Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 241924
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
324 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through early next week with dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Cold front Wednesday
night/Thursday. Secondary cold front early weekend time frame.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM Sunday...

A persistent high pressure will continue to provide dry
conditions with warm afternoon and cool nights through the
period.

Near calm winds and clear skies could produce river valley fog
during the predawn hours Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 PM Sunday...

No significant changes to the forecast.

As of 240 AM Sunday...

No changes to the synoptic setup through the middle of next
week. Upper ridging over the middle Ohio Valley into the
northeast drives the mainly clear conditions with above normal
temperatures. Maria will continue its slow trek northward off
the Outer Banks of North Carolina, potentially slinging high
level clouds into the mountains. No significant POPs expected in
the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 310 PM Sunday...

A cold front will drop through the region from the northwest to
start the period, though models remain consistent in bringing it
in mostly dry with only slight chance PoPs across the southern
WV and southwest VA mountains given more favorable upslope flow.
This is in response to a subtle shortwave embedded within an
increasingly amplified long-wave trough, with the larger trough
moving through over the weekend. Moisture availability is again
forecast to be scant with low level Great Lakes moisture
struggling to reach this area. Progressively cooler air settles
in behind the two cold fronts with weekend temperatures
currently forecast to be around 5 degrees F below average.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

High pressure provides widespread VFR mostly clear skies and
near calm wind through the period. The exception will be along
some river valleys that may experience IFR patchy fog. The
density of fog will depend on clear skies overnight.

Any IFR river valley fog dissipates 12-13Z Monday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing may vary from forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR/LIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...26/MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...ARJ



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