Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 220908
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
208 AM MST Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warmer area-wide through Saturday. A storm
system will then move across the area Sunday through Tuesday of next
week, resulting in much cooler temperatures, strong gusty winds and
a chance of valley rain and mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft will continue across the area
into Saturday as the ridge axis transitions from nearly overhead
today into the southern plains on Saturday. High temperatures will
be 3-6 degrees above normal through Saturday. High level cirrus
clouds will move into the southeast Arizona later this morning and
afternoon and will be thick at times helping keep low temperatures
tonight elevated above climo values.

A storm system will become centered off the central Oregon coast by
late today and then move southeast across California and the western
Great Basin Saturday and Saturday night, before entering western
Arizona late Sunday. Breezy southwest winds are expected across
southeast Arizona on Saturday in advance of this system. While wind
speeds and RH values exceed critical fire weather thresholds, fire
danger levels remain in the low to moderate categories due to above
normal precipitation over the last couple of months, and therefore,
no Fire Weather Watches and/or Red Flag Warnings will be issued.
Winds speeds Saturday will remain below wind advisory levels.
However, wind advisory level windiness is possible on Sunday,
especially to the east of Tucson. Blowing dust will also be a
concern Saturday and Sunday.

The first impulse will bring a chance of valley rain and mountain
snow Saturday night through midday Sunday before shifting east into
the New Mexico. Light precipitation amounts are expected with this
wave, generally less than one-tenth of an inch in the valleys and up
to one-quarter of an inch in the mountains. The main precipitation
event will be Sunday night into Monday as a stronger disturbance
rounds the base of the trough across Arizona. High temperatures will
plummet on Sunday by 15-20 degrees, with highs only in the mid 50s
to mid 60s in the valleys. Similar temperatures are expected Monday.
Storm total rainfall in the valleys will generally be between one-
tenth and one-third of an inch (locally up to one-half inch) and one-
half to one inch in the mountains. Snow levels will lower to 5000-
5500 feet by Sunday morning and remain at that level through the
event. Snowfall totals in the Sky Islands and White Mountains will
be 4-10 inches, with a few local amounts of up to a foot on the
mountain tops.

Lingering precipitation chances continue on Tuesday, mainly to the
northeast and east of Tucson, as the system begins to shift east of
the region. High temperature warm up a couple of degrees (versus
Sunday and Monday), but will still be nearly 10 degrees below
normal. Readings then warm to near normal the latter half of next
week, along with a return to dry conditions.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 23/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL, becoming SCT-BKN aft 22/18Z and then
persisting thru the end of the valid period. SFC wind less than 10
kts thru the period, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the
afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other
times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected across southeast Arizona
through Saturday. High temperatures will be 3-6 degrees above normal
today and Saturday, lowering to 15-20 degrees below normal Sunday
and Monday, before warming back to near normal the latter half of
next week. Minimum RHs will be in the 8-15 percent range in the
valleys today and Saturday. A storm system will move into the region
late Saturday night through early next week, resulting in strong and
gusty winds, much cooler temperatures, precipitation chances and
higher relative humidity values. 20-foot winds will be below 15 mph
and diurnal in nature today. On Saturday 20-foot winds will be
southwest at 20-25 mph and gusts to around 35 mph, with strong and
gusty winds expected again on Sunday especially to the east of
Tucson. While min RH values on Saturday will be at or below critical
thresholds, fire danger levels are currently in the low to moderate
category, so no Fire Weather Watches and/or Red Flag Warnings are
anticipated at this time. Min RH values will then increase to well
above critical thresholds on Sunday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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