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000
FXUS63 KTOP 200439
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR AVIATION FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. UPPER JET IS NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA UNDER THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION ENHANCING LIFT
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 8 TO 9 DEGREES CELSIUS HAVE OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST KANSAS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE
VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO
50 KTS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY 100 TO
150 M2/S2 IS FORECAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CWA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE TOWARD
MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH CENTRAL TO
THE MID 60S EAST CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

UPPER LOW WILL CUTOFF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT THERE WILL BE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION
GRAZING THE NORTHERN CWA UNTIL THE UPPER LOW SPINS EASTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE BOUNDARY THAT GETS PUSHED
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS WILL LINGER WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA UNTIL THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THE
BOUNDARY AND DRIER AIR SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
80S...THEN COOLING INTO GENERALLY THE MIDDLE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL WARRANT A REINTRODUCTION OF CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS THIS OCCURS...HIGHS
SHOULD BEGIN TO EDGE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SETUP ACROSS EC KS MON MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TOP AND FOE MAY BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WITH MHK
LIKELY DRY. OTHER THAN IN THE THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...PHILLIPS