Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 172054
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
354 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front pushes through this afternoon into tonight. Active
pattern continues with another warm system for the end of the
week and yet another early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2 PM Tuesday...

Warm front has passed through the region and temperatures are
now climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s. Cold front will
enter the Ohio Valley this afternoon and be through the region
later tonight. Not much upper level support with the front as
such, the shower activity will be isolated across the Eastern
Forecast Area. Showers will likely be more numerous in the
mountains with upslope enhancement but still not enough
confidence in coverage to go with categorical PoP.

Quite a bit of stratus behind the front trapped below inversion
at about 4K feet. Clouds will likely persist through the
forecast period with possibly even some patchy drizzle in some
areas. Well mixed as well below this inversion and winds will be
a bit gusty behind the front out of the west from 15 to 25 mph.

Another short wave/positive tilted upper system passes through
the region tomorrow and will likely bring more showers to the
mountains. Enough cold air looks to filter in aloft to change
rain over to snow across the higher elevations, but not thinking
much in the way of accumulation. Some uncertainty on exactly
how high the rain/snow line will be. Right now, forecast
guidance supports a rain/snow mix above 2500 feet and all snow
above 3000 to 3500 feet.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM Tuesday...

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure bring dry weather
Wednesday night into Thursday. However, low level moisture
trapped beneath an inversion will keep stratus / low stratocu
around well into Thursday.

By the time the low clouds break up, higher clouds will be on
the increase, in response to an upper level negatively tilted
short wave trough approaching from the southwest. This system,
an upper level low over the desert southwest this afternoon,
opens up as it lifts through the area Thursday night and Friday.

Models disagree on the onset of the rain late Thursday, but
another decent rain will keep area soils soggy. With the short
wave trough lifting through a ridge position near the east
coast, short wave ridging quickly builds in its wake Friday
night, and the system is largely tantamount to a big warm front.
This will leave friday night mild, with areas of low cloud and
fog.

No important deviations from guidance temperatures, above
normal and nearly entirely above freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 PM Tuesday...

Area begins this period under large scale ridging on Saturday,
but this ridge is quickly shunted to the east, as a big piece
of energy from the long wave trough position out west pushes
east, toward the area.

This system begins as a large upper level low, that then opens
up into a short wave trough as it lifts out through the area
Monday-Tuesday. This is likely to bring rain showers back into
the area on Sunday. These showers may become rather chaotic in
coverage by Monday given we have an aging upper low that then
opens up and weakens.

Given model concurrence of the amplitude of the system, an HWO
heads up may be considered for wind and rain, mainly as the
system initially moves into the area.

The weather dries out Tuesday as the system exits to the
northeast.

Temperatures close to guidance, and continuing above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

Isolated showers through the region this afternoon with
scattered showers in the mountains tonight as a weak cold front
pushes through. Some heavier showers will bring some brief IFR
conditions across the north with PKB and CKB starting off the
18Z period with these showers overhead. Outside of showers we
will likely see VFR visibilities and MVFR stratus.

Stratus field behind the cold front is robust and should persist
through the TAF period, and although for the most part guidance
keeps ceilings just above IFR there is still some uncertainty
that some sites may drop below, especially in the mountains.
Winds will be gusty out of the west behind the front as well.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of areas of showers will vary,
along with category changes. Brief IFR possible and IFR possible
in mountains with low level clouds tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    L    H    M    M    M    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    L    M    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    L    M    H    M    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in rain Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...MPK



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