Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212028
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
228 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RETURN TO ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER FOR THE BORDERLAND THIS
EVENING THOUGH MONDAY AS INCREASED MOISTURE AND INCREASE FORCING
COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. ON THE HEELS OF
RECENT HEAVY RAIN SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THUS A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY EVENING. FLOODING
ALONG DRAINAGES...SMALL STREAMS...ARROYOS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS
IN POSSIBLE. A WEST FLOW WILL PUSH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES FOR THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONG PACIFIC
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AM EPZ SOUNDING DIDN`T QUITE REFLECT IT...BUT MODELS INDICATE A
HEALTHY INCREASE IN MOISTURE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM BOTH
THE EAST AT LOW LEVELS AND THE SW AT UPPER LEVELS. PROG SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW AN INCREASE FROM 1.25" TO AROUND 1.60" OF PW. THERE ARE A
FEW FEATURES IN THE REGION THAT SHOULD AIDE WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING AND MONDAY. TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT
TRACKING NORTH AND AN MCV FROM AN OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER NE SONORA. MODELS SHOW THIS TO SPARK STORMS AND RAIN OVER THE
WESTERN CWFA. TO OUR EAST A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
PRESS SOUTHWEST INTO THE CWFA THIS EVENING. MODELS ALSO KEY PCPN ON
THIS FEATURE. FINALLY THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK W
TO E TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. MODEL QPF AND PCPN COVERAGE IS INCREASED
WITH ALL THESE FEATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS AND THE PROSPECTS FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6PM MONDAY
EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS VARY WIDELY ON PCPN AMOUNTS AND
FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVY PCPN BULLS-EYES...SO A BROADBRUSH
APPROACH WAS NECESSARY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES EARLY TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT WEST WHICH SERVES TO TURN UPPER FLOW NORTHWEST. DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION AS THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST. THIS WILL DECREASE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE AS WELL AS REDUCE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING RAIN
INTENSITIES. THE AIRMASS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE EACH
AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PATTERN WILL REVERT BACK
TO TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE MONSOON ACTIVITY WITH STORMS FAVORED OVER
ARES MOUNTAINS...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER
LOWLANDS. WITH MORE SUN AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

WE NEXT WILL WATCH THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS A DEEP SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO PASS
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AS A CLOSED LOW SATURDAY-SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME ANOTHER E PAC TROPICAL SYSTEM...RACHEL...MAY BE PUMPING
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. IF THE SWEEPING TROUGH CAN PHASE THE
MOISTURE INTO IT...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z - 23/00Z...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING DESERT
MOUNTAIN RANGES...WILL CONVERGE ON THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALOFT...ROTATING AROUND A WEAK RIDGE THAT IS ROUGHLY OVERHEAD OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW WILL DRAG AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A RESURGENCE AGAIN TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR LINGERING IN
THEIR WAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ON MONDAY...WITH CEILINGS HOVERING AROUND MVFR.

25-HARDIMAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN FROM THE SOUTH...
AROUND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS LOCATED NEARLY OVERHEAD.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEVADA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW...WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH SCRAPING BY
TO OUR NORTH. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AS
CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE INCREASES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE ISOLATED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
UP-TICK NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY...SOIL AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

25-HARDIMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  81  65  85  64 /  70  60  40  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           62  76  61  80  58 /  70  70  40  10  10
LAS CRUCES              66  80  63  83  62 /  70  50  40  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              65  80  63  85  62 /  70  70  40  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              49  60  48  66  46 /  70  70  50  30  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  80  61  84  61 /  50  50  30  10  10
SILVER CITY             61  77  59  82  58 /  60  50  40  20  20
DEMING                  64  82  63  86  61 /  60  50  40  10  10
LORDSBURG               65  84  64  87  62 /  60  40  30  10  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      68  82  66  85  65 /  70  60  40  10  10
DELL CITY               64  80  63  82  60 /  70  70  40  10  10
FORT HANCOCK            68  82  66  86  62 /  70  70  30  10  10
LOMA LINDA              62  75  61  80  59 /  70  60  40  10  10
FABENS                  67  84  64  88  61 /  70  60  40  10  10
SANTA TERESA            66  81  65  84  63 /  70  60  40  10  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  79  64  83  61 /  60  60  40  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           63  82  61  85  58 /  60  50  40  10  10
HATCH                   64  80  62  83  59 /  60  50  40  10  10
COLUMBUS                66  84  64  84  62 /  70  50  40  10  10
OROGRANDE               66  79  64  83  62 /  70  60  40  10  10
MAYHILL                 54  68  53  73  51 /  70  70  50  30  20
MESCALERO               55  70  53  76  52 /  70  70  40  30  20
TIMBERON                54  68  53  72  52 /  70  80  50  20  20
WINSTON                 55  73  54  77  53 /  70  60  40  30  20
HILLSBORO               61  75  58  80  57 /  70  50  40  20  10
SPACEPORT               62  80  61  85  60 /  60  60  30  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            57  77  56  81  54 /  70  60  40  20  20
HURLEY                  63  79  61  82  59 /  60  50  40  20  20
CLIFF                   60  83  58  86  56 /  60  40  30  20  10
MULE CREEK              53  81  52  83  50 /  70  50  30  20  10
FAYWOOD                 63  78  61  79  58 /  70  50  40  20  10
ANIMAS                  64  84  64  88  63 /  70  40  30  30  10
HACHITA                 63  83  62  86  60 /  70  40  40  20  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  82  60  88  59 /  70  40  40  30  10
CLOVERDALE              62  82  61  86  59 /  70  50  40  30  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14/25




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