Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260621
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
121 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THANKSGIVING DAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO FEATURE A MOIST FRONTAL
BAND IN PLACE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF COAST, ASCENDING THE SE
COAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. ALOFT, A STRONG TROUGH IS DIGGING
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY...WITH A 160KT JET DOWNSTREAM EXTENDING
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA. STRONG LIFT IN THE
RRQ OF THE JET IS IN VICINITY OF THE MOIST FRONTAL BAND...WHICH
IS TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM THE GULF...NE ACROSS
N FL...AND OVER THE GULF STREAM. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1011MB LOW
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NE ALONG THE COAST.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC NOW SHOWING BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS
STREAMING NORTH ALONG A LINE FROM TLH TO CLT TO RDU THIS
EVENING, WITH SOME LGT RAIN/DZ PERSISTING ALONG THE FAR SE CORNER
OF THE LOCAL AREA INVOF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AKQ CWA OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AKQ CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BECOMES
FURTHER ORGANIZED AND BEGINS TO TRACK NE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY PERSISTENT/STRENGTHENING
BAND OF MID-LEVEL (700MB) FRONTOGENESIS WHICH WILL ALSO SLOWLY
LIFTS N INTO WED MORNING. RUC/HRRR STILL DEPICTING ~1008MB SFC
LOW REACHING NEAR CAPE HATTERAS BY 12Z WED, AND SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY THAT TIME. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THERMAL PROFILE THAT EASILY SUPPORT RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN
FACT, WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED MINIMA UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT
PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN STABLE/RISE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE FAR SE. FARTHER INLAND, STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE WED MORNING
AS MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP AND FORCING REMAINS STRONG. WHILE CAA
REMAINS RATHER WEAK...DYNAMICAL COOLING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES THROUGH
WED MORNING...WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE/850MB LOW AND CLIMO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO
RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SN WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NW PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME, SN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE AROUND OR LESS
THAN ONE INCH OVER LOUISA/FLUVANNA...WITH THE BORDERING COUNTIES
EXPERIENCING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE GRASS AND OTHER NON-PAVED SURFACES, SO NO ADVISORY
IS NECESSARY. MOISTURE SHALLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO PCPN
SHOULD STEADILY LESSEN IN INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING LATE WED
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT CHANGE TO SN COULD
ACTUALLY SWITCH BACK OVER TO -RA AS THE INTENSITY WANES. TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 2.0-2.5IN OVER SE VA/NE NC...TO
1.0-1.5IN ELSEWHERE.

A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT...BEFORE A SECONDARY CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THANKSGIVING
DAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHC OF -SHRA OR -SHSN (OR A MIX THEREOF) TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA. LOCALIZED LIGHT SN ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE ON THE GRASS AND OTHER NON-PAVED
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FROM W-E. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 NW...TO THE MID 30S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FCST FOR THE REGION WITH MILDER
TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN AND MON. HI PRES WILL SETTLE OFF THE MID
ATLC AND SE CST FOR SAT INTO MON. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP ACRS
THE AREA MON AFTN/NGT WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE ISLTD PCPN.
THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS NEW ENGLAND ON TUE. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SAT...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S
SUN AND MON...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO UPR 50S TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SAT MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S
SUN MORNG...IN THE 40S MON MORNG...AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING A DECENT SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AT ALL
TAF SITES. COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RASN WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING NW OF KRIC.
GUSTY N-NW WINDS DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND AVERAGE
10-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-35KT LIKELY AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN ADVERSE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED LATE
WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST
AND DISSIPATING. COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR -SN OR -RASN ALONG AND NW OF A GENERAL LINE FROM KSBY-
KRIC-KFVX. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE MUCH FASTER THAN CIGS...WHICH
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE/LIFT/BREAK-UP BY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO NE
ALNG OR JUST OFF THE EAST CST OVERNIGHT INTO WED NGT. DATA SUPPORTIVE
OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVR CSTL WTRS (UP TO 40 KTS) AND SRN CHES
BAY/CURRITUCK SND (35 KTS) WED. SO...WILL MAINTAIN GALE WRNGS FOR
THESE AREAS DURING WED...WITH STRONG SCA`S ACRS THE MIDDLE BAY AND
RIVERS. WINDS N-NE TO START THEN SWITCH TO NW...AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS N OF THE AREA WED NGT. THE LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER THE WTRS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT ALLOWS SEAS TO BLD TO BTWN 6-10 FT
(HIGHEST OUT NEAR 20 NM).

SCA`S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES WED NGT...AS THE LO QUICKLY
MOVES NE AND AWAY FM THE AREA. A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS THU MORNG
BEFORE YET ANOTHER CAA SURGE SEEN THU EVENG INTO FRI MORNG BEHIND
UPR LVL LO THAT EXITS OFF THE CST. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA FRI
AFTN/NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MD/VA ZONES ADJACENT
TO THE ATLC WATERS AND THE LOWER BAY DUE TO STRONG NNE FLOW WED
MORNING LEADING TO WATER LEVELS WITHIN A FEW TENTHS OF MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1.50" TO 2.50" WILL ALSO TEND TO
EXACERBATE THE FLOODING TO SOME EXTENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT. ANOMALIES SHOULD FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATER WED/WED
NIGHT AS WINDS TURN NW/OFFSHORE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE ASOS AT SALISBURY MD IS FIXED AND WE ARE RECEIVING OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM/JEF
MARINE...TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ






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