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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 242043
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
243 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
DRY LINE REMAINS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DRY LINE HEADS EAST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...WITH
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
EACH DAY. DRY LINE MAY MAKE A RETURN TO OUR AREA LATER NEXT WEEK
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN UNSEASONABLY
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES AND STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES. OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERNS SUCH AS THIS TEND TO BE MORE
COMMON IN APRIL. SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS CURRENTLY
PLACED UNDER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FORCED TO CLIMB THE RIDGE
TO OUR EAST. IT IS THIS FLOW THAT IS ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HIGH PLAINS OF
NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO DRAW
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF TEXAS. PRESENCE OF
THIS LEE SIDE TROUGH IS HELPING TO GIVE THIS MOISTURE A LITTLE
EXTRA TUG TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NM/RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE IS A BOUNDARY CALLED THE DRY LINE.

CURRENTLY THIS LINE RUNS ROUGHLY NORTH-SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SAN ANDRES MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND SOUTH OVER THE SALT
FLATS WEST OF JUAREZ MEXICO. DEW POINTS IN THE 40-50 DEGREE RANGE ARE
NOTED EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. FEATURE PROVIDES A LOW LEVEL FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING PRESENT TO GET THE CONVECTION GOING FROM THE
GROUND UP. OVER AREAS EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IN OTERO...EL PASO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES...CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES
TO -3 ARE NOTED AT THIS TIME. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WE ARE UNDER IS PROVIDING AN ADDED
INGREDIENT...IT IS CARRYING A SERIES OF MINOR SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AT
THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH
AS WITH THE NAM AND WRF-NMM SOLUTIONS...ARE JUST ABLE TO IDENTIFY
THESE. ONE THAT MOVED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO IN THE LAST HOUR
IS HELPING TO TOUCH OFF ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.

WIND ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW
THE ASSOCIATED MOMENTUM TO REACH THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN
GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON WHAT HAPPENS NEXT. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
BRING A TROUGH INTO THE WEST...HOWEVER THE GFS SAYS THE TROUGH
REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE EC ON THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO
BRING THE TROUGH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH INTO ARIZONA AT THAT TIME.
ALTHOUGH ITS SOLUTION IS STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS FORECAST...A GOOD SIGN LOOKING AT EVERYTHING. WILL CONTINUE
TO OPT FOR THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION IN MAINTAINING A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK TO THE TROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND MAY FALL NEAR NORMAL LATER
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 25/00Z-26/00Z. VFR CONDS THRU PD. UNTIL 18Z P6SM
SKC-SCT250 WITH WEST WINDS AOB 10KTS ALONG AND WEST OF A KALM-KELP
LINE...AFT 18Z P6SM SKC-FEW200 WITH WSW WINDS 12-18G25KTS. EAST OF
THE LINE THRU 18Z EXPECT FEW-SCT080-100 SCT- BKN200 WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SE 10-15KTS UNTIL 06Z ISOLD TO SCT 3-5SM TSRA
BKN050-070CB. AFT 18Z S TO SW WINDS AROUND 10KTS WITH FEW100 SCT-
BKN200 WITH ISOLD 3-5SM TSRA BKN060-080 MAINLY OVER HUDSPETH AND
EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY LIGHTNING MAINLY OVER EL PASO AND WESTERN
OTERO COUNTIES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS DEEP. THE
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BUT
LIKELY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP STILL LOOKS TO
BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE
90S FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  95  68  95  67 /  20  10  10   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           64  92  63  92  63 /  30  20  20  10  10
LAS CRUCES              59  94  59  94  60 /  10  10  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              59  93  60  93  61 /  20  10  10   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              46  71  46  71  41 /  30  30  20  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   60  91  59  91  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             53  92  52  91  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  54  95  54  95  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               55  92  53  91  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      68  94  68  94  69 /  20  10  10   0   0
DELL CITY               57  94  58  94  60 /  30  30  20  10  10
FORT HANCOCK            66  97  67  97  67 /  20  10  10   0  10
LOMA LINDA              57  88  58  88  57 /  20  10  10   0   0
FABENS                  66  95  66  95  66 /  20  10  10   0   0
SANTA TERESA            62  94  62  94  64 /  10  10  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  92  67  92  65 /  10  10  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           52  92  52  92  53 /  10  10  10   0   0
HATCH                   60  90  59  90  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                59  94  59  94  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               59  95  60  95  61 /  20  10  10   0   0
MAYHILL                 54  80  54  80  46 /  30  30  30  10   0
MESCALERO               45  83  45  83  46 /  30  20  20  10   0
TIMBERON                46  81  46  81  45 /  30  30  20  10   0
WINSTON                 46  84  46  84  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               54  87  54  87  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               57  90  57  90  57 /  10  10  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            46  85  45  85  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  57  89  56  88  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   49  94  47  93  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              39  91  38  90  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 54  87  53  87  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  55  93  53  92  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 54  94  53  93  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          57  94  55  93  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              52  90  51  89  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26
TRIPOLI/GRZYWACZ