Area Forecast Discussion
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140
FXUS64 KEPZ 282100
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
300 PM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Friday`s winds, which will continue into the evening hours, bring
big weather changes to the Borderland as they bring a Pacific
storm and cold front to the region overnight. This will mean
chances for isolated showers, especially over the area mountains,
tonight and Saturday. It also means much cooler weather for the
weekend as temperatures drop 15, to nearly 20 degrees, on
Saturday. The storm departs the region Sunday with dry
northwesterly flow returning. The work week ahead will be warmer
and dry with some afternoon breezy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moisture swath ahead of approaching upper low storm system is
keeping high and mid clouds over the forecast area today. Lower
level moisture and dynamics associated with the dropping storm
system is still to our north producing showers across N Central
NM. This entire system will continue to track south out of Utah,
across the Four Corners this evening, and into northern NM
overnight. As the system closes in later today we should see some
instability develop over our northern mountain areas as PVA and
cooling aloft move over. We are expecting scattered shower
development, with high snow levels, over these areas this evening.

The other feature that might be a genesis for precip is a strong
Pacific cold front which will push in from the NW tonight. This
may be a surface-based focus for short-duration light pcpn
(sprinkles) across the lowlands as the boundary passes. It will
also keep the winds up well into the evening as it presses in and
tightens pressure gradients. We`re allowing most the area to drop
it`s wind advisory at 10 pm...but keeping it breezy beyond. Also
keeping the wind advisory over the zones immediately east of the
Franklins/Organs/San Andres ranges until 3 am due to mountain wave
affect. Overnight...snow levels will drop with the front, but so
will moisture amounts in the environment as drier air fills in
post front. PW`s with the front will spike to around 3/4 inch...
and the fall back to around 1/4" by Saturday morning.

Saturday the main storm center passes east over central NM just to
our north. This is when our region will see the best dynamics over
our forecast area, however deficient moisture appears to be a
significant limiting factor for additional PCPN over most of the
region. The focus for PCPN potential will shift E over the SACs
and surrounding area. Winds will continue breezy as high pressure
fills in at the surface. Temperatures will be quite cooler with
fcst h85 temps dropping 10-14C. Thus well below normal temps for
Saturday. Sunday the system will be rapidly departing the region
out into the Central U.S. Plains. Our region will come under deep
dry NW flow. Temperatures will continue cool but begin to
moderate. Winds will finally show a significant drop in ave.
speed.

Monday onward a broad area of high pressure aloft will anchor off
the Western U.S. coast. Monday and Tuesday will be benign with
warming, near seasonal temps, and dry wx/clearer skies/winds light
to marginally breezy.

Wednesday the storm track remain north and east as the ridge to
our west remains in place, but there is a sharp upper impulse that
will carve out over the Rockies and pass to our east. This looks
to miss us as far as PCPN is concerned, but it does serve to push
a backdoor cold front back into the area out of the Plain`s
states. This will mean a cool down to back below normal temps.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 29/00Z-30/00Z...
P6SM SCT080 SCT-BKN100-150 SCT-BKN250 through period. Mainly N of a
SVC-ALM line over the mountains...widely scattered -SHRA BKN040 OVC.
and isold -TSRA with small hail is also possible in these same areas.
Winds W 20g30kts becoming NW-NE 15g25 ts aft 09z. S of this line
SCT060-080 SCT-BKN 100-140 and BKN200-250. WIND 240-270 22G32 KNTS
WITH ISOLD G 45 KTS UNTIL 03Z WITH LOCAL 4SM BLDU S of LSB-ALM line.
Winds becoming WNW 15g25 kts aft 12z. Ocnl mdt turbc ovr and nr mtns
esply east slopes BLO 15k ft msl.

20-Novlan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Expect a mixed bag of weather ahead of a major system coming in
later today and Saturday dropping down from the central Rockies into
New Mexico. Windy and dusty lowlands E of the Rio Grande this
afternoon Critical fire. Critical fire weather condition`s are
expected Saturday over the low elevations of the southwest quarter
of New Mexico. Some showers or a thunderstorm are possible over the
mountains. The cold front with this system will move through later
tonight. Some showers may continue over the mountains. Much colder
air will move in by Saturday with daytime highs some 15 to 20
degrees cooler than today. This colder air may eventually produce
some light snow (1-3 inches) in the mountains, mainly above 7000 ft
in the Sacramento Mountains. The storm will clear out Sunday. Temps
will be back to above normal by Monday.

20 Novlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 61  65  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           57  64  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              52  62  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              52  59  38  68 /  20  30  20   0
Cloudcroft              32  37  25  45 /  50  40  30   0
Truth or Consequences   47  56  37  71 /  20  20  10   0
Silver City             41  55  34  66 /  20  30   0   0
Deming                  48  63  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               48  65  39  74 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      60  64  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               57  67  37  73 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Hancock            60  69  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              54  59  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  60  67  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            56  64  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          56  61  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           47  60  34  71 /   0   0  10   0
Hatch                   48  62  37  74 /   0   0  10   0
Columbus                54  66  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               55  62  40  70 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                 37  46  27  55 /  50  40  30   0
Mescalero               37  45  27  54 /  60  40  30   0
Timberon                38  46  27  53 /  50  40  20   0
Winston                 31  51  27  62 /  30  40  20   0
Hillsboro               42  55  34  69 /  20  30  10   0
Spaceport               44  58  33  71 /  10  20  10   0
Lake Roberts            35  54  30  65 /  30  30  10   0
Hurley                  41  58  34  68 /  10  10   0   0
Cliff                   39  62  36  72 /  20  20   0   0
Mule Creek              39  60  37  70 /  20  20   0   0
Faywood                 42  57  35  68 /  10  10   0   0
Animas                  48  66  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 47  65  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          49  66  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              46  61  38  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ403>407-
     411>413-417.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ112.

     Wind Advisory until 4 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ413.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ401>412-414>417.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for NMZ111.

TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>424.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory until 4 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ419.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418-420>424.

&&

$$

14/20



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