Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
000
FXXX10 KWNP 270031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Aug 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 27-Aug 29 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 27-Aug 29 2014

            Aug 27     Aug 28     Aug 29
00-03UT        4          4          2
03-06UT        4          3          2
06-09UT        5 (G1)     3          2
09-12UT        4          3          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        3          3          2

Rationale: There is a chance for a minor geomagnetic storm (NOAA Scale
G1) for day one (27 Aug) in response to anticipated CME effects from the
pair of CMEs on 22 Aug. CME effects are expected to wane on day two (28
Aug), replaced by the arrival of a positive polarity CH/HSS. Enhanced
field activity is expected for days two and three (29 Aug), but
conditions are expected to be below the G1 minor threshold.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 27-Aug 29 2014

              Aug 27  Aug 28  Aug 29
S1 or greater   10%     10%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 27-Aug 29 2014

              Aug 27        Aug 28        Aug 29
R1-R2           40%           40%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            1%

Rationale: Although there is a general trend of decay noted among the
regions on the visible disk, a chance for R1 - minor radio blackouts
persists for days one through three (27-29 Aug), mostly due to Region
2146.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.