Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 301423
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1023 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts through today, followed by a cold front
tonight into Friday. High pressure Sunday. Next system Monday
or Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Thursday...

Have made some tweaks to the grids to reflect the current area
of showers and storms that are pushing northeast across the
region. In addition, temperatures across our VA and WV counties
have warmed up much faster than forecasted and hourly
temperatures have been updated to reflect this trend. End result
is that highs today may be a few degrees higher than previously
forecasted.

As of 630 AM Thursday...

High clouds will be on the increase early today as a surface low
and closed 500mb low cross the Central Plains. This will lift a
warm front through, with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible along the Ohio River and into
north-central WV. With SE flow at the surface, think precip
will have a hard time moving into the typical downslope zone
along I-79 from Charleston to Clarksburg. However the SE flow
could drive some light rain along the eastern slopes and
Appalachian ridge.

Precip will rapidly increase tonight as the surface low crosses
northern IN with a cold front pushing in from the west. This
will likely be the remnants of the strong to severe
thunderstorms expected in the Lower Ohio River Valley today. It
will be coming through overnight, a poor time for sustained
strong convection. However, should a good cold pool driven
convective complex already be ongoing, there is enough CAPE
(200-400J/kg) and shear (40-50kts) to keep a somewhat organized
line going as it moves in from the west with a potential for
damaging winds and some hail.

PWAT values of 1.0-1.3" indicate the potential of heavy rain.
Basin averages should be in the 0.25-0.5" range, but of course
there could be locally higher amounts which could approach an
inch. With current 3 hour flash flood guidance of around 1.5-2"
we should be able to avoid any significant water issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

A strong system exits the area Friday though not before
squeezing out at least a 1/2" of QPE area wide. A few wrap
around showers linger into Saturday. Otherwise high pressure
builds through Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

The next system approaches Monday and crosses late Monday night
into Tuesday. High pressure builds again Wednesday. The active
weather pattern continues with no end in sight. A little
hesitant to add details as run to run consistency is poor on
low pressure tracks, but good on general pattern recognition.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM Thursday...

VFR expected today, with clouds on the increase. An isolated to
scattered t-shower is possible along the Ohio River and across
the eastern slopes, which could lead to restrictions but
confidence not high enough to mention at any TAF site. More
widespread rain will begin moving in late tonight with MVFR to
IFR visibilities likely. Wind will generally be SE to S through
the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Could get some MVFR to IFR in t-showers
today. Timing of showers and storms tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms into Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JSH/MZ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ


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