Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 180536
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1136 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Departing upper shortwave trough over the region has skirted towards
the Great Lakes region while an expansive upper low rotates
northeast towards the central plains by Wednesday evening. Drier air
associated with the sfc ridge is slowly eroding the stratus deck
over east central Kansas, likely to stall near the Kansas and
Missouri border just before sunset. This should lead to another
evening for fog to develop across eastern portions of the area
Wednesday, especially in the low lying areas. Do not have high
enough confidence for dense fog, but will need to monitor the far
eastern areas of the CWA where the HRRR and RAP models are hinting
the possibility for visibilities being around a quarter of a mile or
less.

No other hazards for the short term forecast as the upper low edges
closer, sfc trough builds over Colorado, shifting winds to the
southwest through the afternoon. High clouds increase on Wednesday
while highs are generally in the 40s to lower 50s. The dry air in
place across the region confines the precipitation to the southern
plains for the time being.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Another mid/upper level low pressure will lift out over the plains
on Thursday. On Thursday night the lift and moisture will increase
in the lower levels, but moisture will be lacking in the mid levels.
This means a good chance for drizzle across the entire area into
Friday. On Friday a separate shortwave trough from over the west
coast will phase and take over the initial wave. Therefore chances
for rain will increase mainly north of I-70 Friday and afternoon and
overnight. This system will be quickly followed by yet another and
even stronger deepening mid level low pressure that tracks over the
southern plains this weekend. This will bring a chance for
precipitation for the weekend. Although the models disagree on the
exact track of the mid/upper level low pressure. This will play a
role in where the precipitation will fall. I have already noticed
the track has trended south. The other main theme for this forecast
is that temperatures will be above normal with highs in the 40s and
50s, while lows stay in the 40s and 30s at least until next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Patchy fog will develop at or near the terminals through 10Z as
skies remain clear and winds will be calm. An area of high clouds
will move north across the terminals after 10Z, which should
decrease the patchy dense fog development. KTOP and KMHK should
see the lowest visibilities with less than 1 mile at KMHK and
down to 1/4-1/2 mile at times at KTOP. After 14Z, expect VFR
conditions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan



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