Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 221030
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
625 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL
DOWNPOURS...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE SE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO
NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE AT 625 AM...THOUGHT FOR A MOMEMT THERE MAY BE A GAP WITH NO
SHOWERS...BETWEEN THE LARGER CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING.
THEN NEW SMALL CELLS FORM VCNTY CRW ON INTO SE OHIO AROUND 10Z.
WILL BE A BIT FASTER BRINGING NEXT LKLY POP INTO SE OHIO THIS
MORNING.

THE REST IS FROM THE 415 AM DISCUSSION...

ENTERING INTO THE PEAK OF THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN - NOW INTO TONIGHT.

BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW AT 925 MB IS ONGOING WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT
UNDISTURBED FEED UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE WNW TO ESE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. 925 MB REDUCES TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 18Z TODAY.
SEVERAL SMALL MID LEVEL 500 MB VORT MAXIMUMS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
ONE PASSES CROSSES SRN WV MOUNTAINS AROUND 12Z. 07Z RAP HAS ANOTHER
ALONG INDIANA/OHIO BORDER BY THEN.  HOWEVER...EVEN AT 08Z...MORE
STORMS HAVE REACHED INTO WESTERN OHIO.  SO...DOING HOURLY POPS WAS
CERTAINLY A CHALLENGE ON THIS GRAVEYARD SHIFT.

EVEN THOUGH THE PKB-CKB AREA DID NOT GET MUCH RAIN ON
THURSDAY...MOST COUNTIES HAVE BEEN AFFECTED PAST WEEK. DID NOT WANT
TO OVER FORECAST WHERE EACH CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY GO AND TRY TO
NARROW DOWN THE WATCH. POSTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY.  STILL SEEMS THE HEART OF THE CWA MOST
VULNERABLE.  EVEN THE 07Z RAP HAS THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM PW FM NRN IL
ESE INTO CENTRAL WV AOA 2 INCHES.   HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS HAVE BEEN THE WETTEST LATELY AND WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
RUNOFF PERCENTAGE.

STEERING FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO PICTURING THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THE HIGHER POPS TO SINK INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT.  THOUGH AS MENTIONED...LOW LEVEL INFLOW...AS
MENTIONED...NOT AS STRONG.

IN THIS PATTERN...COULD EVEN SEE STRONG RISES ON SOME HEADWATER
RIVERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY CONTINUES SINKING SOUTH SATURDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE AROUND TO KICK OFF SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE COAL FIELDS AND WV MOUNTAINS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AS HEIGHTS BUILD
AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE NE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH...STILL EXPECTING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS HIGHS AND LOWS
BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO AREA BUT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
SHOULD STAY W OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL BE CONTENDING
WITH THE MUGGIES WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. A FRONT APPROACHES LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH 06Z TO 12Z WITH LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS AND IFR VSBY AND CEILING.  OTHER DISTURBANCES IN ITS WAKE
WILL RIDE SE AND MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS DURING THE
MORNING...FIGURING MORE IN SOUTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
FOR THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

CEILINGS BECOMING MAINLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN WITH LAYERS AND VSBY 5
TO 6 MILES IN HAZE AFTER ABOUT 16Z.  YET...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY...INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AGAIN WITH IFR
VSBY AND CEILINGS.

MVFR VSBY LIKELY 03Z TO 06Z SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS WANING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION AND TIMING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL
VARY. AT LEAST SOME AREAS OF PCPN MAY EVEN LINGER LONGER FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE 06Z TO AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.