Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230850
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
250 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSYS...
THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT KEPT FRIDAY CLOUDY...COOL...AND
INTERMITTENTLY WET HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER ALL
BUT HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
BORDERLAND WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY WILL BE
WARMER WITH DESERT TEMPERATURES REACHING FOR 90 THIS AFTERNOON.
WE`LL SEE LOTS OF SUN WITH PUFFY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS IT SNEAKS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
MEAN MOST AREAS WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EACH DAY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE EARLY WEEK...AND THEN EAST
MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE LOWER 90S WHICH IS JUST
ABOUT NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT. DEEP
WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SHOVING YESTERDAY`S
DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND IMPORTING DRIER AIR OVER NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWFA. THE SE CWFA ZONES WILL HOLD ON TO THE BEST MOISTURE
WHILE THE REST OF THE CWFA HAS ONLY MINOR RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THUS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VOID
OF ANY RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ONLY THE FAR SE ZONES AND
MAYBE THE SACS MAY SEEN ANY ISOLATED RAIN/STORMS. WITH MORE SUN
AND LESS MOISTURE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICK TO REBOUND
TODAY. EXPECT LOWLANDS TO GET BACK TO THE U80 TO AROUND 90 THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH STOPS JUST SHORT OF THE SEASONAL NORM.

FOR SUNDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN A DROPPING WEST COAST
TROUGH AND THE GULF HIGH TO OUR EAST. THERE IS NOT A GREAT AMOUNT
OF CHANGE BUT WE LOOK TO BEGIN TO PICK UP DEEPER SOUTHERLIES
AGAIN IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THUS WE`LL
PROBABLY BEGIN TO SEE A SLIGHT RAIN/STORM INCREASE. THUS WE WILL
GO BACK TO THE TYPICAL MONSOON FORECAST OF PM SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH ISOLATED LOWLAND COVERAGE AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE. THE
AREAS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE SW NM AS
THE BETTER AND DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL.
TEMPERATURES

THROUGH EARLY WEEK THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STEADY WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW PATTERN LOCKED IN OVER THE REGION AS THE WESTERN U.S.
TROUGH AND GULF HIGH REMAIN CONSTANT. THUS VERY LITTLE OR NO
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS LOOK FLAT WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
EACH DAY. EXPECT A DAILY REPEAT OF PM SHOWERS AND STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE`RE STILL WONDERING ABOUT MARIE. SHE
WILL BE THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE TRACKING NORTHWEST UP
THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST AND HEADING OUT TO SEA OFF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO ADD DEEPER
MOISTURE TO THE FLOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DESERTS BY MID WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME WE MAY BE WELCOMING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM MARIE...WE WILL ALSO SEE THE WEST COAST
TROUGH BEGIN TO EJECT EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUE EVE/WED. THIS
COMBO IS LIKELY TO INCREASE RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY WESTERN ZONES.

WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WE`LL BE WATCHING FOR A
POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVAL FROM THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL DROP
IF AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO INCREASE SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EAST ZONES
DURING THIS PERIOD. WE`RE STILL NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THE GFS IS BECOMING MORE BULLISH ON IT.

FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND MODELS ARE INDICATING A SHARP DRYING
TREND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND BRINGS A DEEP AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. UNDER
THIS SCENARIO THE WEST ZONES WILL BE QUITE DRY WHILE THE EASTERN
ZONES MAY STILL HAVE SOME CHANCE AT PCPN WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE...LESS STABILITY...AND POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z - 24/12Z...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE ISOLATED TODAY AND THE
FOCUS WILL PRIMARILY BE OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND MAYBE THE BOOTHEEL
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
AND DRY WITH A GOOD FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD. THUS VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS WITH NO CIGS. SKIES SKC EARLY BCMG
SCT100 AFT 17Z. WINDS GENERALLY 220-250 5-15KTS. OVR HUDSPETH AND
SE OTERO ISOLD TSRA WITH BKN080 VRB25-35KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TODAY...AND BE PRIMARILY
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS. ACTIVITY SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SCOOPS UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. DEPENDING ON HOW THE INTERACTION WITH THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE GOES...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN.THE REGION RECEIVED A WIDE RANGE OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FROM THIS LATEST STORM SYSTEM...RANGING FROM ONLY ONE-TENTH TO
OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING SLOWLY TO THE EAST WHICH WILL MAKE FOR DRIER DAYS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER FOR THE EVENING HOURS TODAY THE AREAS WEST OF
THE RIO GRAND WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST ARE LIKELY TO SEE
MORE SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS WEEKEND
LESS MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSLATE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND LESSER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS OVER FEWER
AREAS. FOR NEXT WORK WEEK WE SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH MONSOON
MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE BORDERLAND TO GET DAILY ROUNDS OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 90  69  93  71  94 /   0   0  10  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           89  68  90  67  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
LAS CRUCES              89  67  92  67  93 /   0   0  10  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              92  66  88  66  89 /   0   0  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              70  48  72  48  72 /  10   0  30  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   85  66  90  66  88 /   0   0  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             83  58  84  61  85 /   0   0  20  30  20
DEMING                  88  66  92  66  93 /   0   0  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               87  65  91  65  92 /   0   0  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      90  70  93  71  93 /   0   0  10  10  20
DELL CITY               90  68  94  67  95 /  20   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            93  70  95  71  97 /  20  10   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              86  67  88  69  87 /  10   0  10  20  20
FABENS                  92  68  93  69  96 /  10   0   0  10  10
SANTA TERESA            90  68  92  68  93 /   0   0  10  20  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          89  68  92  68  93 /   0   0  10  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           88  67  92  67  93 /   0   0  10  10  20
HATCH                   89  66  92  66  93 /   0   0  20  20  20
COLUMBUS                89  68  93  68  94 /   0   0  20  20  20
OROGRANDE               87  68  89  68  90 /   0   0  10  10  20
MAYHILL                 82  54  81  55  80 /  10   0  30  20  30
MESCALERO               81  54  80  55  79 /  10   0  30  20  30
TIMBERON                78  55  79  56  78 /  10   0  30  20  30
WINSTON                 83  53  84  55  83 /   0   0  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               86  62  89  64  88 /   0   0  30  20  20
SPACEPORT               86  66  89  66  90 /   0   0  10  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            82  58  85  60  84 /   0   0  30  30  30
HURLEY                  84  61  85  63  88 /   0   0  20  30  20
CLIFF                   84  53  86  55  86 /   0   0  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              81  51  84  52  83 /   0   0  30  30  30
FAYWOOD                 86  61  91  63  90 /   0   0  20  20  20
ANIMAS                  87  65  90  66  90 /   0   0  20  20  20
HACHITA                 88  65  91  65  92 /   0   0  20  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          87  63  90  63  91 /  10   0  20  20  20
CLOVERDALE              84  63  85  65  84 /  10   0  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD




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