Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 261509
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1009 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
SNOWFALL RATES ARE INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME
SITES REPORTING OVER 6 INCHES AT THIS POINT IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.
STARTING TO LOSE THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
WHILE RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION LINE MOVING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME
TIME...WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL IN THE KANAWHA VALLEY
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DESPITE THE HIGHER EXTREMES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CURRENT FORECAST IS
HOLDING UP FAIRLY WELL. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL WV TODAY. REPORTS OF
SNOW OR RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS WRFNMM...WRFARW...AND RUC13. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO HAVE A GOOD TIMING AS SEEN IN QPF
FIELDS.

A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING.
EVENTUALLY...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING BEFORE
EXITING NORTHEAST BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON.

OMEGA VALUES OF 15-20 MICRO BARS PER SECOND WITHIN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BURST OF SNOW
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
EAST. MINOR OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT WEST
INTO THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. BLENDED
THEM WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MET NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIR MASS COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM STREAMS THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SOUTHERN WV WHERE THEY MAY GET AN INCH.

LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW DAYS
AFTERWARDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST WESTERN SITES TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN SITES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO AFFECT BKW AND CRW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    M    M    L    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ







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