Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 132036
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
136 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE BORDERLAND FOR ANOTHER WEEK TO COME. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MANAGE TO DROP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
FLATTENED A BIT ALLOWING FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO PUSH HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS THE UPPER
FLOW WILL AGAIN AMPLIFY WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGH TO
THE EAST. AS THIS HAPPENS OUR FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TO DROP
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT COOLING TO TAKE PLACE BY MONDAY...HOWEVER
READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOOKING AT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A GOOD
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY THE MODELS TEND TO DIVERGE IN THE
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER THEY ALL AGREE THAT OUR SPELL OF DRY AND MILD
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES
HOLDING OFF UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT A STRONGER TROUGH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEK. AS SUCH WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SFC WINDS FOR THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO GATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 14/00Z-15/00Z...
A WEAK DRY DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP INTO NEW
MEXICO FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA
ATTM. P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. SFC WINDS TIL 09Z SW-NW 5-10 KTS
THEN NW- NE 6-12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND OCNL HIGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE OBSERVED DURING THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 42  74  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           40  72  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              37  72  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              38  71  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              30  50  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   38  71  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             36  68  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  34  74  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               33  72  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      43  74  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               36  74  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            41  75  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              42  71  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  40  74  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            38  73  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          40  72  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           33  72  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   34  73  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                36  74  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               41  73  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 39  63  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               32  61  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                39  61  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 35  66  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               35  71  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               36  72  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            25  68  25  66 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  34  69  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   25  72  25  69 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              24  72  23  69 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 35  71  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  36  74  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 33  74  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          36  73  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              38  72  36  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/NOVLAN


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