Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 262101
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE FOR THE DESERT LOWLANDS BY THE
WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND
STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING AT NIGHT THAT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT IN TO A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DURING THE WEEKEND THAT WILL ESTABLISH A WEST SURFACE FLOW WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WILL APPROACH
70 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST.
A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
BOTH DAYS. LONG RANGE MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BUT ARE VARIABLE ON TIMING AND INTENSITY AT THIS TIME.
SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOWLAND
RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/00Z - 28/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. LIGHT WINDS GENLY FROM
020-050 UNDER 5 KTS THROUGH 17Z...BECOMING 110-140 AT 05-08 KTS MOST
AREAS THEREAFTER.  EXCEPTION WILL BE NM BOOTHEEL...WHERE
110-140/10-15G20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AFT 17Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS WILL MEAN SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT FROM NORTHEAST - EAST
SOUTHEAST REST OF TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTHEAST BREEZES OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL...WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH
ABE POSSIBLE MID AND LATE THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES
MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SHIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS.  POPULAR MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FORECASTING
INCREASING CLOUDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOWLAND MIN RH TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S...LOWERING A COUPLE PERCENT FRIDAY UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.
MOUNTAIN READINGS WILL END UP A FEW PERCENT HIGHER...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES EXPECTED OVER ALPINE MEADOWS.
ELSEWHERE FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERIES CAN BE EXPECTED.  FAIR TO POOR
VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 35  65  37  66  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           31  61  33  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              32  62  33  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              32  62  33  65  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              28  51  32  55  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   32  61  33  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             32  60  33  62  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  30  63  30  66  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               29  65  30  67  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      37  62  38  64  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               30  64  32  68  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            33  66  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              35  58  37  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  31  66  32  67  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            32  62  33  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          35  62  37  65  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           25  62  26  65  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   28  64  28  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                32  62  32  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               33  62  35  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 29  57  33  62  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               28  56  30  59  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                29  54  30  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 29  58  30  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               34  60  35  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               28  63  31  65  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            27  61  29  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  30  61  31  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   22  64  24  68  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              19  63  21  65  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 33  60  34  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  30  66  30  68  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 28  65  27  67  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          29  65  30  68  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              31  63  31  67  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/22 LUNDEEN/TRIPOLI





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