Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 250548
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
148 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES PER LATEST TRENDS...BUT GENERAL
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. PRECIP CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND
MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AROUND THE
09Z TIME FRAME.

1030 PM UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
FRI...OTHERWISE FCST IS ON TRACK. ALSO INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDER WITH TWO OPPORTUNITIES...ONE IN EARLY MORNING THETA E
ADVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE...IF NOT LIKELIHOOD...IN THE
AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO HAVE STRONGER
ENVIRONMENTAL WIND GUSTS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NT...UPPER 20S
KTS.

8 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED ONSET OF SHOWERS IN THE W UNTIL AFTER 06Z BASED ON LATEST
MODEL TIMING INCLUDING THE NEAR TERMS.  FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOME...WHICH HAS REALLY MIXED OUT THE MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS. AREA OF HIGH
LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS DRIFTING NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IOWA APPROACHES
TONIGHT...AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ERIE FRIDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSING CWA. HAVE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY AS WELL...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN...OR AT
LEAST MAINTAIN...THE SURFACE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH A BIT STRONGER
SURFACE LOW AND HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND INCREASED POPS. ALSO ADDED
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDER
ANTICIPATING SOMETHING MUCH LIKE THE FRONT EARLIER THIS WEEK WITH
A CELL OR TWO THAT LIGHTS UP.

BLENDED WARMER MET INTO LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL A TOUCH
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO TRENDED A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE EXITING EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ENDING BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY AND WEAKER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING JUST MAINLY CLOUDS DUE TO A
LACK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM THAT EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY
AGAIN IN THE 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST...ALLOWING FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH WARMER...AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WIND UP ACROSS OHIO BY TUESDAY. WITH THE
WARM...UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. PW VALUES BY TUESDAY WILL RISE TO AROUND 1.4
INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MAY
GET SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.

REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL...AND
UNSETTLED...AS UPPER LOW FORMS ACROSS AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IN A REX BLOCK TYPE PATTERN. INCREASED POPS
ACROSS CWA FOR THE PERIOD...AND TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN...SEVERAL
INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT
ANY POTENTIAL FOR WATER ISSUES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
INSTEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH FRI BRINGING MVFR IN SHOWERS...WITH A COUPLE OF
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST IN THE MORNING...THEN WITH
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF CROSSING DURING THE AFTERNOON CREATING A
SECOND...BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SCATTERING OF LOW DECK WILL TAKE PLACE WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD...06Z SAT. POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR STRATUS FORMING POST-FRONT MAINLY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AROUND THE 22Z-03Z TIME FRAME BEFORE BEGINNING TO SCATTER TOWARDS
THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD...BUT CONTINUED LOW MVFR CIGS FOR NOW.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES WITH SHOWERS
MAY VARY...AS MAY THE GUSTY WINDS FRI.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 04/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ/50
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...50








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