Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 231739
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1239 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND PASSES
WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON
MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED TODAYS FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND
HI RES MODELS TO NARROW DOWN POPS. ALSO RAISED HIGHS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST. NEAR TERM HI-RES MODELS ALL SHOW LOW 70S FOR
WESTERN HALF OF CWA...DID NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT DID GIVE
HIGHS A GOOD BOOST WITH WAA EXPECTED. THESE SAME HI RES MODELS
DID VERY WELL YESTERDAY CATCHING THE HIGHS THAT BLEW PAST PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT ECHOES ON RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER
OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO BKW AT SOME POINT. GUSTY SE FLOW TODAY. AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...WILL HAVE MVFR IN SHOWERS CROSSING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COULD HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR WITH
THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ON EASTERN SLOPES...OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. REMAINING
RATHER BREEZY OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...WITH
EVEN STRONGER WINDS...TURNING S TO SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VIS LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY. COULD GET BRIEF IFR IN RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ







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