Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 211132
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
532 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Early this morning water vapor imagery showed cloud cover lingering
across far eastern Kansas, which is associated with the closed mid-
level low situated over the Oklahoma/Arkansas border. These high
clouds kept temperatures warmer over eastern Kansas with readings in
the 40s. However, drier air and clear skies just to the west
resulted in temperatures dropping into the 30s.  With relatively
light winds in place and with some residual moisture present, some
areas of very patchy fog were developing across portions of north
central and east central KS. Locations in east central/southeast KS
will have the better chance for some patchy fog through sunrise, but
could also see this patchy fog develop in low-lying areas.

The weak mid-level ridge will move over the region today with an
inverted surface trough bisecting the CWA from southwest to
northeast by mid-day. Models show dry conditions on the back-side of
this inverted surface trough, with dewpoints in the low 30s.  These
dry conditions will result in heightened fire weather concerns for
portions of north central KS.  However, due to models trending
lighter with the wind speeds, the Fire Weather Watch has been
cancelled for today.  See the Fire Weather section below for further
details.  Models show the inverted surface trough tracking eastward
over the eastern half of the CWA this afternoon. Short-range models
are all showing cooler surface temperatures beneath this trough
across eastern KS.  As a result, have decreased high temperatures
across far northeast and east central KS by a few degrees with highs
in the low 70s.  However, it is worth noting that several short-
range models suggest that high temperatures may not even reach into
the 70s for some of these eastern locations, so these temperature
trends will need to be closely monitored today.  Models have
continued to trend warm on the back-side of this trough across
central KS with near-record high temperatures in the mid 70s.

Models show increasing high clouds overnight into Wednesday morning
as a surface trough moves into western KS. These high clouds should
help to provide some insolation to keep low temperatures in the
low/mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Wednesday will be another warm day across the area with near or
record high temperatures in part of the forecast area. Nearly zonal
flow aloft initially will transition to a southwesterly flow by 00Z
Thursday. Thermal axis will extend northeast across the forecast
area with mixing down from near 800 mb in the early afternoon. A
cool front will approach north central Kansas by evening as it moves
south across Nebraska and cyclogenesis occurs in the Lee of the
Rockies. Forecast models continue to bring an upper level trough
out of the Rockies and through the Plains Thursday into Friday.
There is still some spread in solutions with the track and speed
of the surface low from southwest Kansas into northeast Kansas
with the NAM the faster of the solutions and the CMC the slowest.
Isentropic lift Wednesday night into Thursday morning will bring a
chance for elevated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder to
east central Kansas. Later on Thursday and Thursday night the
dynamic forcing will increase as the upper trough moves out into
the Plains. The track of the surface low will be critical to the
placement of the colder air across far northern Kansas and any
change over to snow. Currently the colder air will remain to the
north of the forecast area so Thursday night is looking to be all
rain at this point. Colder air moves in by Friday morning allowing
for a mix of rain and snow in north central and far northeast
Kansas. Light snow is expected Friday evening across northeast
Kansas near the Nebraska and Missouri borders. Any amounts look
light at this time. Temperatures Thursday will be warm in the warm
sector with much of the area warming into the 60s to lower 70s.
However by Friday highs will be colder with highs in the upper 30s
to upper 40s. Saturday and Sunday will be dry with highs in the
40s warming back into the 40s and 50s for Sunday. Isentropic lift
and warm advection sunday night and Monday morning will bring a
small chance of light snow and light rain to east central Kansas.
An active weather pattern will continue next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

For the 12z TAFs, patchy fog near KMHK will result in periods of
reduced visibilities this morning before clearing out. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected through the period with winds shifting
from northwest to south/southwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Models show dry conditions present west of the inverted surface
trough today, resulting in dewpoint temperatures in the low 30s
across north central KS.  These dry conditions will coincide with
near-record high temperatures in the mid 70s this afternoon,
resulting in RH values plunging into the upper teens to low 20s
percent range.  Despite these dry conditions, models have been
trending a bit weaker with the surface winds with afternoon wind
gusts of 15-20mph limited to across north central KS. SPC has
highlighted north central KS in an area of elevated fire danger for
today as a result of the expected dry conditions.  Due to the
marginal winds though, we (in coordination with neighboring NWS
offices) decided to not upgrade the Fire Weather Watch, and have
instead decided to cancel the Watch. However, Very High Fire Danger
is expected across north central KS this afternoon.

Elevated fire danger will be possible again on Wednesday
as temperatures warm again into the mid and upper 70s across
northeast and east central Kansas. Dry air will mix down during the
afternoon hours yielding minimum relative humidities from the high
teens in north central Kansas to the upper 20s percent southeast of
I-35. The limiting factor for any fire headlines will be the
winds Wednesday afternoon as they decrease with the approach of
the surface front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 327 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Record Highest Maximum Temperatures:

...for February 21...

Topeka......76, set in 1977
Concordia...75, set in 1977

...for February 22...

Topeka......74, set in 1995
Concordia...76, set in 1982

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke
FIRE WEATHER...Hennecke/53
CLIMATE...Hennecke/53



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