Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 052005
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
205 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. STORMS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A DEEP BAND OF
MONSOON MOISTURE SETS UP OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL THE ACTIVITY FROM JULY 4TH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WORKED OVER
THE ATMOSPHERE AND HAS DELAYED TODAY`S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
MOST OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE GILA REGION CLOSEST TO
A DEPARTING MCV. MEANWHILE A VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF
CHIHUAHUA...EAST OF THE MCV TRACK...MAY KICK OF STORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KEPT THE
INHERITED HIGHER POPS WITH THIS IN MIND THOUGH IT MIGHT PROVE TO
BE A LONGSHOT.

ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DISTURBANCES THERE SHOULD BE LESS STORM COVERAGE...SCATTERED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE AZ BORDER BUT ISOLATED IN THE
LOWLANDS ELSEWHERE. THEN TUESDAY EVENING A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH WESTWARD TO AT LEAST THE RIO GRANDE AND BECOME A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. EVEN IF THE FRONT CAN`T PENETRATE THAT FAR
WEST...A WEST COAST TROUGH ALONG WITH A SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE WILL
CONCENTRATE A MONSOON PLUME OVER SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX LATE
WED THROUGH FRI. THIS SHOULD AGAIN DEEPEN THE MOISTURE LAYER
OVERHEAD AND COULD EVEN BECOME A FLASH FLOOD SCENARIO IF EMBEDDED
UPPER WAVES ARRIVE ON THE SCENE. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS
INCREASED WIND SHEAR (AND SEVERE THREAT) AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH
SWINGS NORTHEAST ACROSS CA AND NV. THE TRACK OF THE WEAKENING
TROUGH MAY BE TOO DISTANT FOR INCREASED SHEAR AROUND HERE BUT
STILL SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR THU/FRI.

THE DEPARTING WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPPER RIDGE TO REFORM FURTHER WEST AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE
BORDERLAND. THOUGH THAT PROCESS WILL NOT BE COMPLETE UNTIL AFTER
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH WILL REDUCE STORM COVERAGE (EXCEPT FOR WEST OF THE DIVIDE)
AND TREND OUR MAX TEMPS BACK TOWARD THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 06/00Z-07/00Z. P6SM SCT-BKN060-080 BKN120-150 THRU
06Z WITH SCT 1-3SM +TSRA BKN020-030. AFT 06Z FEW-SCT060-080 BKN200-250
WITH GENERALLY ISOLD SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND TSRA BKN040-060 AFT 18Z.
WINDS GENERALLY W TO NW 5-15KTS AND GUSTY NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WHICH
WILL MEAN AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY MAY BE
A BIT OF A DOWN DAY BEFORE A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY. THROUGH
MIDWEEK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...BUT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER
LOW WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CA THU WHICH COULD HELP IN STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOPING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT WITH EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  96  74  95 /  50  20  30  40
SIERRA BLANCA           69  92  69  89 /  50  20  40  40
LAS CRUCES              71  94  70  93 /  50  20  30  50
ALAMOGORDO              70  93  69  91 /  50  30  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              55  71  54  68 /  60  50  60  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  92  69  91 /  50  30  30  40
SILVER CITY             64  83  64  85 /  40  50  30  50
DEMING                  70  93  70  94 /  40  20  30  40
LORDSBURG               68  91  68  94 /  40  30  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      75  96  74  95 /  50  20  40  40
DELL CITY               71  95  68  90 /  50  20  40  30
FORT HANCOCK            73  95  72  94 /  60  20  40  40
LOMA LINDA              69  91  68  87 /  50  20  40  40
FABENS                  72  96  72  94 /  60  20  40  40
SANTA TERESA            73  94  72  94 /  50  20  40  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  94  70  92 /  50  20  40  50
JORNADA RANGE           69  94  69  92 /  50  20  30  50
HATCH                   69  94  69  93 /  50  20  30  40
COLUMBUS                70  92  70  93 /  40  20  30  40
OROGRANDE               72  94  71  91 /  50  20  40  40
MAYHILL                 59  81  57  74 /  50  40  50  40
MESCALERO               58  82  57  77 /  50  40  50  50
TIMBERON                57  81  57  77 /  60  40  50  50
WINSTON                 62  84  61  83 /  50  50  40  50
HILLSBORO               66  91  65  90 /  50  40  30  50
SPACEPORT               69  93  68  92 /  50  30  30  40
LAKE ROBERTS            60  83  60  83 /  50  60  40  50
HURLEY                  65  86  65  87 /  40  40  30  40
CLIFF                   64  90  65  92 /  40  50  30  30
MULE CREEK              64  88  63  90 /  40  50  30  30
FAYWOOD                 66  87  66  88 /  40  30  30  50
ANIMAS                  67  91  67  95 /  40  30  30  30
HACHITA                 67  92  68  95 /  40  30  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  89  66  93 /  40  50  30  40
CLOVERDALE              65  86  65  90 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01/26 FAUSETT/GRZYWACZ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.