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000
FXUS65 KTWC 170836
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
136 AM MST Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring dry conditions and a strong
warming trend into next week. A weak passing weather system will
bring breezy conditions on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong ridge near the west coast will edge in from
the west, even as another system digs into northern tier states.
We`ll lose much of the ridge geometry as this happens, but a
strong net gain in heights and thicknesses will support
temperatures 5 to 8 degrees above average by Thursday.

A typical transition season dry pattern, with the storm track
well north of us and modest southern tier systems that pause the
warming trend and bring some afternoon breeziness like Friday.

A ridge will attempt to build in from the west again early next
week, with temperatures climbing several degrees for Sunday or
Monday. Ensembles are suggesting negative height anomalies across
the area the second half of next week. Watch for the eastern
Pacific to get a little busier with a potential split under the
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/12Z.
SKC. Typical diurnal wind trends generally less than 10 kts,
westerly in the afternoon and variable other times. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry with a strong warming trend across SE AZ into
next week. Minimum relative humidity values generally below 15%
in valleys, dropping to single digits at times. Typical diurnal
wind trends most of the week, with a breezy Friday afternoon as a
weak dry weather system pushes across.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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