Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 221741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Current indications are that the mid/upper level trough is exiting
the Rockies this morning as it continues to lift to the east
northeast. A shortwave within the trough was located over Colorado,
and that energy will pass over the area later this evening and
overnight. Ahead the approaching trough mid level warm advection has
begun across far eastern KS as evident from the stratocumulus deck
seen forming on IR. The NAM is the most aggressive with the
isentropic lift, which maximizes near the MO/KS state between
10-14Z. Therefore have kept sprinkles in the forecast for those
locations. Later today high temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s
across the area with the exception of a low 80s in some western
counties.

This evening the trough advances through the central plains, which
will provide the lift needed for a band of showers to progress
across eastern KS. The better frontogenesis appears to stay north of
the area, and indeed the surface reflection associated with this
system may not be that obvious. Forecast amounts are around a
quarter of an inch for most locations. Models are still indicating
weak instability despite the poor lapse rates so isolated thunder
will still be possible. Precip should arrive to north central KS
around 21Z, the Topeka area by 06Z, and be confined to far eastern
KS by 12Z. Soundings show that as the precip ends the lack of any
dry air advection with the persistent southerly flow could lead to
fog and eventually low stratus. At this point it is difficult to pin
down the extent, but have added patchy fog to the forecast across
north central KS where there is a better possibility of clouds
clearing out before 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Thursday, the upper level trough will move across eastern KS during
the morning hours. The lingering showers and perhaps an isolated
elevated thunderstorms will move east into MO during the mid and
late morning hours. The weak front that will move into central KS
will under go frontolysis as a lee trough begins to deepen across
the central high plains. Clouds will decrease across the western
counties through the morning hours and skies should become partly
cloudy into the afternoon hours across the eastern counties of the
CWA. Highs will reach the mid 70s as insolation helps to warm
temperatures through the afternoon hours.

Thursday night through Sunday Night, Summer like temperatures will
occur across the region as an upper level ridge across the western
US builds east across the central and southern plains. Highs Friday
will reach the lower to mid 80s. Highs may cool back to the upper
70s to around 80 on Saturday as weak back door cold front moves
southwest across the CWA early Saturday morning switching winds to
the northeast and east. The next H5 trough will move into the
central Rockies on Sunday. The lee surface trough across high plains
will deepen during the day Sunday and southerly winds across the CWA
will cause temperatures to warm back into the lower to mid 80s
Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday, the upper level trough across the central
Rockies will move east across the plains. A cold front will pushes
east across the CWA late Monday afternoon. The combination of
ascent ahead of the approaching H5 trough and surface convergence
ahead of the front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the CWA during the afternoon hours of Monday. These
showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday night
before ending early Tuesday morning as the H5 trough lifts
northeast towards the mid MS river valley and the cold front
pushes southeast of the CWA. Highs on Monday ahead of the front
should reach the lower to mid 70s. Highs on Tuesday will be closer
to seasonal norms, with highs in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Should have VFR conditions continue for several more hours with
increasing chance for precipitation and mainly minor limitations
as a broken fairly wide band of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms should develop around the terminals. TS should be
brief and isolated at worst so kept mention out. Went ahead with
some MVFR in the more likely times of precip, and continued south
flow should result in low cloud through much of the latter
portions of this forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65






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