Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 310012
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
712 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN AND LIMITED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
REDUCED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AS FLURRIES AS WELL. HAVE RATHER GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA IN THE CAA BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT WHICH CROSSED THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT. HAVE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF AROUND -5...AND EVEN A TOUCH LOWER ON HIGHER PEAKS.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FOR SATURDAY. WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS...BUT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP EASE
THE CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION. GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO TAKE THE TRACK OF THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN
A COLDER SOLUN THAN NAM OR CANADIAN. WITH THE OVERALL TREND TOWARDS
WARMER SOLUTION...LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THAN GFS
TEMPERATURE WISE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS...WITH THE LOW PATH THROUGH
OHIO...WILL RESULT IN WARM WEDGE EFFECTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WV AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO LOWLANDS...THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY NORTHERN BORDERS OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ALONG WITH MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A DECENT QPF EVENT...WITH STRONG LLJ
DEVELOPING...AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION. GENERALLY
HAVE 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES QPF FIGURED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...WITH 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY
MIX...THEN ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY/NON
DIURNAL.

AT THIS POINT...TAKING THE NORTHERLY TRACK/WARMER SOLUTION INTO
ACCOUNT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PERRY AND
MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO...IN EFFECT FROM 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 6 ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY...WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 8 ACROSS PERRY. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ATHENS AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT IS ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...AND NOT COUNTY
WIDE. HOWEVER...IT IS LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND SOME
ADJACENT WV COUNTIES WILL AT LEAST SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHICH
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...AND ISSUED IN LATER SHIFTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE MVFR STRATOCU AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW BY SAT MORNING.  THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR TO HIGH IFR VSBY AT EKN DURING THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FCST.  MVFR STRATOCU THERE SHOULD BREAK UP
BY ABOUT 06Z.  BKW MAY ALSO SEE MVFR STRATOCU THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AN MVFR DAY ON SAT.

GUSTY NW SFC FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
SAT MORNING.  OTHERWISE LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO SW
THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SAT AFTERNOON.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TEMPO IFR SNOW FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF FCST AT
EKN MAY NOT HAPPEN.  TIMING OF MVFR STRATOCU OVERNIGHT MAY VARY.
GUSTY WINDS MAY COME AND GO OVERNIGHT.  THE MORNING CU EFFECT MAY
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AFTER DAYBREAK SAT...MAINLY N.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SAT
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN AND SUN NT IN SE OHIO AND THE
NRN WV MOUNTAINS...SPREADING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM





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