Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 201953
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
253 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Ridge axis on water vapor imagery centers over the western high
plains this afternoon as two shortwave troughs were noted off the
northwest coast and the Midwest regions respectively. Area of high
pressure at the surface is gradually spreading south and east through
KS under light northeasterly winds and highs warming into the lower
and middle 70s.

Surface ridge axis slides over northeast Kansas this evening as
winds shift to the east and become light. A decent inversion near
the surface develops once again with clear skies creating conditions
for patchy fog again Tuesday morning. The inversion on forecast
soundings from around the area is not as strong compared to last
morning so not entirely confident in fog being widespread. Any fog
should quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise as light
southeasterly winds return during the afternoon. A similar airmass
in place under weak flow will bring another warm afternoon to the
CWA. Raised highs tomorrow a few degrees in the lower and middle 70s
as it appeared short term guidance was running slightly cool for
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Upper ridge extending over the plains into Canada early Wednesday
shifts eastward through the day as next upper trof crosses the
northern and central Rockies.  Outside chance in the early morning
hours for a shower or thunderstorm along the mid level front in the
overnight low level jet, but chances were too low to add to the
forecast just yet.  By late day, precipitation chances spread into
the north central counties, then across the remainder of the area
overnight. Still looks like better lift and best rainfall chances
are in the midnight to 7am window on Thursday, although amounts have
come down somewhat with generally a quarter to half inch of rain
possible with locally higher amounts. Very little instability in the
column aloft, but enough to warrant a slight chance for some thunder
ahead of the trof passage. Post frontal showers may linger a bit
into the morning hours but expect to dry out for the afternoon.
Airmass temperature change is not significant this far south of the
better energy, with highs in the 70s still expected both Wednesday
and Thursday.

Broad upper ridge over the southwest states amplifies over the
plains through the weekend, before southwesterly flow returns on
Sunday as next upper trof approaches for Monday.  As a result,
middle to upper 70s are on the slow increase through Sunday.  By
Monday could start to see influence of next front, but this far out
only have a slight drop in high temperatures and will keep a dry
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as light northerly winds become
variable tonight as sfc high pressure shifts southeast through the
area. While sfc inversion is not as strong as previous morning,
clear skies and calm winds may develop ground fog aft 10Z. Began
mention with MVFR and if guidance continues to trend this way,
perhaps IFR or lower visibilities in the next updates.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen





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