Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 291028
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
628 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SFC BUT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS NORTHEAST TODAY. ITS EXODUS
WILL TAKE RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MILD TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S LOWLANDS...RANGING
TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING...AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW MBE VECTOR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND
SKINNY CAPE VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLY TRAINING CELLS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...AND DUE TO HEAVY RAIN RECEIVED THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IN SOME AREAS...WE CAN EXPECT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE TO BE
FAIRLY LOW AND ANY HEAVY RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME COULD CAUSE
ISSUES. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THR REGION. STILL EXPECTING A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE...AND ALSO SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS...SOME
STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE MAIN
CONCERN THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS
BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING.
THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK
NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD
SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE
THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY IFR/LIFR FOG CURRENTLY IN HTS...AND PKB WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z. SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN SLOPES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: END OF FOG COULD VARY THIS MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ


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