Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 181740
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1240 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion.

- Dry and cooler airmass continues to build into the area this
morning.

- Winds continue to relax into the afternoon which will help keep
fire danger in check. Expect minRH to be favorable but winds light
enough to minimize overall threats.

- Warming back up Tuesday to the 70s then 50s and 60s into next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Across the CONUS, a broad trough remains through the Great Lakes
with primary axis extending into northeast Kansas vicinity.
Subtropical flow has been shunted south further through south TX and
along the Gulf coastal region. The blocking pattern over the west
has transitioned into a much more clearly defined Rex block as the
ridge axis into Canada has built further northeast into central
Canada. Meanwhile the cutoff cold core low over the Desert Southwest
has retrograded slightly to the southwest. Cooler and drier air
continues to flow into the forecast area as the Canadian cP airmass
moves south with surface ridge building more completely through the
area and the high pressure cell sliding through later today.

As high pressure expands into the area this morning and through the
afternoon behind the exiting trough axis aloft, winds will continue
to relax and gradually back to the WSW. MinRH values fall to the low
20 percent range, but with lighter winds expect fire danger threats
to be only in the high category. Still use caution with any burns
but winds should make containing fires manageable. Highs today
should be the lowest all week with most struggling to reach into the
upper 40s after a cold morning with lows into the low 20s and some
teens over northern areas.

Into Tuesday, high pressure slides into the Lower MS Valley region
with persistent southwesterly flow into the region through the day.
Plenty of sunshine with a dry airmass still in place to bump
temperatures up to around 70 and and produce yet another pleasant
late winter and early spring day before a weak and dry modified cold
intrusion works through the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. This
will bring slightly cooler temperatures back to the area Wednesday
especially northern areas with 50s north and 60s over southern
zones. As the upper trough over the Great Lakes lifts into the
Canadian maritime region, the western blocking pattern finally
breaks down and allows for the old cutoff low over the southwest to
begin to fill and translate east phasing with the northern stream
flow by late Wednesday into Thursday. The track of this open wave
continues to be favored to the south of the region. Any
precipitation chances look minimal.

Better rain chances of 20-30 percent come into the Friday time frame
with a weak Pacific shortwave moving overhead quickly. The better
rain and storm chances hold until Saturday evening time frame as a
longwave Pacific trough digs into the Desert Southwest setting up
southwest flow aloft across the central and into the southern
Plains. Track of any low pressure system and associated fronts are
variable at this time but at 50-60 percent chance for showers and
storms appears to be reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A low-level jet
at 1200 feet above the surface will increase to 35 to 40 KTS
after 8Z TUE but surface winds should increase to 10 to 12 KTS.
Therefore, low-level wind shear will increase to 25 to 30 KTS
from 8Z TUE through 13Z TUE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Gargan


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