Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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AXUS74 KHUN 281545
DGTHUN
ALC033-043-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-TNC051-103-127-301545-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1045 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
BUT EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...

SYNOPSIS:
ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR VALID TUESDAY...JULY 26TH
2016...SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE THE AREA OF EXTREME
DROUGHT /D3/ OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. D3 WAS SCALED BACK TO D2 OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY...AND WESTERN JACKSON
COUNTY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WORSENED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
MADISON COUNTY (AND EXTREME EAST-CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY). OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND DEKALB COUNTIES...CONDITIONS
IMPROVED FROM D3 TO D2. ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA STATE
LINE...DROUGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATED...WITH EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF LAUDERDALE...COLBERT...AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES LISTED AS
D2. EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN COUNTIES ARE ALSO NOW
LISTED AS D3. OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA REMAIN IN D0 TO
D1. IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...A SLIGHT RETREAT OF D3 CONDITIONS
FROM LINCOLN COUNTY WERE MADE WITH THE MOST RECENT DROUGHT
MONITOR...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS IN FRANKLIN AND MOORE COUNTIES REMAIN
UNCHANGED.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS:
STATE AND LOCAL DECLARATIONS: THE ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND
COMMUNITY AFFAIRS (ADECA) OFFICE OF WATER RESOURCES CURRENTLY HAS
ALL OF OUR COUNTIES IN A `DROUGHT WARNING`...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CULLMAN COUNTY...WHICH IS IN A `DROUGHT WATCH`. PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS
AND OTHER PRIVATE WATER USERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT DROUGHT CONSERVATION PLANS.
THE ALABAMA OFFICE OF WATER RESOURCES WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE UPDATED NOTIFICATIONS AS NEEDED.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS:
PER THE LATEST CROP AND PROGRESS CONDITION REPORT FROM THE USDA
NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE...AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION
AGENTS IN MARSHALL COUNTY SAY THAT COTTON...SOYBEAN...AND PASTURES
HAVE GREENED UP FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL IN THAT REGION.
HOWEVER...FOR SOME CROPS LIKE CORN...THE RAIN CAME TOO LATE TO
REVERSE THE CROP LOSS. AGRICULTURAL REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE GROWING SEASON HAVE INDICATED THAT CORN HAS SUFFERED THE GREATEST
DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FRANKLIN COUNTY FARM SERVICE AGENCY /FSA/ IN TENNESSEE REPORTED
THAT EXTREME HEAT WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL FOR THE WEEK DOMINATED
THE WEATHER PATTERN. CROPS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY ARE
FARING FAIRLY WELL...BUT THE EASTERN HALF HAS BEEN LESS FORTUNATE
WITH RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...WITH SEVERAL AREAS SHOWING DROUGHT
STRESS.

COUNTIES THAT ARE IN EXTREME DROUGHT /D3/ AUTOMATICALLY QUALIFY FOR
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA) PRIMARY NATURAL DISASTER
STATUS. AS OF JULY 13TH...THE USDA OFFICIALLY DESIGNATED
JACKSON...DEKALB...MARSHALL AND MADISON COUNTIES AS PRIMARY NATURAL
DISASTER AREAS DUE TO DAMAGES AND LOSSES CAUSED BY THE RECENT
DROUGHT. IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...FRANKLIN AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES ARE ALSO INCLUDED. PER THE USDA...THE CONTIGUOUS COUNTIES
OF MOORE...LIMESTONE...MORGAN...AND CULLMAN ARE ALSO INCLUDED IN THE
DISASTER DECLARATION. ANY FURTHER NATURAL DISASTER DECLARATIONS
PERTAINING TO DROUGHT WILL BE UPDATED IN THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT
ISSUANCE NEXT WEEK.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS:
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION FIRE ALERTS OR
DROUGHT EMERGENCIES ISSUED. STATE FORESTER GREG PATE IS STILL URGING
EVERYONE TO USE ALL NECESSARY SAFETY PRECAUTIONS WHEN DOING ANY TYPE
OF OUTDOOR BURNING. TO OBTAIN A BURN PERMIT...CONTACT THE ALABAMA
FORESTRY COMMISSION DISPATCH CENTER FOR YOUR COUNTY. LOCAL COUNTY
AND CITY LAWS MAY RESTRICT OUTDOOR BURNING HOWEVER...SO BURNERS ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTACTING THEIR LOCAL GOVERNMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

THE TENNESSEE DIVISION OF FORESTRY HAS NO CURRENT BURN RESTRICTIONS
IN PLACE AND BURN PERMITS ARE CURRENTLY NOT REQUIRED BY THE
DIVISION. HOWEVER...BURNERS ARE URGED TO CHECK FOR ANY LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS PRIOR TO CONDUCTING BURNING ACTIVITY.

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) AVAILABLE FROM THE U.S. FOREST
SERVICE WILDLAND FIRE ASSESSMENT SYSTEM INDICATES VALUES ARE AROUND
500 TO 600 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCATIONS IN LAWRENCE COUNTY
/INCLUDING THE BANKHEAD NATIONAL FOREST/ AND FRANKLIN COUNTY
ALABAMA HAVE VALUES BETWEEN 600 AND 700. VALUES IN EXCESS OF 600 ARE
OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. INTENSE...DEEP
BURNING FIRES WITH SIGNIFICANT DOWNWIND SPOTTING...AND BURNING OF
LIVE FUELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH KBDI VALUES ABOVE 600.

CLIMATE SUMMARY:
OVER THE LAST WEEK...RAINFALL HAS BEEN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER...A SWATH OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OCCURRED IN MARSHALL
AND DEKALB COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...LOCATIONS IN NORTHWESTERN
LIMESTONE...NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHEASTERN MADISON...AND
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST WEEK HAVE AVERAGED ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SO FAR FOR THE MONTH OF JULY...THIS RANKS AS THE SECOND WARMEST JULY
ON RECORD AT HUNTSVILLE. AT MUSCLE SHOALS...THIS RANKS AS THE SEVENTH
WARMEST. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED AMPLE RAINFALL WHILE OTHERS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY DRY GIVEN THE SPOTTY COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
OVERALL...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRIEST IN JACKSON COUNTY...PARTS OF
MADISON COUNTY...PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND ALSO
FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE.

DURING THE SPRING AND INTO EARLY SUMMER...TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IN HUNTSVILLE...THIS PERIOD IS THE THIRD WARMEST
SUCH PERIOD ON RECORD. IT IS ALSO THIRD WARMEST PERIOD AT MUSCLE
SHOALS.

THE SCOTTSBORO COOP SITE AT WWIC IN DOWNTOWN SCOTTSBORO IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORST DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION...AND HAVE ONLY
RECORDED 11.69 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE MARCH 1ST. NORMAL RAINFALL
FROM MARCH 1ST THROUGH JULY 27TH IS 22.77 INCHES. THIS IS CURRENTLY
DRIER THAN THE SAME NEARLY 5-MONTH TIME PERIOD IN 2007.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK:
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL AGAIN SHIFT EASTWARD BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...LESSENING THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE MID
AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

THE OUTLOOK FOR WEEK TWO /AUG 4TH - AUG 10TH/ FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. THE
OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES....WITH EQUAL
CHANCES FOR BELOW, NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE LATEST SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID FROM JULY 21ST TO OCTOBER
31ST INDICATES THAT DROUGHT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS THAT RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FROM THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE PAST WEEK ROSE TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE THAT
TIME...HOWEVER...THE DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE CAUSED RIVER AND CREEK
LEVELS TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SEVEN-DAY STREAMFLOW AVERAGES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS (AGAIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
WEEK). SEVERAL EXAMPLES ARE:

PAINT ROCK RIVER AT WOODVILLE (4TH PERCENTILE)
ELK RIVER AT FAYETTEVILLE (5TH PERCENTILE)
LIMESTONE CREEK AT CAPSHAW NEAR ATHENS (11TH PERCENTILE)
SIPSEY FORK IN THE BANKHEAD NATIONAL FOREST (22ND PERCENTILE)

LAKE LEVELS HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNAFFECTED BY THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
SO FAR...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. LAKES WITHIN THE HEAVILY REGULATED
TENNESSEE RIVER SYSTEM ARE OPERATING WITHIN NORMAL POOL LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH...TIMS FORD LAKE CONTINUES TO OPERATE BELOW THE NORMAL
GUIDECURVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE MINIMUM
RECREATION LEVEL. LITTLE BEAR CREEK IS OPERATING BELOW THE NORMAL
GUIDE CURVE AND HAS FALLEN TO THE LOW NOTCH IN RECENT WEEKS.
PICKWICK LAKE IS OPERATING AT THE LOW END OF THE OPERATING ZONE.
ALABAMA POWER REPORTS THAT DRY CONDITIONS ARE HAVING AN IMPACT ON
SOME LAKE LEVELS UNDER THEIR CONTROL...INCLUDING LEWIS SMITH LAKE.
THE LAKE IS OPERATING BELOW ITS NORMAL GUIDE CURVE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL WITHOUT THE NECESSARY
RAINFALL TO MAINTAIN NORMAL POOL.

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE LATEST DAILY SOIL
MOISTURE RANKINGS AS OF JULY 27TH RANGED MARKEDLY. IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ARE IN THE 1ST TO 5TH
PERCENTILES. IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...VALUES RANK ABOVE THE 30TH
PERCENTILE. IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...VALUES GENERALLY RANK
BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 30TH PERCENTILES.

THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY GROUNDWATER WELL SITES IN LAWRENCE AND
CULLMAN COUNTIES INDICATE THAT GROUNDWATER LEVELS FELL BELOW THE
DAILY MEDIAN VALUE DURING THE MARCH TO LATE APRIL PERIOD AND HAVE
SINCE REMAINED BELOW NORMAL SINCE THAT TIME. GROUNDWATER LEVELS AT
THE WELL SITE IN CULLMAN CONTINUE TO SHOW GRADUAL DECLINES AND BELOW
NORMAL VALUES...BUT DECLINES IN GROUNDWATER LEVELS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE TYPICAL. GROUNDWATER LEVELS AT THE WELL IN LAWRENCE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN FLUCTUATING SINCE LATE MAY...WITH A GRADUAL DECLINE IN VALUES
NOW NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH OR SO. THE GROUNDWATER WELL SITES IN
JACKSON AND MADISON COUNTIES OPERATED BY THE ALABAMA GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY SHOW GROUNDWATER LEVELS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH VALUES HAVING FALLEN MARKEDLY SINCE LATE APRIL.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOWS OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS
FOR LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LESSENING CHANCES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. STREAMFLOWS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE BRIEF/TEMPORARY RISES
AFTER SPOTTY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT THESE
EFFECTS ARE LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED SINCE THE LONGER-TERM
FAVORS A RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE:
THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED NEXT THURSDAY...AUGUST 4TH.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
/USE LOWER CASE/

FOR MORE DROUGHT INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE. THERE YOU CAN FIND MORE DROUGHT
RELATED INFORMATION BY CLICKING ON THE DROUGHT LINK NEAR THE BOTTOM
OF THE PAGE.

FOR INFORMATION ABOUT ALABAMA DROUGHT DECLARATIONS...VISIT
HTTP://WWW.ADECA.ALABAMA.GOV/DIVISIONS/OWR/PAGES/DEFAULT.ASPX

FOR INFORMATION FROM THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION...VISIT
HTTP://FORESTRY.ALABAMA.GOV/

RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM...
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

STREAMFLOWS ARE OBTAINED FROM THE USGS AT...
HTTP://WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV/INDEX.PHP

LAKE LEVELS FOR THE TENNESSEE RIVER LAKES CAN BE OBTAINED FROM
HTTP://WWW.TVA.COM/LAKEINFO/

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

SOME DATA USED IN THIS STATEMENT WERE PROVIDED BY THE U.S.
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...AND THE STATES OF ALABAMA AND
TENNESSEE.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ON THE DROUGHT...CONTACT:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE
320A SPARKMAN DRIVE
HUNTSVILLE AL 35805
PHONE: 256-890-8503
SR-HUN.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

WHITE/AMIN



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