Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 230031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Nov 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 23-Nov 25 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 23-Nov 25 2014

            Nov 23     Nov 24     Nov 25
00-03UT        3          3          2
03-06UT        2          2          1
06-09UT        2          2          1
09-12UT        2          2          1
12-15UT        2          2          1
15-18UT        2          2          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        3          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 23-Nov 25 2014

              Nov 23  Nov 24  Nov 25
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
enhancement at or above the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold
over the next three days due to potential significant flare activity
from Regions 2209 and 2216.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 23-Nov 25 2014

              Nov 23        Nov 24        Nov 25
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) radio blackout activity is likely
with a chance for an (R3/Strong or greater) radio blackout for the
forecast period (23-25 Nov). Regions 2209 and 2216 continue to be the
most likely sources for significant flare production.


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