Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
FXUS63 KTOP 211128

National Weather Service Topeka KS
628 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Today and Tonight, an upper trough was located across the Mid MS
river valley early this morning and will move east, off the mid
Atlantic coast late Tonight. An upper level ridge across the
southwestern US will slowly drift east into the southern high plains
by late Tonight. Eastern KS will remain under northwesterly flow
aloft Today and Tonight. The surface ridge of high pressure centered
across eastern KS early this morning will move east into the mid and
lower MS river valley Today. As the surface ridge axis shifts east
into MO, surface winds will become southerly through the morning
hours and increase to 10 to 20 MPH across north central KS through
the afternoon hours. After a cool start this morning with
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, highs Today will reach the
lower to mid 60s with some upper 60 degree highs across the
southwest counties. Overnight lows will only drop into the lower to
mid 40s Tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Mild temperatures will be seen Saturday with northwest flow aloft
and surface high pressure southeast of the area.  Continued
southerly flow through the night will keep low temperatures near 50
early Sunday morning.  A weak surface front moves through the area
Sunday afternoon causing a change in wind direction, but no real
sensible weather.  The next chance for precipitation arrives Tuesday
afternoon associated with a passing shortwave, with the best chances
for storms seen Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The ECMWF
continues to keep the bulk of deep moisture north of the area, while
the GFS is a bit more robust with precipitation over northeast
Kansas. Either way, with up to 1000 J/kg of CAPE available Tuesday
night, thunderstorms will be possible.  This wave moves through
quickly and dry conditions are once again forecast from Wednesday
afternoon through the end of the period.  As for temperatures, highs
will stay in the 70s with lows in the 50s or upper 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Patchy fog will dissipate by 15Z at KTOP. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected for the terminals throughout the period.
Southerly winds will remain near 10 knots for the duration of the
TAF period.




LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Baerg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.