Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 211231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Mar 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 21-Mar 23 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 21-Mar 23 2024

             Mar 21       Mar 22       Mar 23
00-03UT       3.33         2.67         1.67
03-06UT       2.33         2.00         1.67
06-09UT       3.33         2.33         1.33
09-12UT       2.67         2.33         1.33
12-15UT       3.67         2.33         1.00
15-18UT       3.67         2.33         1.67
18-21UT       3.67         2.33         1.33
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         1.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely 21 Mar due to CME
effects from the events of 17 Mar.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 21-Mar 23 2024

              Mar 21  Mar 22  Mar 23
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 20 2024 2255 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 21-Mar 23 2024

              Mar 21        Mar 22        Mar 23
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to
M-class flare activity will persist through 23 Mar primarily due to the
flare potential exhibited by AR 3615.


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