Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 302036
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
236 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN CO
AND THIS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  OVERALL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT WITH DRYING LOW
LEVELS FROM DENVER SOUTHWARD.  EXPECT MAINLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH THE STORMS WITH BRIEF RAIN. AS THE SHOWERS PUSH EAST OVER THE
PLAINS...STORMS MAY GET A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE MOISTURE BY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AS QG ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG
90KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FOR THIS WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALL NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AM. THE BEST ASCENT WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT AN
EARLIER START TIME WITH THE STORMS. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE SO NOTHING TOO STRONG.  SHOULD SEE RAPID
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROF SWEEPS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. ALSO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTY W-NW WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS PLACE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG ON MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAYS
OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ZONAL WITH A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PINCHING OFF THE
FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...AND A TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT BACK INTO COLORADO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THIS TREND FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES SLIDE
INTO NORTHEAST CO ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL
ALLOW FOR SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXPECT MAIN IMPACT WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS BUT NOT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE. EXPECT
BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MAIN TROF MOVES OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO. AGAIN MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH THE TROF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS LATER
SUNDAY AM OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN


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