Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 181919
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
319 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic Region through
the weekend with temperatures gradually warming. Next cold front
expected to impact the region early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc high pressure remains over/near the area through Fri night.
Main changes in the short term periods will be in the mid-upper
levels. An upper trough crosses the Midwest/Ohio Valley through
tonight and then passes through the region Thu/Thu night...while
mid level ridging flattens into W-NW flow during this timeframe.
The end result will be scattered cirrus streaming overhead late
tonight into Thu with the passing through. Mid-upper level
ridging re- establishes itself and amplifies over the eastern
half of the U.S. Fri/Fri night. Otherwise, weather remains dry
with a very slow warming trend despite temps being near normal.
Highs Thu generally 70-75F and Fri in the low-mid 70s. Lows
tonight in the lower 40s inland/mid 40s to lower 50s near the
coast. Lows Thu/Fri nights generally 45-49F NW to 55-59F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sfc high pressure slides off the New England Coast Sat and
continues to push ewd into early next week. Ridge axis
associated with this feature will remain over the local area
through most of Sun before moving offshore. Meanwhile, mid-upper
level ridge axis remains centered along the East Coast from the
Mid Atlantic to the Southeast through at least Sun before
shifting ewd/offshore. A deep upper level trough spans the
length of the Mississippi River from the Upper Midwest to the
Gulf Coast states Sun... becoming separated from its parent low
(near wrn Hudson Bay in Canada) by Sun night. Sfc cold front
linking the separated upper lows to cross the Midwest Sun/Sun
night, Ohio Valley Mon/Mon night, and eventually cross the Mid
Atlantic Region Tue/Tue night. Overall forecast is dry until Mon
into Tue night with lingering showers possible Wed.
Thunderstorms may also be possible Mon aftn based on current
arrival of precip, however this could change if the upper trough
digs deeper and delays onset of precip into Mon night.
Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal Sat-Mon
night. Expect highs in the 70s. Lows will warm from the
lower 50s most areas Sat night (mid- upper 50s beaches) to the
lower 60s by Mon night. Highs closer to normal (69-75F) on Tue
with widespread rain present. A much colder Canadian airmass
moves into the area behind the cold front beginning Tue night.
Decent cold air advection paired with a tight pressure gradient
will likely allow dewpoints to plummet while temperatures are
slower to fall/respond. Lows Tue night in the upper 40s to
lower 50s inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast. Highs
Wed around 5-10 degrees below normal with readings in the
lower 60s inland and in the mid 60s far SE VA/coastal NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains over/near the area through Fri
night. An upper trough crosses the Midwest/Ohio Valley through
tonight and then passes through the region Thu/Thu night...while
mid level ridging flattens into W-NW flow during this timeframe.
The end result will be SCT cirrus streaming overhead late
tonight into Thu with the passing through, and additional SCT
altocumulus or altostratus developing near far SE VA/NE NC
coastal areas where ENE winds persist on Thu. Stacked high
pressure holds strong Fri into the weekend. Dry weather and VFR
conditions will prevail the rest of today through Sun night.
Next weather system expected to impact the region Mon/Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
A large area of high pressure remains centered over the Mid
Atlantic states this afternoon. The axis of the ridge stretches
Farmville to just south of Wallops Island. South of this line
seeing generally ne flow and north of the line the flow is more
swly. But in all cases the winds are generally light, less than
10 kt. With the lighter winds, the seas are also generally a
foot or less on the bay and 2-3 ft on the ocean.

This strong high pressure system will remain entrenched across
the region on Thursday with light winds and the benign seas. A
cold front will slide across the region on Friday morning with a
wind switch to the nw and increase in speed to 10-15 kt with
seas also increasing to 1-2 FT on the by and 2-4 Ft on the ocean
waters. However the bump up in winds will be temporary as the
strong surface high reestablishes its control over the region
for Saturday and Sunday with a return to benign conditions over
the area waters.

The next chance for significant weather over the waters does not
come until early next week as a strong cold front slowly moves
across the region late Monday into Tuesday. Expect an increase
in sly winds ahead of the front and strong nwly winds behind the
front.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KAKQ radar will be down through Wednesday, October 18th for
radome repairs.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...ESS
EQUIPMENT...AKQ



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