Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 201129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
529 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Surface lee trof has developed over the Central Plains this morning,
keeping winds up overnight and holding lows up in the 40s. WV
imagery depicts generally zonal flow over Kansas, with several small
embedded shortwaves set to move over the area today, and a leading
impulse in the larger scale upper trof coming across toward early
morning Tuesday ahead of the next frontal passage.  Impacts on
sensible weather are generally breezy conditions, with highs rising
into the lower to middle 60s this afternoon, and another night of a
mixed boundary layer keeping lows in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

A surface front passes across the area early Tuesday morning and
gusty winds are once again expected Tuesday morning into the
afternoon.  Gusts up to 30 mph are expected.  Winds calm down
considerable overnight as surface high pressure makes its way over
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Chilly temperatures Tuesday
night in the low 20s are followed by cooler high temperatures
Wednesday, only making it into the mid to upper 40s.  A quick warm
up is seen Thursday and Friday ahead of another surface boundary
with highs in the 60s both days.  Another dry front moves through
the area late Friday night, bringing temperatures closer to seasonal
values over the weekend.  No precipitation is expected in the
extended period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 528 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

VFR conditions through the period with winds the primary concern.
LLWS until the boundary layer mixes out around 15z, and remains
gusty until around sunset. Winds will shift around to the north
with the next incoming front, but doesn`t impact terminals until
the far end of this forecast period.


Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Have made some adjustments to winds and dewpoints, as models seem to
be under representing winds and overdoing dewpoints as we mix into
the boundary layer through the day.  This results in relative
humidities falling into the lower to middle 20s this afternoon.
Winds are forecast in the 15-25 mph range with gusts ranging from
20mph in NC KS to around 30 mph in east central Kansas, and when
coupled with the low RH values and dry/cured vegetation, this brings
the rangeland fire danger index up into the very high category for
areas along and south of I70 as well as locations along and west of
Highway 81.   Also to consider is the wind shift that occurs later
tonight - after a day of breezy southwest winds, the incoming front
will shift winds around to the north generally by sunrise on




LONG TERM...Heller
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