Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 220502

1202 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

Very dry atmosphere will remain in place across the county warning
area through tonight and Monday. As north winds quickly diminish
by sunset and skies remain clear...temperatures should fall off
into the 50s later this evening. With the center of the high
settling into the cwa overnight...temps will cool into the upper
40s for overnight lows.

As the high pressure center shifts off to the east...winds will veer
to the southeast by midday across the area and continue through the
afternoon. Despite the sunshine...the cool start and more limited
mixing through the day will limit highs in the middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

Monday Night through Tuesday the upper trough will begin to move out
of the Rockies and into the Northern and Central Plains. Models
develop showers and thunderstorms across the Western High Plains
during the evening hours then spread eastward into central and north
central Kansas during the overnight hours into Tuesday. Models are
in agreement with the upper trough to stall over the Central Plains
Wednesday night and Thursday then begin to retrograde back to the
west as an upper trough moves across the eastern Pacific and into
the western states with ridging in the central U.S.. Moisture and
instability looks most favorable across western and central Kansas
for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Shear and lapse rates are
weak with moderate CAPE, especially in north central Kansas.
Will maintain low end precipitation chances from Tuesday night
through early Thursday. With a ridge over the Plains Thursday night
through the weekend have maintained a dry forecast through Sunday.
Temperatures will be near seasonal values through much of the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR conditions should dominate the TAF period. The lone exception
will be at TOP where chances are good for shallow fog on runways
with vis in the IFR range. This should focus between 11Z-13Z.




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