Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 181143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
643 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Convection was ongoing early this morning in north central Kansas
into south central and southeast Nebraska associated with a slow
moving wave. Isolated convection was occurring at 08Z within the low
level jet across central Kansas. The wave and associated energy will
move slowly eastward through the morning hours today exiting
northeast Kansas this afternoon. Another hot day is expected today
as temperatures rise back to near the century mark in north central
and central Kansas with highs in the 90s elsewhere. Afternoon heat
indices are expected to top out in the 98 to 106 range with the
higher readings across north central and northeast Kansas. Today
marks the first day of an excessive heat warning for the area.
Tonight there is a chance of thunderstorms mainly north of
Interstate 70 as a few storms may move southeast out of Nebraska
later tonight. Models differ on the southward progression of a
frontal boundary with the concensus keeping it north of the Kansas
border through 12Z Wednesday. GFS looks to suffer from some
convective feedback and seems a bit overdone with its QPF. Lows
tonight will be warm with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Any lingering overnight convection dissipates Wednesday morning. A
few mid and high clouds may linger over north central Kansas,
otherwise mostly clear skies will aid in hot temperatures climbing
to the upper 90s. Deepening lee trough off of the CO Rockies
promotes deeper mixing within the boundary layer with wind speeds
Wednesday through Friday between 10 and 20 mph sustained. Thursday
may be the hottest afternoon as winds veer more towards the
southwest, boosting h85 temps from 23-26C. This translates towards
the sfc heat indices in the 103 to 109 range each afternoon through
Saturday. For this reason, have kept the heat warning headline as is
for the entire cwa.

Upper wave pattern begins to shift as several shortwave troughs
traverse the central and northern plains beginning late Friday.
Frontal boundary that was held up in NE, shifts southeast during the
day Saturday, with moisture pooling along the boundary as it bisects
the CWA. Could see a few thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon with
better chances Sunday afternoon and evening as a stronger vort max
dips southeast over the area. Extended guidance differs greatly
towards the end of the week through Tuesday. Overall pattern remains
active and cooler with the stationary front in the area through at
least mid week before ridging from the west begins to build back.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. Scattered TSRA
may affect MHK terminal from 13Z-16Z this morning. TSRA is
expected to not affect TOP and FOE at this time. Winds southerly
to southwest will increase to around 12 kts around 17Z, then
decrease after 01Z.


Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT Saturday for



LONG TERM...Prieto
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