Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
000
FXXX10 KWNP 201231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Sep 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 20-Sep 22 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 20-Sep 22 2014

            Sep 20     Sep 21     Sep 22
00-03UT        2          2          2
03-06UT        2          1          1
06-09UT        1          1          1
09-12UT        1          1          1
12-15UT        2          1          1
15-18UT        2          1          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        3          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 20-Sep 22 2014

              Sep 20  Sep 21  Sep 22
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 20-Sep 22 2014

              Sep 20        Sep 21        Sep 22
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for (R1-Minor) radio blackouts for
the next three days (20-22 Sep).


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.