Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 211105
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
605 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves off the New England coast today. A frontal
boundary weakens as it stalls west of the mountains tonight. Low
pressure tracks east along the Gulf of Mexico and Florida coasts
Wednesday through Friday. A strong cold front crosses the area
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure shifts east and off the New England coast today.
Dry/cooler with enough CI for pt sunny skies. Highs in the mid-
upr 50s near the water, lwr 60s west of the Ches Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front approaches the mountains tonight but weakens as it pushes
east into the ridge. Moisture dissipates as it moves east but just
enough support noted for low chc pops mainly west of I95 after 09Z.
Otw, mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. Lows in the low-mid 40s.

Potent upper low along the Gulf Coast today is now progged to track
ESE across the northern GOM this afternoon and evening, cross FLA
tonight then stall off the FLA coast Thursday and Friday. The low
itself to be a non player for our area except for pieces of energy
that eject north along a trof. One such feature continues to give
the models fits with the NAM now mostly dry for AKQ fa Wed and the
GFS/ECMWF wetter. This a complete reversal from 24 hours ago.

Given the latest model trends wrt forcing, will adjust the grids
towards mainly morning shwrs along the upr trof then shift pcpn chcs
towards southern VA and northern NC after 18Z Wed as the trof continues
to push south. Continued mild despite mostly cloudy skies. Highs in the
mid-upr 60s, cooler at the beaches.

Plenty of moisture at different levels to keep skies partly to mostly
cloudy Wed nite, but little if any support for pcpn. Lows from the upr
40s north to mid 50s south.

Increasing WSW develops Thurs due to the position of the low off the
FLA coast and a deepening trough over the northern Plains/Midwest.
Models indicating enough moisture present for pt sunny to mostly cloudy
skies with isolated showers. Warmer with highs 65-70 near the water,
lwr 70s west of the Ches Bay. These temps not quite to record levels.
See CLI section below.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The models are in good agreement in the extended range showing a
flat ridge over the eastern US for the second half of the work
week. That ridge will amplify into Saturday as a trough lifts
out of the central plains into the Great Lake states which will
knock the ridge down by Sunday and return the area to more
westerly zonal flow. Overall, this will lead to another period
of well above normal temperatures along with a chance for showers
and psbl tstms as the cold front crosses the area Saturday.

The next strong sfc low will lift from the central plains into
the Great Lakes on Friday into Saturday dragging a cold front
across the region on Saturday. The guidance remains in decent
agreement for a swath of moisture and marginal dynamics with the
fropa on Sat, but with the upper trough already taking on a
negative tilt so far W of the Appalachians, could see a scenario
where precip struggles to hold together as the front moves east
of the Mtns. Will maintain chance pops (30-50%) shwrs/tstms Sat
with low end likely pops across the far N. Very warm with highs
upper 60s NW to lower-mid 70s SE. Behind the front, temperatures
will return closer to normal but will remain above avg (just not
20 to 25 degrees above normal as Fri-Sat will be). Dry Sun-mon with
highs mainly in the 50s N to the 60s S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions continue as high pressure moves off the New England
coast. Tsctns / sat loop shows widespread CI across the region and
this continues through 06Z. Cigs lower to btwn 10K-15K FT after 06Z.

OUTLOOK...Broad area of low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley
will drift to the east into Florida by Wednesday. Moisture will increase
from the south but only isolated showers are expected Wednesday. Complex
frontal system will affect the area late in the week with small chances
for showers Thursday and Thursday night. A strong cold front passes through
the Mid Atlantic States Saturday with a good chance for showers/tstrms.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions continue today as sfc high pres ridging down from
the north becomes centered offshore later this aftn. Winds will be
easterly aob 10 kt with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas
over cstl wtrs. The high remains offshore into Wed with southerly
winds aob 10 kt. Sub-SCA S/SW flow then persists until at least Fri
night ahead of the next cold front, which crosses the wtrs over the
weekend with marginal SCA conditions psbl.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Feb 2017 shaping up to rank among the warmest on record given
continued warmth over the next week. Daily record highs are
listed below, with the top 3 warmest February`s on record
listed below that. Expecting RIC and ORF to be at least into the
top 3 warmest (and possibly the warmest).

Daily Record Highs for Thursday 2/23 and Friday 2/24:

       2/23           2/24

RIC   75 in 1985    82 in 1985
ORF   79 in 1975    82 in 2012
SBY   74 in 1943    77 in 2012
ECG   77 in 1975    79 in 1985

Warmest February`s on record:

* RIC:
  1) 49.9 (1890)
  2) 48.5 (1976)
  3) 48.1 (1884)

* ORF:
  1) 52.4 (1890)
  2) 50.5 (1909)
  3) 50.1 (1990)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...JDM/MPR
LONG TERM...LKB/MPR
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ



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