Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 062143
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
443 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After system departs tonight, high pressure will build for Wednesday.
A cold front crosses early Thursday. Much colder into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 430 PM Tuesday...
Lingering showers still apparent on radar giving light rain.
Temperatures at Snowshoe are hovering right at the freezing mark,
so continued the Freezing Rain Advisory there, but upped the
amounts to a 0.10" of additional accumulation expected this
evening given the heavier band of rain moving through the area.

Wide swath of clouds fills in behind the system for a damp night.

Conditions improve for Wednesday with the sun making a return by
the afternoon though temps will struggle to get to the mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Tuesday...

Main feature in the short term will the arrival of modified arctic
air. The models continue to waffle on the extent of development of
a mid level wave Thursday, with all showing little to no
development such that low pops currently may be able to be lowered
even more. Good CAA commences Thursday night with H85 temps
lowering into the -12 to -14C range. This combined with orographic
contributions should be able to squeeze out some mountain snow
showers and flurries elsewhere despite rather meager moisture
depth. This should continue for Friday as well though any lakes
contribution should stay north of the area. Only expecting some
minor accumulations in the mountains and perhaps a dusting here or
there in the lowlands. Elected to beef up the sky grid from what
the Blender provided as well as lowering highs from the Blender.
Think most if not all places will stay below freezing for highs. A
gusty WNW wind will bring some low wind chills especially in the
mountains. Snow showers and flurries will wane Friday night but
clouds should linger.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM Tuesday...

Increasingly milder air will filter into the area this weekend,
but still will be rather chilly on Saturday with sunshine finally
returning to the area. Milder air will work into the area in
earnest Sunday and Monday ahead of the next system with showers
and perhaps a mix at onset working in Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 430 PM Monday...

Generally VFR though expect a trend towards IFR as many non-TAF
sites are showing a 500-1000 ft cloud deck and models suggest a
lowering of cigs overnight as high pressure builds. Kept vsbys
relatively high.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated MVFR
to IFR conditions may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    H    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in possible snow showers Thursday through Thursday
night, mainly in the mountains,

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ523-
     526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/30
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JW



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