Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 242134
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

System is kicking out of area with surface ridge axis moving
eastward across western portion of forecast area at mid-afternoon.
Back edge of stratus appears to be correlated with the surface ridge
axis and should be moving through Manhattan by 5 PM and through
Topeka by about 8 PM.  Temperatures may fall quickly this evening
and then slowly warm as pressure gradient and associated winds
increase overnight, resulting in considerable mixing.  Lows tonight
somewhat tricky as a result, but have gone mostly mid to upper 20s
over the area.

On Christmas day, the pressure gradient between lee low and
departing high is strong enough that southerly winds are expected to
be in the 20 to 30 mph range with higher gusts from late morning
through mid to late afternoon.  Extensive cirrus shield ahead of
next upper trough will bring increasing high-level cloudiness on
Thursday.  Max temps are expected to be in the mid to upper 40s
along the Nebraska border to the lower 50s along and south of I70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

Thursday night the upper longwave trough moves into the southwest
US, while a lead shortwave ejects into the plains passing north of
the area. This will push a cold front into the area during the day
Friday. There is fairly good agreement among the models with the
temperatures through the course of the day. How that energy lifts
out of the southwest is the main concern with this period. Another
shortwave looks to pass north of the area Friday afternoon and
evening bringing a round of light snow to north central KS. Behind
the front and further southeast low level moisture and isentropic
lift may cause light rain and or drizzle for mainly areas along and
east of the turnpike Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be well
above freezing during this time frame. The large scale lift
continues to increase into the overnight hours allowing more of a
rain or snow mix as the pattern progresses. The change over to snow
will depend on how fast the cold air can move southward. By midnight
Saturday the freezing line appears to reach the turnpike, with
locations starting to clear out in north central KS. A rain snow mix
will continue to be possible through Saturday evening in southeast
portions of the forecast area as the positively tilted trough
progresses eastward through the central US. Lift is not
particularly strong with this system, which means light precip
amounts expected at this time with generally less than one inch of
snowfall for most areas.

For the extended the west coast ridge becomes amplified allowing a
better connection to the cold air. As shortwaves dig into the long
wave trough over the southwest US the models begin to disagree on
cutting that energy off or bringing out a much stronger system. As
for now a lead shortwave looks to eject out of the central Rockies
bringing a chance for light snow mid week. Rather or not that is a
quick hit or something more significant is in question. Temperatures
will be below normal next week with highs in the 20s and 10s and
lows in the single digits.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

Previous forecast on track. Back edge of stratus just west of a
CNK to SLN line and slowly eroding east. Expect a very gradual
lifting of stratus this afternoon, but still within MVFR
category. MHK should break out in the 21-23Z time frame while
expect TOP and FOE break out between 00 and 03Z. After that, VFR
expected with winds switching to west and then south at less than
10 kts overnight. Pressure gradient strengthening later tonight
and southerly winds of 12 to 20 kts should be in store for
Christmas morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...GDP





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