding steady this evening, updates do
not appear necessary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A well-established subtropical ridge over the Gulf attendant to
surface high pressure maintains continued mostly rain-free weather
and unseasonable warmth/mugginess. However, a somewhat subtle
shortwave evident on afternoon vapor imagery near ARKLATEX is
forcing convection over the Central MS Valley. Although this
activity should skirt to our north as it gets shunted by the ridge,
isolated light showers possibly graze the Wiregrass and northern-
tier GA counties tonight. Rain chances remain low given modeled
soundings showing a dry layer below 600 mb that is more supportive
of virga.

The combo of light/calm winds amidst a moist boundary layer prompts
returning fog/low stratus late tonight into tomorrow morning for
much of our FL counties and SE AL. Some of the fog may become dense,
so it will not be surprising if an advisory is issued either by the
evening or overnight shift. Conditions should improve by mid-
morning. Otherwise, muggy 60s are forecast for tonight`s low
temperatures under mostly cloudy skies. These readings are up to
about a dozen degrees above normal.

For tomorrow, the main story will be anomalously hot inland
temperatures as many locations are poised to reach the upper 80s or
experience their first 90-degree day of the year (late by around a
couple weeks, on average). Places like Tallahassee or Valdosta flirt
with daily record highs for April 18th at 92 and 90 degrees,
respectively. The culprits are large-scale subsidence from strong
ridging (i.e., sunny skies), and forecast 500-mb heights/850-mb
temperatures at or near the 90th percentile, per KTLH sounding
climo. The coastal strip will be noticeably cooler thanks to an
expected afternoon seabreeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Zonal mid-level flow prevails into the weekend as several upper
level disturbances pass through the region. The first wave will
pass through Friday night with showers to our north diminishing
through the overnight hours as the shortwave passes from west to
east across central AL/GA. These showers will likely bring a
weakening frontal boundary into our AL/GA counties for Saturday
afternoon as another disturbance moves through from west to east.
Where this boundary sets up, in addition to southwesterly flow
redeveloping in the afternoon, will determine where scattered
showers and possibly a few storms end up developing during the
day. Coverage remains around 30 to 40% with the best activity
likely across our AL/GA counties and rain chances tapering off to
around 10 to 20% along and just north of Interstate 10. For
temperatures, warm and mild conditions continue for this time of
year. Cloud cover could make the forecast a little challenging,
especially across AL/GA, but expect near-record temperatures
again, especially across our Florida counties where a 2nd day of
90 degree temperatures is possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A repeat of Saturday can be expected on Sunday as the last
disturbance in the zonal flow aloft moves through. This last
disturbance will see a little better support aloft so expect
shower and thunderstorm coverage to be more widespread in the
afternoon and evening as the wave moves through. Despite much of
the shower activity occurring behind/along the main front, the
stronger forcing and weak shear in place could lead to an isolated
strong storm or two on Sunday evening, mostly across our Florida
counties where the best low-level instability is forecast.
However, even here the threat appears on the low end with an
isolated possibility for hail and a strong wind gust.
Temperatures will range from the upper 70s across southeast
Alabama to the upper 80s across the southeast Big Bend of Florida.

Cooler temperatures move in for the start of next week but with no
significant systems on the horizon for much of the following week,
the warm up will recommence and we`ll likely be back in the mid to
upper 80s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

As a patch of high clouds moves through the service area, behind
the clouds, low cigs/vsbys developing over southern Alabama. As
this area continues eastward, am expecting more development into
our SE AL and FL panhandle areas including DHN-ECP, and perhaps
TLH if the clouds vacate in time. This scenario is supported by
short range models building IFR/LIFR conds at DHN-ECP-TLH from
west to east before dawn. ABY and VLD may be too far east and
north but will metwatch for amendments. Most likely time is 08-14Z
for impacts at the specified terminals. VFR expected by late
morning through the evening hours with west to southwest winds
below 12 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Favorable boating conditions expected into Sunday of the upcoming
weekend with light winds around 5 to 10 knots from the south and
seas around 2 feet. Rain and storms should stay away from marine
waters until Sunday afternoon/evening when a cold front moves
through with thunderstorm chances increasing through the day.
After the front moves through northwesterly flow takes over for
the start of next week, possibly bringing a brief period of
cautionary conditions before favorable boating conditions return
on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Fog will be a concern tomorrow morning for much of the FL counties
into SE AL. The greatest potential for dense fog is over parts of
the Panhandle. Surface high pressure maintains mostly dry weather
and sunny skies, but unseasonably hot inland temperatures are
expected with widespread upper 80s to around 90 degrees forecast.
Otherwise, initially west winds turn southwesterly via the afternoon
seabreeze along/south of the I-10 corridor. Relative humidity
bottoms out roughly between 40 & 45% away from the immediate coast.

Expect a similarly hot start to the weekend, though an approaching
front from the northwest prompts returning rain chances with the
potential for thunderstorms mainly north of the FL state line
Saturday afternoon. On Sunday, the front moves into our region and
ushers much better potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Pockets of wetting rain are possible in addition to
gusty/erratic winds. The front will also serve as a boundary between
west winds ahead of it and north winds behind it with a rather sharp
NW/SE temperature gradient.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Rainfall chances increase for the upcoming weekend, but the
progressive and scattered nature of these systems will likely lead
to less than a half inch of rainfall areawide.

The areal flood warning remains for Leon County for the areas of
Capitola, Chaires, and Baum of northeast Tallahassee. County
emergency management reports hazardous standing water and several
roadways remain closed.

In addition to the Apalachicola, St Marks, Withlacoochee, Aucilla,
and Ochlockonee rivers remaining in flood, the Suwanee has now risen
into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville, and Branford. Expect
possible rises to continue down the Suwannee with additional
points possibly reaching flood in the days ahead.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   65  89  66  86 /   0  20  10  40
Panama City   66  81  66  79 /   0  10   0  50
Dothan        65  85  65  76 /   0  30  10  60
Albany        66  87  65  79 /   0  40  20  60
Valdosta      66  90  66  86 /   0  20  10  40
Cross City    62  87  63  85 /   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  67  78  67  77 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs