Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281450
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1050 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FA GENLY SPLIT WRT CONDS ATTM. FAIR AMT OF SUNSHINE ACRS WRN
1/2...WHILE BAND OF BKN-OVC CLDNS EXTENDS FM THE LWR MD ERN SHORE
SSW THROUGH INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC. ISOLD SHRAS HAVE OCCURRED IN
THAT CORRIDOR SO FAR THIS MRNG. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE
P-MSTLY SUNNY CONDS W...AND VRB CLDS-PCLDY E. PRIME AREA FOR
CONVECTION XPCD TO BE ACRS INTERIOR SE VA AND NE NC WHERE
LINGERING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES FM LAST EVE STMS COMBINE W/
DIFFERENTIAL HTG AND SEABREEZES. CARRYING 30-50% POPS IN THOSE
AREAS. ELSW...AMT/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION UNCERTAIN...AND WILL HAVE
MNLY 15-30% POPS. WEAK SHEAR WILL MAKE ORGANIZED STRONG STMS
UNLIKELY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LCLLY HVY RA IN SLO MOVING STMS
DUE TO WEAK FLOW AND PWATS OVER 1.50". HI TEMPS FM 85-90F...EXCEPT
70S TO L80S AT THE CST (LIKE WED AFTN...OCEAN CITY MD BEACHES MAY
NOT HAVE A HI TEMP ABV 70F).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CHC POPS LINGER THIS EVENING...MAINLY WELL INLAND...OTHERWISE
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS MAINLY FROM 65-70 F.

WK SFC HI PRES SLIDES E ACRS NEW ENG FRI. MDLS SHOW A SLGT DROP
IN DEWPTS ACRS FAR NNE COUNTIES FOR THE DAY...WHILE RMNG UP ELSW.
HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SLGTLY BUILD WWD DURING THE
DAY...SO FOCUS OF HIGHER POPS (30-40%) NW 1/2 OF FA WITH ONLY 10-20%
POPS ELSW. BY SAT...CDFNT FM THE NW APPROACHES...THOUGH RMNS FAR
ENOUGH AWAY FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WX HERE. WILL KEEP
CONDS WARM W/ VRB CLDS/PCLDY AND MAINLY JUST ABOUT A 20% POP INLAND...10%
AT THE CST. HI TEMPS FRI A TAD COOLER MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S INLAND...70S AT THE CST. LO TEMPS M60S- ARND 70F. SAT A LITTLE
WARMER WITH HIGHS UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 F INLAND TO THE 70S TO LWR 80S
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE
INTERMOUTAIN WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ERN CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC. 12Z GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH THE GFS
BRINGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THE ECMWF WAITING UNTIL MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY. THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 40-50%
POPS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. THE WIND PROFILE
WILL REMAIN WEAKLY SHEARED SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER
UNORGANIZED. POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE FORECAST TO BE
30-40% MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN TREND DOWNWARD TO
20-30% BY TUESDAY AND SUB-15% THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE THROUGH THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH A
SFC TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE RESULT IS S-SW FLOW
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL LAST NIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES. ANY REMAINING FOG/STRATUS QUICKLY BURNS OFF BY 12-13Z.

FOR TODAY...SFC WINDS BECOME SELY (AOB 10 KT) THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT WASHES OUT
NW OF THE REGION. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO BE ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES AND W COUNTIES. SCT-BKN CU DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECKS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-5K FT AGL. GUIDANCE
INDICATES MORE FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE PRECIP OCCURS TODAY.

UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRI-
SAT. BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED SUN-MON AS A
COLD FRONT REACHES...AND THEN STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE WATER. THE
RESULT IS A SW WIND OF 10-15 KT. WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED TO GENERALLY 1
TO 2 FT WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT (HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS). HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION...WASHING OUT WEST OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW BECOMES SELY THIS AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 KT.
SELY FLOW AOB 10 KT PERSISTS FRI. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS FRI NIGHT-SAT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS REMAIN SUB-SCA.
SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT FRI NIGHT-SAT THANKS TO PERSISTENT AND
INCREASING SE FLOW. COLD FRONT REACHES...AND THEN STALLS OVER THE
REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM


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