Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 300200
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1000 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold fronts cross Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure Thursday.
A low brings a front into the area Friday and Saturday.
Unsettled again next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1000 PM Monday...

Updated POPs to better reflect the isolated t-shower moving
through Perry County.

As of 240 PM Monday...

Cold front has passed the region and seeing some diurnal Cu
develop in the wake of the front this afternoon. Cloud cover
should dissipate after sunset this evening. Another cold front
will push through the region tomorrow, however the best dynamics
will be positioned to our north. Moisture will also be limited,
but we should see at least isolated to then scattered showers
by 18Z Tuesday. Expecting a boost to the shower activity with
orographic accent in the mountains, but still not confident in
how widepsread the coverage will be, so have capped the PoPs at
just Chance for now.

Low level flow increases out ahead of the front tonight and
there should be enough turbulent mixing within the boundary
layer to hinder fog development. However, across our eastern
zones the flow remains weak until later Tuesday morning and
there is a chance for some fog across the sheltered mountain
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Wednesday will start relatively dry with a cold front to our east.
However, diurnal heating with CAPE exceeding 1800 J/Kg, deep layered
shear exceeding 50 knots and pwats around 1.3 inches are enough
ingredients for Wednesday afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.

Weak high pressure brings drier conditions behind the front
Wednesday night and for the most part Thursday. A weak front
associated with a strong upper level low pressure system over
the Great Lakes region will bring low chance for precipitation
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Another, but weak cold front approaches from the north Friday into
Saturday with better chances for showers and thunderstorms. The
front is expected to stall across our area keeping the chances for
showers and storms through the end of the period. The GFS shows
strong upper waves with this front which could delay the timing of
the front and produce heavy weather Saturday and Saturday night.

Made minor adjustments to PoPs Friday and Saturday. Went with
the blend of models through the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 PM Monday...

Most locations should remain VFR through the TAF period. Do have
a weak cold front which should bring isolated to scattered
showers tonight into Monday. Should a heavier shower move across
a TAF site MVFR to brief IFR may be possible but hard to time at
this point. Like previous shift, somewhat uncertain on fog
potential at EKN. LAMP is really the only guidance showing fog,
but think it could be on to something. So included dense valley
fog during the pre- dawn Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium confidence at EKN with possible fog,
High confidence elsewhere.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Valley fog may not develop at EKN
overnight. May have brief restrictions in passing showers
Tuesday, mainly across the east.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 05/30/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday,
and maybe in fog Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.