Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290551
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF SHOWERS PERSISTING
OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING...REMAINING GENERALLY
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. OTHERWISE...EARLIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON GOES WV
PROGGED TO DROP OVER ERN VA TONIGHT IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT. A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO
CENTRAL VA AS RAP DEPICTS AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OVER THAT REGION. SKY AVERAGES PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY INLAND
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NE COUNTIES. LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW
90S...WITH LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NIGHT W/ LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
THRU MIDDAY FRI...THEN FOCUS CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
FRIDAY AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND EWD FM THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN TSTMS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG). HOWEVER...THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING ARND THE UPR RIDGE TO
KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95).
OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS
TO CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS (IFR). A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH
INTO AND ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO
S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE
A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE
BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...LKB/TMG


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