Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 051041
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
341 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM PASSED EAST ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
OVERNIGHT A POWERFUL SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE
REGION. FOR OUR THURSDAY WEATHER THIS MEANS DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS WITH SOME BREEZY EAST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
BRING ON A SLOW WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR
WEATHER LOOKS GENERALLY DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT MINOR
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TO PROVIDE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE ACT OF
SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWFA WITH A BROAD SWATH OF MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON W/NW FLOW. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE UPPER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CLEARED
OUT TO OUR EAST WITH JUST SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANKING UP AGAINST
THE SACS AND GUADS. RUIDOSO AND CLOUDCROFT WEBCAMS SHOWS SOME
MINOR SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATIONS BUT RADAR INDICATES NO SNOW
SHOWERS AND MODEL AND SATELLITE INDICATE VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY MORE WITH THIS CURRENT UPPER TROUGH. THUS A DRY FORECAST IN
THE OFFERING FOR TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. IT DOES CONTINUE BREEZY
WITH THE EAST WINDS BEHIND TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT PASSAGE...BUT NO
SIGHTS ARE SHOWING SPEEDS THAT MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS WILL
CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LOOKING FORWARD TOWARD THE WEEKEND THIS CURRENT PASSING UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGED TO LEAVE A CUT-OFF CLOSED LOW LINGERING BEHIND
OVER S AZ. THIS FEATURE CONNECTS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
MOVES OVER THE CWFA AS AN OPEN TROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY AND MINOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THUS
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MTN
ZONES. ALL OTHER AREAS DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS. WITH THIS TROUGH
LINGERING AND THE EAST WINDS REMAINING THE COOL TREND WILL
CONTINUE FRI AND SAT WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
LATE MONDAY FOR A REPEAT OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON`S MINOR
SHOWER/TSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS LATE DAY. AGAIN MOST OF
THE REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THANKS TO A MOISTURE-STARVED
ENVIRONMENT AND ONLY MINOR INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE FINALLY REVERT BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PATTER FOR EARLY SPRING AND THIS WILL BRING ON
SOME HIGH CLOUDS...BUT MORE SO HELP TO WARM THE REGION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/12Z-06/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS WITH EXITING UPPER STORM. BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS SOMEWHAT BREEZY. CLOUDS WILL
BE DISSIPATING. SKIES GENERALLY FEW-SCT080. WINDS 100-130 AT
10-20KTS WITH WEST SLOPE AND GAP GUSTS TO 30KTS. WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISHING AFTER 21Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR BACK RUSHING BACK IN TODAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM
SYSTEM. COLDER AIR IN BEHIND LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL BE ON TAP
TODAY. LINGERING BREEZE EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS THOUGH MID-DAY TODAY
BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE SLACKENING WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY BUT WITH ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF WARMING.
BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS BY SUNDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AND SHALLOW
MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT VENT RATES OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 49  29  57  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           40  24  50  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              49  26  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              47  24  53  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              33  23  40  26  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   47  28  56  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             50  25  55  29  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  51  26  59  32  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               53  27  59  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      49  31  58  37  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               43  23  50  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            48  28  57  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              43  25  51  31  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  46  26  58  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            48  27  57  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          49  28  54  32  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           50  23  56  27  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   51  26  58  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                50  30  56  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               48  27  53  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 33  21  42  25  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
MESCALERO               37  23  46  26  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
TIMBERON                38  23  45  28  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 44  24  51  28  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               48  27  54  32  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               50  25  58  30  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            48  21  55  26  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  49  24  55  28  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   57  24  63  28  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              56  20  62  26  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 48  26  53  31  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  55  27  61  32  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 53  25  58  29  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          57  26  62  30  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              55  29  60  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

14-BIRD





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