Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 031507
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1107 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO OUR EAST ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...

BAGGY SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU KY AS OF 15Z. THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE NUDGED A HAIR N OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS...NOW A BIT N OF I64 CORRIDOR. RLX VAD VERIFIES THIS WITH A
SSW LLVL FLOW. BAND OF SHRA ALONG THE FRONT HAVE ALL BUT
DISSIPATED AS THEY WORKED INTO THE N LOWLANDS AND SE OH...THUS
MUCH OF S HALF OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A LULL. EXPECT THIS
AREA TO FILL BACK IN THIS AFTN AS SHRA../PERHAPS A FEW BOOMERS AS
WELL/ DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. PWATS WILL RISE TO NEAR 2
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SO...DESPITE THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION REMAINING OVER TN VALLEY...THINK EFFICIENT DOWNPOURS
TILL A GOOD BET IN THIS LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...THE WATCH
CONTINUES FOR S HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH IS THE WETTEST BY FAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING BACK INTO
THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
WITH WEAK FLOW. DUE TO THIS...ADDED A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE OHIO AND CENTRAL WV. DOWNPOURS ARE
JUST AS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOT IN
PLACE...BUT THIS AREA HAS HAD SOME TIME TO DRY OUT SINCE THE LAST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED ISSUES SHOULD A SLOW MOVING CELL OR REPETITIVE CELLS
CROSS A SPECIFIC AREA.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A DRY SLOT OF SORTS MOVING INTO THE WV COAL
FIELDS TODAY. NOT SURE THE LOW WILL GET SPUN UP ENOUGH TO PULL IN
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO BE A TRUE DRY SLOT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A BIT SPOTTIER COVERAGE OR LESS INTENSE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HERE. DID TRY TO SHOW A BIT LOWER POPS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE
LIKELY NUMBERS. AS THE LOW HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...DRIER AIR
WILL SLOWLY TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE NW. WHILE PRECIP SHOULD
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WEST...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.

USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH DID NOT MAKE ANY HUGE
SWINGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT LEERY/SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z NAM PUSHING THE DRIER AIR
QUICKLY SE ON SATURDAY AND EVEN KEEPING OUR EASTERN SLOPES DRY
SUNDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER DRYING TREND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUDS TRY TO BREAK
UP. YET...WAS STILL FASTER IN REMOVING POPS SATURDAY IN OUR MID
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING ATHENS...MARIETTA...AND
PARKERSBURG...THEN OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER
SATURDAY SHOULD RESTRICTED TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON EAST.

WITH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...TRIED TO LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE GRADIENT
OR TRANSITION ZONE...INCLUDED FOG FORMING CKB-EKN TO CRW VCNTY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK 500 MB LOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  A WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY SNOWSHOE...BECKLEY
ON SW TOWARD GRUNDY.

AT LEAST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE LOWERING DURING THE SHORT
TERM...COMPARED TO THE CURRENT NEAR TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY...A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DENSE FOG DID NOT REALLY FORM AS INITIALLY THOUGHT...MAINLY DUE
TO SOME PUFFS OF WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS. AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY IN RAIN...STORMS AND OR LOW STRATUS. AS RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING...WILL LIKELY BE LEFT WITH LOW STRATUS MIXED WITH FOG
LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NE TO E...WITH SW WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF DOWNPOURS AND STORM
TODAY MAY VARY. SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-013>016-
     024>027-033>037.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-
     013>016-024>027-033>037.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-
     087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ


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