Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 280538
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1138 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Water vapor imagery this afternoon has the main upper trough
lifting northeast out of Wyoming while an upstream trough was
surging southward over western Oregon. Subsidence was noted on the
back side of the first wave, quickly pushing into eastern Kansas
this afternoon. This may impact qpf amounts with overall short
term models struggling to produce rainfall amounts over a quarter
of an inch. Current regional radar shows scattered showers with
isolated embedded thunderstorms from southern Nebraska through
central Kansas. Sfc low is still back across northwest Kansas with
a dryline or cold front stretched from Garden City through Colby.
Best chances for seeing these showers is with the current swath
over central Kansas between now and 6 pm. Instability within these
showers is fairly weak with mixed layer CAPE being 200 j/kg or
less. Higher instability up to 600 j/kg is just behind the precip
swath. Wind shear is quite strong with low level SRH at 300 to 400
m2/s2. With these stronger, veering winds in the lower levels,
there is a small chance an isolated storm forms within the better
ML CAPE and produces damaging wind gusts. A marginal risk for
severe weather remains over north central Kansas (per the 1630Z
outlook). Second concern is the strong winds currently sustained
at 20 to 25 mph with gusts occasionally in excess of 40 mph. While
not quite as strong for an advisory, they will continue through
early evening.

Precipitation ends shortly after 00Z judging by recent trends and
short term models. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy overnight as
the upper system phases and lifts directly northward. Winds veer to
the west and gradually dissipate by midnight to near 10 kts.
Residual clouds from the stacked upper low to the north during the
day Monday may reach as far south as northern Kansas, otherwise
skies are partly sunny with highs warming back to near 60 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Large scale upper low pivots slowly across the Central Plains
into the Great Lakes through late in the week. This keeps cooler
temperatures advecting into our area, with highs in the 50s
Tuesday dropping into the 40s for the remainder of the work week,
with lows falling into the 20s late week as well. Next upper
longwave trof moves onshore and extends from the northern rockies
into Baja by late in the day on Friday. Energy dropping into the
southern stream gets cut off by the northern branch, and at this
time appears more likely to keep precip and clouds south of the
area for the early weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

MVFR cigs are expected at TOP and FOE terminals through 07Z then
VFR. WInds south to southwest around 11kts through 15Z then
becoming west southwest around 10kts through then end of the
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53



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