Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 032046
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST GENERALLY NEAR
INTERSTATE 70. MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON AT 20Z. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST WATERVAPOR LOOP DOES NOT SHOW ANY
APPROACHING WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER WEST IN
THE HIGH PLAINS A WEAK WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHILE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A LEAD WAVE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT WESTERN PLAINS
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHILE
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDERS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS KANSAS WITH MODELS
FOCUSING BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHS PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTAWA TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. HIGHS COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MODELS NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT THAT BEST QPF SHOULD BE IN EC KS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KS ON WEDNESDAY.

BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES THEN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GFS IS SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...BEING QUICKER...AND DEVELOPING A
STRONGER LOW IN SOUTHERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING
PRECIP EARLIER IN EASTERN KS. HAVE GONE WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN HOLDING OFF PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THAT DAY
DRY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP NORTHEAST KS ON SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH THIS FLOW. THUS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES PASSING
THROUGH AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RULE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE TOO
LONG LIVED, BUT DO EXPECT AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT, BUT HAVE
TRIED TO PIN DOWN THE MOST DOMINATE DIRECTION IN THE TAFS. LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME, THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOT AT SEEING SOME DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE WOULD
BE TOO LOW TO PUT ANYTHING IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...DRAKE



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