Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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AXUS74 KHUN 181502
DGTHUN
ALC033-043-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-TNC051-103-127-201515-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1002 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY STABLE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
ONLY MINOR DEGRADATIONS MADE SINCE LAST WEEK...

SYNOPSIS:
ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR VALID TUESDAY...AUGUST 16TH
2016...DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAINED LARGELY THE SAME FROM LAST WEEK
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MORGAN...SOUTHEASTERN
MADISON...AND NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...WHERE CONDITIONS WERE
DOWNGRADED FROM D1 TO D2. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
LAUDERDALE/COLBERT/ FRANKLIN HAVE RETAINED D0 TO D2 DROUGHT
DESIGNATIONS. FAR EASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY REMAINS IN D0 TO D1
CONDITIONS...WITH FAR EASTERN LAUDERDALE INCLUDED IN D0 AS WELL.
NOTABLY...THE EXTREME DROUGHT /D3/ CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
JACKSON COUNTY...PARTS OF NORTHERN DEKALB COUNTY...AND A SMALL AREA
OF WESTERN MADISON AND FAR EASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY. SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS UNCHANGED. EXTREME DROUGHT /D3/ CONDITIONS
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO D0 CONDITIONS IN FAR WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS:
STATE AND LOCAL DECLARATIONS: THE ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND
COMMUNITY AFFAIRS (ADECA) OFFICE OF WATER RESOURCES CURRENTLY HAS ALL
OF OUR COUNTIES IN A `DROUGHT WARNING`...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CULLMAN COUNTY...WHICH IS IN A `DROUGHT WATCH`. PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS
AND OTHER PRIVATE WATER USERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT DROUGHT CONSERVATION PLANS.
THE ALABAMA OFFICE OF WATER RESOURCES WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATED NOTIFICATIONS AS NEEDED.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS:
PER THE LATEST CROP AND PROGRESS CONDITION REPORT FROM THE USDA
NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE...THE AGRICULTURAL
EXTENSION AGENT IN MADISON COUNTY REPORTS THAT THE COTTON CROP IS
SUFFERING RECENTLY DUE TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE LIMESTONE
COUNTY FSA ALSO REPORTS THAT LIVESTOCK AND CROPS ARE SUFFERING IN
SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTY DUE TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

IN TENNESSEE...THE USDA FARM SERVICE AGENT IN MOORE COUNTY REPORTS
DRY CONDITIONS RECENTLY AND THAT CROPS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
SUFFERING. THE FSA IN FRANKLIN COUNTY REPORTS THAT IN PARTS OF THE
COUNTY THAT ARE LACKING IN RAINFALL...FARMERS ARE NOW HAVING TO FEED
HAY TO CATTLE.

COUNTIES IN EXTREME DROUGHT /D3/ FOR ANY PORTION OF TIME
AUTOMATICALLY QUALIFY FOR U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA)
PRIMARY NATURAL DISASTER STATUS. AS OF JULY 22ND...THE USDA
HAD OFFICIALLY DESIGNATED DEKALB...JACKSON...LIMESTONE...MARSHALL
AND MADISON COUNTIES AS PRIMARY NATURAL DISASTER AREAS DUE TO
DAMAGES AND LOSSES CAUSED BY THE RECENT DROUGHT. IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...FRANKLIN AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ARE ALSO INCLUDED. PER THE
USDA...THE CONTIGUOUS COUNTIES OF CULLMAN...LAWRENCE AND MOORE ARE
ALSO INCLUDED IN THE DISASTER DECLARATION. ANY FURTHER NATURAL
DISASTER DECLARATIONS PERTAINING TO DROUGHT WILL BE UPDATED IN THE
NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT ISSUANCE NEXT WEEK.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS:
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION FIRE ALERTS OR
DROUGHT EMERGENCIES ISSUED. STATE FORESTER GREG PATE IS STILL URGING
EVERYONE TO USE ALL NECESSARY SAFETY PRECAUTIONS WHEN DOING ANY TYPE
OF OUTDOOR BURNING. TO OBTAIN A BURN PERMIT...CONTACT THE ALABAMA
FORESTRY COMMISSION DISPATCH CENTER FOR YOUR COUNTY. LOCAL COUNTY
AND CITY LAWS MAY RESTRICT OUTDOOR BURNING HOWEVER...SO BURNERS ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTACTING THEIR LOCAL GOVERNMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

THE TENNESSEE DIVISION OF FORESTRY HAS NO CURRENT BURN RESTRICTIONS
IN PLACE AND BURN PERMITS ARE CURRENTLY NOT REQUIRED BY THE
DIVISION. HOWEVER...BURNERS ARE URGED TO CHECK FOR ANY LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS PRIOR TO CONDUCTING BURNING ACTIVITY.

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) AVAILABLE FROM THE U.S. FOREST
SERVICE WILDLAND FIRE ASSESSMENT SYSTEM INDICATES VALUES BETWEEN 600
TO 700 ACROSS MUCH OF JACKSON...DEKALB...AND PARTS OF
MARSHALL AND MADISON COUNTIES...AND FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE.
VALUES ELSEWHERE GENERALLY RANGE FROM 500 TO 600. VALUES IN EXCESS OF
600 ARE OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
INTENSE...DEEP BURNING FIRES WITH SIGNIFICANT DOWNWIND SPOTTING...AND
BURNING OF LIVE FUELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH KBDI VALUES ABOVE 600.

CLIMATE SUMMARY:
OVER THE LAST SEVEN DAYS...TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIPITATION HAS AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS IN EXTREME NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY TENNESSEE...WHERE UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL OCCURRED THIS PAST WEEK. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL OCCURRED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SPECIFICALLY...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN (TN)...CENTRAL JACKSON...CENTRAL
MARSHALL...AND SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTY.

DURING THE SPRING AND INTO SUMMER /MARCH TO MID AUGUST/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IN HUNTSVILLE AND
MUSCLE SHOALS...THIS PERIOD IS THE SECOND WARMEST SUCH PERIOD ON
RECORD. AT SCOTTSBORO...THIS RANKS AS THE SEVENTH WARMEST.

THE SCOTTSBORO COOP SITE AT RADIO STATION WWIC IN DOWNTOWN
SCOTTSBORO IS 9.52 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE YEAR...AND OVER THE
LAST 3 MONTHS IS 5.73 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE SECOND
DRIEST PERIOD SINCE EARLY MARCH...AND IT IS THE FIFTH DRIEST YEAR SO
FAR ON RECORD. THE VALLEY HEAD COOP SITE IS 10.35 INCHES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE YEAR...AND 5.44 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST THREE
MONTHS.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK:
HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
DURING THE NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING LESS HUMID AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE RAINFALL IN THE AREA...AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MORNING LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

THE OUTLOOK FOR WEEK TWO /AUG 25TH - AUG 31ST/ FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER SLIGHTLY FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION. THE OUTLOOK FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE LATEST SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID FROM JULY 21ST TO NOVEMBER
30TH INDICATES THAT DROUGHT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AREA RIVER AND CREEK STREAMFLOWS VARY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA BETWEEN THE 10TH AND
20TH PERCENTILE...WHEREAS LOCATIONS IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA HAVE
SURPASSED THE 30TH PERCENTILE RANGE. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL TO
RAINFALL RECEIVED OVER THE PAST SEVEN DAYS.

LAKE LEVELS HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNAFFECTED BY THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
SO FAR...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. LAKES WITHIN THE HEAVILY REGULATED
TENNESSEE RIVER SYSTEM ARE OPERATING WITHIN NORMAL POOL LEVELS.
LITTLE BEAR CREEK IS OPERATING BELOW THE NORMAL GUIDE CURVE AND HAS
FALLEN TO THE LOW NOTCH IN RECENT WEEKS. PICKWICK LAKE IS OPERATING
AT THE LOW END OF THE OPERATING ZONE. ALABAMA POWER REPORTS THAT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE HAVING AN IMPACT ON SOME LAKE LEVELS UNDER THEIR
CONTROL...INCLUDING LEWIS SMITH LAKE. THE LAKE IS OPERATING BELOW
ITS NORMAL GUIDE CURVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO FALL WITHOUT THE NECESSARY RAINFALL TO MAINTAIN NORMAL
POOL.

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE LATEST DAILY SOIL
MOISTURE RANKINGS AS OF AUGUST 17TH INDICATED SOIL MOISTURE
PERCENTILES IN THE 5-10TH PERCENTILES IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
ALABAMA...TO THE 20-30TH PERCENTILES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ALABAMA...VALUES ARE ABOVE THE 30TH PERCENTILE AND CONSIDERED CLOSER
TO NORMAL.

THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY GROUNDWATER WELL SITES IN LAWRENCE AND
CULLMAN COUNTIES INDICATE THAT GROUNDWATER LEVELS FELL BELOW THE
DAILY MEDIAN VALUE DURING THE MARCH TO LATE APRIL PERIOD AND HAVE
SINCE REMAINED BELOW NORMAL SINCE THAT TIME. GROUNDWATER LEVELS AT
THE WELL SITE IN CULLMAN CONTINUE TO SHOW GRADUAL DECLINES AND BELOW
NORMAL VALUES...BUT DECLINES IN GROUNDWATER LEVELS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE TYPICAL. GROUNDWATER LEVELS AT THE WELL IN LAWRENCE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN FLUCTUATING SINCE LATE MAY...WITH A GRADUAL DECLINE NOTED SINCE
LAST WEEK. THE GROUNDWATER WELL SITES IN JACKSON AND MADISON
COUNTIES OPERATED BY THE ALABAMA GEOLOGICAL SURVEY SHOW GROUNDWATER
LEVELS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH VALUES HAVING
FALLEN MARKEDLY SINCE LATE APRIL. IT IS COMMON THAT WATER LEVELS IN
THESE WELL SITES FALL FROM SPRING INTO SUMMER.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOWS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IS FOR SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD RAINS THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DECREASES IN SOIL MOISTURE AND
STREAMFLOWS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE:
THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED NEXT THURSDAY...AUGUST
25TH.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
/USE LOWER CASE/

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR WEB PAGE...HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

FOR MORE DROUGHT INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE. THERE YOU CAN FIND MORE DROUGHT
RELATED INFORMATION BY CLICKING ON THE DROUGHT LINK NEAR THE BOTTOM
OF THE PAGE.

FOR INFORMATION ABOUT ALABAMA DROUGHT DECLARATIONS...VISIT
HTTP://WWW.ADECA.ALABAMA.GOV/DIVISIONS/OWR/PAGES/DEFAULT.ASPX

FOR INFORMATION FROM THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION...VISIT
HTTP://FORESTRY.ALABAMA.GOV/

RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM...
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

STREAMFLOWS ARE OBTAINED FROM THE USGS AT...
HTTP://WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV/INDEX.PHP

LAKE LEVELS FOR THE TENNESSEE RIVER LAKES CAN BE OBTAINED FROM
HTTP://WWW.TVA.COM/LAKEINFO/

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

SOME DATA USED IN THIS STATEMENT WERE PROVIDED BY THE U.S.
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...AND THE STATES OF ALABAMA AND
TENNESSEE.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ON THE DROUGHT...CONTACT:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE
320A SPARKMAN DRIVE
HUNTSVILLE AL 35805
PHONE: 256-890-8503
SR-HUN.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

WHITE/AMIN



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