Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED SE OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN
END ACROSS NE NC...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC.
CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THIS AREA BY AFTN WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE ALL DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY NE/ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTN WHEN GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND...
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT SKIRTS BY THE NC OUTER BANKS SATURDAY AND THEN OUT
TO SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...
OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S (NEAR 70 AT
THE BEACHES). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND/
LOW-MID 80S AT THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS
PREVIOUS DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SET UP
WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SW WINDS AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S-SW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN
RAINFALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
90 DEGREES INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...
ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC
AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THIS MORNING OVER
INTERIOR VA/MD BUT WILL GENLY NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...
BKN/OVC CIGS 5-10 K FT OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT N/NE WINDS...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE E/NE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT AT KORF/KECG WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL
STILL TEND TO SEE AN INCREASE OF A FEW KT AROUND DAYBREAK THAT THE
N/NE FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
(PROBABLY A TAD HIGHER ACRS THE SOUTH). EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE E/NE AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVG AROUND
3-4 FT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/2-3 FT NORTH...WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AROUND 2 FT...AND CLOSER TO 1 FT IN THE RIVERS.

ON SAT...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST PROGGED TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH (ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL OFFSHORE) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE
E/SE SAT NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN
THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 2-3 FT
ELSEWHERE WITH BAY WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (2 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY). THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND MORE TO THE S/SE SUN AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/JDM
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/WRS
MARINE...LKB


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