Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 271023
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
523 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
SUNDAY. DRIER...COLDER AIR SLOWLY BUILDS IN TO CLOSE OUT 2014.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE LIGHT PCPN IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PCPN IS FALLING
FROM AN UPPER DECK OF CLOUDS MOST OF IT NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PARTIAL CONTROL TODAY...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND SOUTHWEST AT H850.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AHEAD OF THE
UPCOMING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PER MODEL CONSENSUS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY 09-12Z SUNDAY.

WENT CLOSER TO ALL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL...MODELS LOCKED INTO THE SHORT TERM PATTERN PRETTY WELL
WHICH EQUATES TO MINIMAL CHANGES ACROSS THE SHORT TERM. BIGGEST
CHANGES ARE BUMPING UP THE POPS WITH ADDED CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE STORY IS THE SAME WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING IN...GOING STATIONARY WITH A WAVE FORMING ALONG
IT...AND ULTIMATELY HAVING DIFFICULTY EXITING THE AREA WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOWS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. AS NOTED LAST NIGHT...NO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS KEEPS
THIS SYSTEM ON THE WEAKER SIDE WITH QPF TOTALS LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH FOR THE MOST PART. STILL HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT POSSIBLE
SNOW TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST RIDGES OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT EVENTUALLY TO MORE NORMAL
DECEMBER VALUES...BUT  STILL NOT TAPPING INTO ANY REALLY COLD ARCTIC
AIR JUST YET. FEW CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM AS
WELL WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGES BEING TO THE SOUTHEAST OHIO
COUNTIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAKING THEM BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE POPS TAPERING OFF
MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE DEPARTS. BRING BACK IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURE TROUGH AND WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...SO DO START INCREASING POPS RIGHT AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD. BLENDED NEW WPC GUIDANCE INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
TEMPS...AND THEN WENT JUST A TOUCH COOLER ON LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z SUNDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO TOWARDS 09Z SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUING TO
PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THESE SHOWERS. CODED MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z
SUNDAY BECOMING IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BECOME IFR WITH THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 12/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.