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000
FXUS63 KTOP 122252
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
552 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures with highs reaching the 80s and 90s this weekend,
  near record values.

- Combination of breezy winds, low relative humidity, and very
  warm temperatures will create elevated fire danger across the
  area Saturday.

- Strong system brings storms, including the chance for some
  severe storms, to the area Monday afternoon/evening into
  Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

This afternoon and surface ridge was over eastern Kansas with
southerly return flow across western and central Kansas on the west
side of the surface ridge. Northwesterly flow aloft continues across
eastern Kansas with a ridge building over the Rockies. A mid level
trough was moving into southern California at 19Z.

South to southwesterly winds increase on Saturday into the 15 to 25
mph range with gusts of 25 to 35 mph by the afternoon hours.
Forecast soundings show mixing through 850 mb where temperatures at
that level of 20 degrees Celsius are expected. This will yield highs
in the mid to upper 80s across the area. In addition afternoon
relative humidity will drop into the 20 to 30 percent range with
elevated fore danger, especially across north central Kansas. A weak
wave/perturbation moves eastward through the day and soundings show
an increase in mid level moisture with dry air below 600 mb or an
inverted "V" sounding. probability of any precipitation reaching the
ground looks to be less than 15% and have included some sprinkles.
Some localized wind gusts will also be possible from late afternoon
until sunset.

Temperatures will be a little warmer on Sunday with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Winds will be lighter as a surface trough
moves across the CWA limiting any additional fire weather concerns.
On Monday, A mid level trough will move across the Rockies with
increasing moisture flux into the southern and central Plains from
the Gulf. The system has slowed down some from earlier runs and
moves out across the central Plains Monday night, then moves off to
the east by Tuesday evening. Best chances for any severe storms look
to be late Monday into early Tuesday. Conditions will be favorable
for severe storms across the area with bountiful moisture, shear
and instability forecast.

The next system moves through Wednesday into Thursday bringing
another chance for showers and storms to the area along with cooler
air for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR TAFs will continue through the period at all sites with the
main aviation hazard being winds later in the period. Overnight
tonight, winds will remain light, shifting towards the south.
There might be a brief period of marginal LLWS that develops
around sunrise Saturday, but forecast soundings keep wind shifts
fairly unidirectional. By mid Saturday morning, gusty
south/southwest winds will become present, gusting to around
30-35 mph at times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

South to southwest winds increase on Saturday with sustained winds
of 15-25mph and gusts of 25-35mph. As temperatures warm into the
80s, relative humidity will fall to 20-30 percent, lowest in north
central and parts of northeast Kansas. Fire partners indicate that
even with green-up well underway, the abnormally warm temperatures
on Saturday along with recent dry conditions will work to dry out
fuels and could lead to more erratic fire behavior. There is also
concern that any fires today could reignite on Saturday given the
wind and RH forecast. This all leads to elevated fire concerns
Saturday afternoon.

Sunday, slightly warmer temperatures and lower relative humidity, 20
to 25 percent across much of the area, but winds will be much
lighter, generally less than 10 mph. A change in wind direction
occurs as a weak surface front moves through with morning winds from
the west and southwest becoming north-northeast through the day and
easterly by late afternoon Sunday. Light winds should limit fire
weather concerns overall.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

            Record High Temps           Forecast High Temps

April 13    95 in Topeka (2006)         88 in Topeka
89 in Concordia (1936)      88 in Concordia

April 14    92 in Topeka (2006)         89 in Topeka
            90 in Concordia (2002)      89 in Concordia

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Griesemer
FIRE WEATHER...53
CLIMATE...53