Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 231231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Apr 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 23-Apr 25 2017 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 23-Apr 25 2017

            Apr 23     Apr 24     Apr 25
00-03UT        4          5 (G1)     5 (G1)
03-06UT        4          4          4
06-09UT        6 (G2)     4          4
09-12UT        5 (G1)     4          3
12-15UT        6 (G2)     4          3
15-18UT        4          4          3
18-21UT        5 (G1)     4          3
21-00UT        4          4          4

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected on Apr
23 with G1 (Minor) storms likely on Apr 24 and 25 due to the continued
influence of a coronal hole high speed stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 23-Apr 25 2017

              Apr 23  Apr 24  Apr 25
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 23-Apr 25 2017

              Apr 23        Apr 24        Apr 25
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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