Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMKX 280205
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
NEW GUIDANCE ROLLING IN IS SHOWING DRY AIR HOLDING STRONG ACROSS
THE AREA A BIT LONGER INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO
EXIT AND LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND THEY ARE
HOLDING OFF PRECIP FOR THE WESTERN AREAS UNTIL AFTER 18Z. HAVE
ALREADY TRIMMED BACK POPS AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE FULL SUITE OF DATA LATER ON. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE MID DECK OF CLOUDS
THAT WAS OVER US HAS EVAPORATED...LEAVING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A
WHILE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT DON/T EXPECT IT TO
GET OUT OF HAND.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE ROLLING IN IS
DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z FRI AT KMSN AND PROBABLY THROUGH
03-06Z AT KMKE/KENW/KUES. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE
EASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z THURSDAY. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO STREAM EASTWARD INTO THE
AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY...BUT THE
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT THIS. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING BEST UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
NOSE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MORNING
MAY END UP BEING DRY AS WELL WITH INFLUENCE OF HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS IN THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING PER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

BROUGHT IN HIGH POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AS
THIS AREA GETS BRUSHED BY DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITHIN FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 850 MB LOW LEVEL
JET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.80 TO 2.00 INCHES IN THAT AREA
SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTORMS OVER SW AND WEST CENTRAL WI THU EVENING WILL
BE DRIVEN NEWD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN WI ON THE NOSE OF A NWD
MOVING LOW LEVEL JET STREAM AND SFC WAVE. LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND WRN CWA. OTHERWISE
SCT TSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THE CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE SO
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS VERY LOW OVER THE FAR NWRN CWA.

THE REMAINING SW-NE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ACT AS A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND SRN WI FOR FRI-SAT. ANOTHER AREA
OF CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FRI AFT/EVE AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INTERMITTENT
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FRI NT INTO SAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND VERY SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVE ACROSS SRN WI. PWS REMAIN HIGH
FROM 1.70-1.90 INCHES WHILE CORFIDI MAGNITUDES ARE ONLY 5 KTS. THE
MEAN STORM MOTION HOWEVER IS SWLY AT 25-35 KTS FOR FRI AFT/NIGHT
BUT DECREASES TO 15-25 KTS FOR SAT. SOME FLASH FLOOD THREAT WOULD
EXIST FOR ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF TSTORMS...BUT
OVERALL FRONTAL LIFT IS WEAK WITH UNCERTAINTY ON PROLONGED
CONVECTION OVER SUFFICIENTLY LARGE AREAS. CONTINUED THE ESF TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVERS TO
RISE THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SAT NT AND SUN AM. SLY FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
FOR SUN AFT AND EVE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SRN
CANADA WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FORECAST. A DRY AND
PLEASANT AIRMASS WITH THEN PREVAIL FOR TUE-WED.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES FOR MOST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT...THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT MAY GET LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LIGHT FOG AT MADISON
AND KENOSHA...MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LEFT
OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD REACH MADISON AT TIMES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING...WILL
HOLD OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD VICINITY THUNDER
WORDING THERE DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.