Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 210942
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
242 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level disturbance will move across New Mexico and
west Texas today while a surface low pressure system strengthens
to the east. This weather pattern will bring windy and cooler
weather across the Borderland today with the winds diminishing
this evening. Dry weather will continue  the remainder of the
week with temperatures warming to near normal after Monday.
Another storm system may bring windy conditions again next Friday
followed by cooler temperatures Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A Pacific cold front was moving into eastern portions of the CWA
early this morning while an associated deep upper trough was
entering western New Mexico. Front should be east of the area by
sunrise while the upper trough moves eastward across New Mexico
and west Texas this morning and early this afternoon. Strong
trough dynamics will further strengthen surface low over eastern
Colorado with this pattern sustaining tight low and mid level
gradients across the region. Thus windy conditions should persist
through the afternoon. Little moisture with the system so expect
mostly dry weather today despite upward forcing ahead of trough.
Cold air advection behind the front will lower today`s high
temperatures to around 5 degrees below normal.

Winds will diminish this evening as upper trough and surface low
move further east. Northwest winds will sustain inflow of cool air
on Monday with temperatures remaining about 5 degrees below
normal. A weak upper trough will then move slowly across New
Mexico and west Texas Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. This
system will bring only some mid and high clouds with temperatures
just slightly cooler than normal. Slight warming should then occur
on Thursday via southerly surface winds.

Another deep upper trough with a cold front will move west to
east across New Mexico and west Texas on Friday while a surface
low deepens to the northeast. This scenario may bring mild windy
conditions back next Friday followed by cooler temperatures
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 21/12z-2/12z.
VFR conditions most areas but with very isolated areas of
visibility less than 2 miles in blowing dust through 00z. Surface
winds gusting from 40 to 50 mph most areas through 00z with
moderate or greater turbulance below 6000 feet agl especially
along eastern facing mountain slopes. Winds diminishing after 00z.
Skies mostly 050-080SCT-BKN through 18z then SCT100.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A strong upper level disturbance will move across New Mexico and
west Texas today while a surface low pressure system strengthens
to the east. This weather pattern will bring windy and cooler
weather across the Borderland today with the winds diminishing
this evening. Winds will gust around 40 to 50 mph resulting in
near Red Flag conditions over a few locations especially across
west Texas and eastern Otero County. Dry weather will continue
across the region the remainder of the week with lighter winds
and with temperatures warming to near normal after Monday.
Another storm system may bring windy conditions again next Friday
followed by cooler temperatures Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 54  28  52  26 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           54  27  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              50  24  50  23 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              51  27  47  22 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              24  19  41  21 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   51  24  49  22 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             39  17  48  22 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  50  22  51  21 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               49  24  52  21 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      52  27  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               55  28  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            58  30  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              46  25  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  56  30  52  24 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            53  26  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          51  25  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           51  25  49  20 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   52  25  53  20 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                53  24  50  22 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               52  26  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 38  23  48  23 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               35  22  45  22 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                36  22  44  23 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 42  17  45  17 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               46  20  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               50  24  49  21 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            38  16  51  16 /  20   0   0   0
Hurley                  41  18  49  19 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   44  23  54  17 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              42  23  50  23 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 43  18  50  22 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  51  23  56  20 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 50  23  54  19 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          52  26  54  21 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              46  24  52  23 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
     for NMZ405>407.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ411-413>417.

TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

05 Rogash



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