Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 260811

National Weather Service Topeka KS
311 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

At 2 AM a line of showers and thunderstorms extended from near
Hiawatha, southwest through Alma and then southwest to west of ICT.
The intensity of the line has been decreasing through the early
morning hours. A small area of northern and western Geary County
received 2.5" to 3.5" of rainfall from 1200 AM through 130 AM.
Junction City reported some street flooding and an Urban and small
stream flood advisory remains in effect for northern and western
Geary county through 445 AM. Most areas will only up to a half inch
of rainfall through the early morning hours across northeast and
east central KS, with some localized areas receiving an inch of

An upper level trough was located across eastern NE with an upper
trough axis extending south-southwest across east central KS. Once
the upper trough axis shifts east of the CWA and a weak front moves
through, the line of storms should move southeast of the CWA by
around 10 AM. The line of storms should be through Topeka around 6
AM. Skies will gradually clear from west to east across the CWA
during the mid and late morning hours.

A drier and slightly cooler airmass will move southeast across
eastern KS behind the surface front. Highs will Today will reach the
lower to mid 70s. Clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to
drop into the mid to upper 40s. Winds will become calm and there
could be some patchy ground fog developing near sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

On Thursday into Friday an upper high centered over the southwest US
will allow warm temperatures to spread northward behind the front
currently moving through the area. Guidance continues to trend
warmer for Friday with highs forecasted in the lower to mid 80s.
Another frontal boundary will approach the area on Friday therefore
winds will be gusty out of the southwest. That front will gradually
move southward on Saturday before getting a better push on Sunday.
Highs on Sunday drop into the lower to mid 70s, and no precip is
expected over the weekend. A decent shortwave will progress over the
northern US on Monday bringing another frontal boundary southward.
Highs on Monday again reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, and most
locations will remain dry. The pattern becomes more southwesterly
aloft bringing a return for storm chances on Tuesday into


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

TS will impact MHK through 07Z, with scattered TS possible through
08Z. The most likely time for TS at TOP/FOE is in the 07-09Z time
frame with some potential to linger into 10Z. With TS, will have
periods of reduced vis in heaviest rain areas, but otherwise
expect VFR through the TAF period. Will also have LLWS through the
early morning hours as winds at 1500 feet are around 45 kts.




LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.