Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222001
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
201 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly winds under high pressure aloft will bring one more day
of hot mostly dry weather on Friday. A cold front will move
through the region Friday night with easterly winds behind the
boundary transporting cooler but also more moist unstable air. As
a result showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
Borderland this weekend and continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper high center will move slowly east through southern Arizona
into southern New Mexico today through Friday while surface low
drifts southward through eastern New Mexico into west Texas. This
pattern will sustain west to northwest surface winds under
subsidence aloft resulting in more hot near record high
temperatures and mostly dry weather again on Friday.

A cold front will move to the southwest through the CWA Friday
night. High pressure settling into the southern plains will
combine with thermal/heat low over Arizona to generate rather
strong east to southeast winds behind the front with advection of
cooler but also very moist air mass occurring. Consequently
surface dewpoints will surge into the mid 50s west to lower 60s
east by late Saturday morning with precipitable rising to above
normal ranging from 1 to 1.3 inches most areas. The increase in
water vapor will make air mass rather unstable with CAPE`s from
1000 to 2000 J/kg by early Saturday afternoon. Thus risk of deep
convection will increase this weekend and continue Monday and
Tuesday.

With high pressure aloft do not expect much dynamic forcing but
the abundant moisture plus lack of convective inhibition should
allow surface heating and upslope flow to initiate updrafts in the
afternoon with resultant outflow boundaries sustaining activity
into the evening. High values of moisture and moderate
instability indicate threat of locally heavy rains and flash
flooding while DCAPE values above 1000 J/kg may support a few
strong downdrafts. Finally the instability may be sufficient for
several storms to produce marginally severe hail.

Longer range models show ridge axis sinking south of the border
by Thursday with zonal westerly flow aloft across the southern
Rockies. Associated downslope winds will induce surface troughing
through eastern New Mexico with westerly winds also occurring in
the boundary layer. These trends may possibly bring warmer drier
weather by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/00Z-24/00Z...
VFR conditions with SKC - FEW-SCT 100-140 200-250. ISOLD CB/TSTM
PSBL OVR SACS/GILAS psbl until 04Z. Increasing WNW flow aloft will
help form a lee surface low/trough east of the mtns with general
winds W-NW 10g20kts and ocnl lgt turbc ovr/nr mtns E slopes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure aloft will remain over Arizona and New Mexico through
the remainder of the week. Daytime max temperatures will be near
record levels today and Friday with a short- lived drying trend
which will significantly reduce storms today and Friday. Most storms
will be over the area mountains. A backdoor push from the east
beginning late Friday will bring cooler air and a moisture increase
to the region Friday evening into Saturday. Temperatures will drop
pack to normal for the weekend and all of next week as east winds
and increasing moisture bring substantial storm chances to the
region for the weekend which will continue well into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 82 108  78  93 /   0   0   0  20
Sierra Blanca           78 106  73  89 /  10  10   0  20
Las Cruces              77 106  74  92 /   0   0   0  20
Alamogordo              76 106  71  89 /   0   0   0  30
Cloudcroft              62  82  55  67 /  10  20  20  40
Truth or Consequences   78 105  73  91 /   0   0   0  40
Silver City             71  99  67  89 /   0   0   0  40
Deming                  76 106  71  93 /   0   0   0  20
Lordsburg               74 106  70  96 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro      83 107  78  93 /   0   0   0  20
Dell City               76 108  71  90 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Hancock            79 109  75  93 /   0   0   0  20
Loma Linda              78 103  73  87 /   0   0   0  20
Fabens                  81 109  76  93 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Teresa            80 107  76  93 /   0   0   0  20
White Sands HQ          80 106  76  91 /   0   0   0  20
Jornada Range           75 106  71  91 /   0   0   0  20
Hatch                   75 107  72  93 /   0   0   0  20
Columbus                79 107  74  95 /   0   0   0  20
Orogrande               78 107  75  91 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                 67  91  58  74 /  10  20  20  40
Mescalero               66  93  58  76 /  10  20  20  40
Timberon                66  91  59  75 /  10  20  20  40
Winston                 68  96  61  84 /   0   0  10  50
Hillsboro               73 101  67  88 /   0   0  10  50
Spaceport               74 106  70  91 /   0   0   0  30
Lake Roberts            63  97  58  87 /   0   0  20  50
Hurley                  70 102  66  90 /   0   0   0  30
Cliff                   69 106  65  95 /   0   0   0  30
Mule Creek              71 103  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                 71 102  67  88 /   0   0  10  30
Animas                  75 107  70  97 /   0   0   0  20
Hachita                 75 106  70  96 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells          74 106  70  96 /   0   0   0  20
Cloverdale              71 103  68  93 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT Friday for NMZ404>407-409>413-417.

TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT Friday for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

05 Rogash/20 Novlan


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