285
FXUS63 KMKX 092023
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
323 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues to taper off from north to south this
  afternoon. Some isolated redevelopment of showers this evening
  may occur (25% chance), then dry weather thereafter.

- North wind gusts and waves should decline below Small Craft
  Advisory levels by late this evening.

- Periods of showers and a few rumbles of thunder are expected
  (70% chance) Friday evening through Friday night, with a
  smaller chance (25%) for some isolated redevelopment of
  showers Saturday afternoon. Strong storms are not expected at
  this time.

- Additional shower/storm chances at times (50% or less) later
  Sunday into the middle of next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 323 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Tonight through Friday night:

Radar currently shows stratiform rain over southern areas of
the CWA, exiting towards the south. Some widely scattered
showery activity is evident to our north and will drift inbound
this evening, but is only expected to amount to a 25% precip
chance, considering the drier air advecting in at low levels. A
brief surface ridge will allow for a window of dry weather late
tonight through Friday afternoon, then a shortwave trough with
an accompanying surface low (a clipper system) passes Friday
evening. delivering another burst of showery weather (70% precip
chance). With the trough advecting cold air aloft, mid-level
lapse rates may steepen enough for some weak thunderstorms, but
no strong to severe storms are expected at this time.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 323 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Saturday through Thursday:

A weak impulse in the northwest flow may bring an isolated
shower or storm to southern Wisconsin Saturday afternoon, but
otherwise it should be dry much of the day. Partly cloudy skies
and near normal temperatures are expected.

Breezy southwest winds will pull milder conditions into southern
Wisconsin ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Temps
will rise well into the 70s, with a few spots possibly cracking
80, with plenty of sunshine likely into at least early
afternoon. A shortwave will then bring a chance of showers and
storms late afternoon and evening.

Additional weak shortwaves will bring shower/storm chances to
southern Wisconsin at times Tuesday through Thursday, with
temperatures within a few degrees of normal each day.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 323 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Rain will continue to exit this afternoon, with a few showers
possibly lingering into the evening. Skies will then gradually
clear out north to south this evening into tonight, returning
southern Wisconsin to widespread VFR conditions. Dry weather is
expected Friday morning into much of the afternoon, with showers
and a few storms then likely by Friday evening, winding down
early Friday night. Ceilings may dip below VFR conditions for a
short while as the showers move through.

Light winds tonight will increase out of the west Friday, with a
lake breeze likely to develop near the lake by the afternoon
hours.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 323 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Low pressure over the Ohio River Valley will move eastward this
evening and tonight, while high pressure drops southward
through Minnesota into Iowa. Breezy northerly winds this
afternoon will gradually become lighter this evening into
tonight, with the lighter winds hanging on into Friday morning.
The Small Craft Advisory continues until 10 pm CDT.

Low pressure will then move southeastward across Lake Michigan
later Friday into Friday night. Southerly winds will become
breezy ahead of the low by Friday afternoon, with breezy
northwest winds developing Friday night into Saturday behind the
low. Breezy southerly winds are expected once again on Sunday
ahead of the next approaching low pressure system.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM
     Thursday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee