Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
FXUS63 KTOP 042319
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
619 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Mostly sunny skies for the most part across the forecast area, with
some clouds and light showers in the western most counties while low
clouds have halted just to our east. Resulting temperatures have
climbed into the middle to upper 60s this afternoon.
For tonight into Monday...guidance indicates the cloud cover will
increase overnight from both the west and the east, and have kept
lows in the 40s to near 50. Temperatures aloft warm a few degrees
for Monday but amount of warming will depend on how fast the
clouds start to break up. Went just a couple of degrees warmer
.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Monday Night through Wednesday ...
By Monday night, a mid-level ridge will be stretched across the
Central and Southern Plains with a closed mid-level low spinning
over the southwestern U.S. At the surface, high pressure will
stretch from the Great Lakes region southwestward into the central
U.S., with the CWA remaining under the influence of this high
pressure into Wednesday. While this surface high pressure should
help to keep conditions dry across the area through mid week, expect
the southwesterly flow aloft to advect enough moisture into the area
to support the persistent presence of mid/high clouds. Despite these
partly sunny to partly cloudy skies, expect the
southerly/southeasterly surface winds to support continued
reinforcing shots of warm-air advection into the area, resulting in
highs temperatures warming from the mid/upper 70s on Tuesday to the
low 80s on Wednesday with overnight lows rising from the low 50s to
mid/upper 50s. Models show the closed mid-level low advancing into
New Mexico by Wednesday with the moisture axis and surface cold
front slowly advancing into western Kansas. As a result, expect
increasing cloud cover through the day on Wednesday in advance of
the frontal passage.
Wednesday Night through Sunday...
The beginning of the period starts with the first chances to see
storms this week, with chances increasing into Thursday. A
strengthening upper-level trough over northern CONUS moves east
across the area on Thursday. At the surface, the associated cold
front moves into the area Thursday afternoon bringing chances for
precipitation. Instability with this system still appears weak with
below 1000 J/kg available. With shear on the order of 25 kts could
see some scattered thunderstorms as the front moves through, exiting
the area by Friday morning. The rest of the weekend looks to be dry
as surface high pressure begins to nose its way into NE Kansas on
Friday night and Saturday behind the front. Temperatures Wednesday
night and Thursday will be the warmest of the period, before the
cold front cools things off for the end of the week and weekend.
Highs range from the upper 60s to mid 70s by this weekend with lows
cooling down near the upper 40s and low 50s.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Main feature for this TAF period is an MVFR cloud deck currently
residing just east of the forecast area. With the current speed
this deck is moving west, expect it to be over TOP/FOE by 0230Z.
These MVFR cigs should stay east of MHK, so have continued a VFR
forecast for that site. Have ceilings slightly breaking up tomorrow
afternoon at TOP/FOE at 20Z.