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833
FXUS64 KEPZ 031105
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
505 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO NORTHERN GRANT, SIERRA, AND OTERO
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR NORMAL. THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED SLOW WARM UP, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME MOISTURE
TRIES TO WORK IN FROM THE EAST. THE WINDS AND DUST OF SPRING WILL
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN IS IN PLACE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ALBERTA SOUTHWARD INTO UTAH
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW TO ITS SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
MEANWHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
CURVES WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SHARP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE WEAK UPPER LOW IN ARIZONA
WILL PHASE WITH THIS TROUGH TODAY AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD AND CLIPS
NEW MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH DROPS IN, A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON, FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GRANT AND OTERO COUNTY.

A WEAK EASTERLY PUSH WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. I HAD TO RESIST THE TEMPTATION TO CALL
IT A BACKDOOR FRONT, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY RISE BETWEEN
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WITH
CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES AND A LACK OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE OVER THE
PLAINS, THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENT EITHER. BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO TAP
SOME MODIFIED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE, WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE LOWER 40S AS FAR WEST AS THE ARIZONA BORDER.

WITH THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, EXPECT
SOME BREEZY OVERNIGHTS/MORNINGS WEST OF THE FRANKLIN MOUNTAINS.
WINDS MAY GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE AT TIMES.

DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES IN, DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOOST IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT INCREASE
IN INSTABILITY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM...AND MAX TEMPS WILL FLIRT
WITH 90 AT EL PASO THURSDAY. BY THIS TIME THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE EAST, AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE KEY WILL BE THE QUALITY OF
THE MOISTURE. NOTE THE GFS KEEPS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WHEREAS THE NAM SPIKES THEM
INTO THE 40S.

FOR THE MEDIUM AND LONGER RANGE...A DEEP AND BROAD UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO POSITION OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY FRIDAY.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. AS THE LOW SLOWLY LUMBERS TO THE EAST, WE WILL SEE
INCREASINGLY BREEZY/DRY SW WINDS WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKING
PARTICULARLY WINDY AND POSSIBLY DUSTY. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS FLIRTING WITH 90 AGAIN ON FRIDAY...AND A
LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT SE FLOW TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING IN MOST AREAS. A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN GRANT AND
OTERO COUNTIES WITH LESSER CHANCES IN SIERRA COUNTY (INCLUDING AT
TCS).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT
TEENS OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE COMMON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED DRY LIGHTNING RISK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOMEWHAT FAVORING AREAS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE.

CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND BUT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS STORM
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. BESIDES SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 82  58  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           80  53  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              79  51  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              79  48  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              56  37  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   75  51  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             76  46  79  47 /  10   0   0   0
DEMING                  80  51  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               82  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      80  57  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               80  46  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            83  54  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              77  53  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  82  55  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            80  52  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          78  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           79  43  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   81  46  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                81  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               77  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 64  41  69  44 /  20  10   0   0
MESCALERO               66  41  71  41 /  20  10   0   0
TIMBERON                65  40  69  41 /  10  10   0   0
WINSTON                 68  37  74  40 /  10  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               74  47  80  49 /  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               78  46  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            75  36  79  38 /  10  10   0   0
HURLEY                  75  47  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   80  38  85  42 /  10   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              79  40  84  40 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 76  46  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  82  50  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 81  49  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          81  51  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              80  50  84  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN



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