Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 250146
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
946 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front stalls over the Carolinas Sunday into Monday. High
pressure builds into the area through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Mid evening MSAS shows the cold front has slowed to a crawl
with not much movement from its position across southern VA
during the past few hours. Meanwhile, s/w energy moving across
eastern NC continue to produce shwrs/tstrms across NERN NC with
the heaviest along and near the Albemarle sound.

Latest high res data keeps wdsprd pcpn going along the counties
that border the Albemarle sound for anthr few hours with pcpn
tapering off to sct shwrs after midnight as the cold front
slowly sags south. Thus, adjusted the grids here a bit. Also
increased pops a bit ivof Albemarle sound with lclly hvy
rainfall near EDE on to the NE. Otw, fair to pt cldy cldy and a
bit cooler than last night as drier air filters in from the NW
behind the front. Lows mid 60s NW to mid 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Front will become stalled along the NC coast on Sunday.
Meanwhile, a broad upper trough aloft will build across the
eastern CONUS for much of the first half of next week. This will
bring a dry and markedly more comfortable stretch of days for
Sunday through Tuesday, with cooler and drier days and cool,
comfortable nights. Highs Sunday in the the m-u80s (l80s
beaches) Clear to mostly clear sky and comfortable Sun night
with lows in the u50s NW to m-u60s SE.

Upper Trough will drop across the Great Lakes on Monday, with
the lead shortwave dropping across the Ohio Valley Sunday night
into Monday. This feature will push the secondary cold front
toward the local area from early Monday...dropping across the
area Monday afternoon and night. Will result in conditions
becoming partly cloudy. An isolated shower or two is possible
with the frontal passage along the coast. However, given dry
antecedent airmass, expecting little more than some increasing
clouds and will keep pops in silent range for now. Highs in the
low to mid 80s (u70s at the beaches).

Even cooler behind the secondary front. After a cool, pleasant
night Monday night with lows in the 50s to mid 60s, look for
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday. A second, stronger
vort lobe will drop across the area in NW flow aloft on Tuesday.
Despite dry airmass, this feature could prove strong enough to
squeeze out a shower or thunderstorm. Kept pop in slight chance
range for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The secondary cold front crosses the area Mon night. Isolated SHRAs
possible near the coast (esp on the eastern shore)...otherwise
the fropa should be dry due to a lack of significant moisture.
Cooler temps then for Tue with highs only in the mid/upr 70s
most areas. Sfc high pres builds directly over the area Tue
night/Wed behind a mid- level trough pushing offshore. Dry again
for Thu as the high slides offshore allowing for S/SW to
develop across the Mid Atlc and temps to max out in the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Slow moving cold front across the southern portions of the CWA.
Showers and thunderstorms across NC are moving ENE affecting
portions of southern Virgina. Some light rain could affect PHF
and ORF through late this evening and showers and thunderstorms
could affect ECG through the overnight. The front will have
difficulty pushing south due to a weak upper pattern and
precipitation could linger over portions of NE NC through the
night. Generally VFR conditions expected for the TAF sites but
some tempo MVFR ceilings possible for ECG with precipitation.

OUTLOOK...VFR conditions on Sunday except the chance of showers
or isolated thunderstorms for ECG. Mostly VFR through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to SCA headlines this morning. Gusty SW winds 15-25kt
w/ gusts to 30kt will continue thru mid/late morning before
diminishing to 10-15 kt this afternoon. Seas 3-4ft currently will
build to 4-5 ft south/5-6 ft north around daybreak, then gradually
subside back below 5 ft by late morning south and later this
afternoon north. An extended period of benign marine conditions is
then expected from tonight through the middle of next week. Winds
become N/NW around 10 kt behind a cold front tonight/Sunday morning,
then variable less than 10 kt later Sunday into Monday. Waves 1-2 ft
over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JDM



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