Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 311002
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
402 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. FOR TODAY
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY AVOID MOST RAIN
AS THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS STABILIZING THIS AREA OUT. THE UPPER HIGH
MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AIRMASS
DRIES OUT A BIT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY ACTIVE EARLY MORNING AS MCS HAS FORMED ON EAST SIDE OF
MOISTURE PLUME. IN IT`S EARLY STAGES A STRONG LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED FROM NORTHERN MEXICO UP TO LAS CRUCES.
SOME AREAS OF MDT/HVY RAIN FELL. THE STRENGTH OF THE CELLS HAS
DIMINISHED AND NOW THE SYSTEM IS MORE SPREAD OUT WITH AREAS OF MDT
RAIN. CLOUD TOP TEMPS REACHED -75C AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT HAS WARMED
TO AROUND -65C AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN.
CLOUD MASS NOW COVERING ENTIRE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND OUT TO THE
BOOTHEEL. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING. SYSTEM WILL LIKELY THROW WRENCH INTO TODAY`S CONVECTION
FORMATION. PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOUNTAINS
AND DEMING WEST...BUT THE MCS MAY DELAY/INHIBIT CONVECTION WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. FOR NOW WILL LET AFTERNOON/EVENING GRIDS
REFLECT THIS PATTERN BUT DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO UPDATE. ALSO PUT A
LOW POP BACK IN FOR MOST OF WEST TEXAS AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE BIG BEND...AND MODELS MOVE THAT UP TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WILL MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY AND PERSIST THERE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SOME...WITH LOW END SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DEMING
WEST.

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN VARYING SOLUTIONS AFTER SUNDAY BUT LATEST
RUNS OF BOTH ARE PRETTY CLOSE. THEY BOTH STRETCH HIGH OUT INTO
EAST-WEST RIDGE INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...THEN MOVE THE
HIGH BACK OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
WEDNESDAY AND LEAVING IT THERE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL
JUST LEAVE LATER PERIOD GRIDS WITH THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 31/12Z-01/12Z.
FROM 12Z TO AROUND 16Z WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BKN120
OVC200 LAYERS TO 400. SCATTERED -SHRA BKN100 WITH A FEW TSRA
BKN080CB WIND GUSTS 25-35 KTS. TO THE EAST GENLY VFR. DVLPG AFT
18Z...SCATTERED -TSRA BKN100CB WITH OCNL IFR CIG VSBY +TSRA. THESE
STORMS WILL COVER MOSTLY THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS FROM DEMING WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS FORMED WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...NEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES AND THE LOWLANDS FROM DEMING
WEST. UPPER HIGH MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SHOULD DECREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SOME AND LIMIT THEM MOSTLY
TO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES AND FAR WEST LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 96  74  97  75 /  10  10   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           93  68  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              94  68  96  69 /  20  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              93  67  96  68 /  20  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              70  49  73  51 /  40  40  30  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   91  69  94  69 /  20  20  10  20
SILVER CITY             84  63  87  64 /  50  50  20  20
DEMING                  93  69  95  69 /  40  30  10  10
LORDSBURG               93  68  95  68 /  30  30  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      96  73  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
DELL CITY               95  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            97  73  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              91  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  97  72  97  71 /   0  10   0   0
SANTA TERESA            95  71  96  72 /  10  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  69  96  70 /  10  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           93  68  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
HATCH                   93  68  96  68 /  20  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                93  70  96  70 /  40  20  10   0
OROGRANDE               94  70  96  70 /  10  10   0   0
MAYHILL                 80  55  82  57 /  40  40  30  20
MESCALERO               80  54  83  55 /  40  30  30  20
TIMBERON                80  56  82  57 /  40  30  30  10
WINSTON                 82  57  85  60 /  60  40  30  30
HILLSBORO               90  65  94  65 /  30  30  20  10
SPACEPORT               91  68  95  68 /  20  10   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            83  57  86  58 /  50  50  30  30
HURLEY                  85  64  90  65 /  40  40  20  20
CLIFF                   91  60  92  63 /  40  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              89  58  92  60 /  40  40  30  30
FAYWOOD                 87  65  92  66 /  40  30  20  10
ANIMAS                  93  68  95  67 /  30  30  20  10
HACHITA                 92  67  96  67 /  30  30  10  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          89  66  93  66 /  30  30  10  20
CLOVERDALE              87  66  91  65 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER



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