Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221659
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1159 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL ALLOW REMAINING COUNTIES IN THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AT NOON...SOME PATCHY AREAS OF 32 F STILL POSSIBLE IN FAR
WRN PORTIONS OF LOUISA/FLUVANNA (IN LOW LYING AREAS). EVEN KCHO
IS 33 F NOW SO SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND WILL JUST MENTION IN HWO.

CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1031 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE...RIDGING SW INTO THE NRN MID ATLC REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. BEST LIFT AND OMEGA NOW SHIFTING TO THE NE
SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VA AFTER 18-19Z (ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN 20-50% POPS). HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S NW TO AROUND 50 F COASTAL NE NC. QPF TOTALS
AVG ONLY 0.10 TO 0.20" NW TO 0.50" TO 0.75" NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING...SFC LOW PRS PROGGED TO TRACK NNE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA TONIGHT REACHING THE SRN NJ COAST BY 12Z TUE. BEST SPRT FOR
WDSPRD PCPN SHIFTS TOWARD THE DELMARVA. SO RAIN CHCS CONT THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S.

OVERNIGHT...WDPSRD LL MSTR SEEN IN TSCTNS AFTR MIDNIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH
THE STDY AND HVNST RAINS SHUD END AS THE PUSH NE...XPCT AREAS OF LGT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THRU THE NIGHT. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S. TOTAL QPF
NEXT 24 HRS RANGE BTWN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...UP TO THREE
QUARTERS INCH ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC.

TUESDAY...THE UNSETTLED PTRN CONTINUES AS LOW PRS IS SLOW TO PULL NE
DUE TO A STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON NIGHT...THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED SO
MAINTAINED A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TUE. GIVEN
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE...WENT
WITH THE COOLER GUID NMBRS. HIGHS TUE RANGE FROM THE M-U40S ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95 TO THE M-U50S IN SERN VA/NE NC.

TUE NIGHT / WEDNESDAY...SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE FROM
THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL CAPE) ON
WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. HIGHS WED INTO THE M-U60S TO AROUND 70 F
(CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS WED...SHIFTING
OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER- RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N LATER
THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. SOME
IP/FZRA POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/
BETWEEN 12-16Z. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST
TODAY...THEN WEAKENS TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE DELMARVA. E-NE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY AVG 10-15 KT TODAY ON THE MIDDLE BAY AND THE
RIVERS...AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS/LOWER BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND. MIGHT EVEN GET SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE LOWER BAY TODAY...WITH SEAS 3-4
FT ON THE OCEAN...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT SOUTH. DID GO AHEAD AND ADD THE
COASTAL ZONE SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES TO THE SCA AS SEAS LOOK TO REACH
5 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
LIFTING NORTH...REMAINING FROM AN E-NE DIRECTION NORTH AND TURNING
OFFSHORE SOUTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT OUT
AROUND 20 NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE AN SCA ATTM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SE WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE
THE RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN BY LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM





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