Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 272128
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Most of the forecast area enjoying the sunshine this afternoon as
upper system is making its way eastward.  Cool advection is holding
highs in the 20s to low 30s generally, with northwest winds coming
off the snowpack to the north and west of our area.

For tonight, with clear skies and a light wind, have lows on the
lower side of guidance with teens for the area, with lower values in
low spots.  May see some patchy fog in valleys but not confident
enough to add to forecast as incoming air mass is quite dry.  Skies
should remain mostly clear for Sunday, with highs rising to upper
30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Clouds will increase Sunday night into Monday ahead of a weak shortwave
that along with 800-600mb frontogenesis will lead to light snow
across Nebraska into parts of Kansas. The strongest and most
organized forcing appears to remain north or west of the area so
do not expect widespread accumulating snow in the county warning
area however would expect scattered areas of light snow later
Monday into Monday night as the Arctic cold front surges through
the area. Expect some lingering flurries into Tuesday as the
Arctic airmass continues to build into the region.

Thereafter look for dry and seasonably cold weather for mid week
before the next storm system potentially arrives toward the end
of next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF cut that system off across AZ
Weds-Thu. The ECMWF remains further south and a bit slower than
the GFS with this system Fri into Sat. There`s enough uncertainty
to keep the general snow or rain wording in the forecast but this
is something to watch over the next several days. It would appear
that another Arctic airmass will spill into the region later next
weekend so January will be off to a cold start.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period, just a few MVFR clouds
in the process of dissipating. Winds slowly decrease and become light
southwesterly to south by the end of the TAF cycle.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...67





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