Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service TULSA OK
139 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2017

...Extreme Drought continued across southeast Oklahoma and west
Central Arkansas..

Synopsis...

Drought conditions remained over most of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas due to both short- and long-term impacts.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor /USDM/ valid February 7,
2017, Extreme Drought /D3/ conditions were present over parts of
Pushmataha, Choctaw, Haskell, Latimer, Sequoyah, Le Flore,
Crawford, Sebastian, and Franklin Counties in southeast Oklahoma
through west central Arkansas.

Severe /D2/ Drought conditions encompass portions of Pawnee,
Creek, Tulsa, Rogers, Wagoner, Adair, Muskogee, Okfuskee,
Okmulgee, McIntosh, Pittsburg, Haskell, Sequoyah, Latimer, Le
Flore, Choctaw, and Pushmataha Counties in eastern Oklahoma, and
Washington, Madison, Sebastian, Crawford, and Franklin Counties
in west central Arkansas.

Moderate /D1/ Drought conditions cover portions of Osage,
Washington, Nowata, Rogers, Wagoner, Mayes, Delaware, Cherokee,
Adair, Muskogee, Okmulgee, Okfuskee, McIntosh, Pittsburg, Latimer,
Le Flore, and Pushmataha COunties in eastern Oklahoma and Benton,
Carroll, Washington, and Madison Counties in northwest Arkansas.

Abnormally Dry /D0/ but not experiencing drought conditions exist
over portions of Osage, Nowata, Delaware, Craig, and Ottawa
Counties in eastern Oklahoma and Benton and Carroll Counties in
northwest Arkansas.

The USDM is a collaborative effort between several government and
academic partners. It is a weekly national product issued on
Thursday morning using data collected through the previous Tuesday
morning, so it does not consider precipitation which has fallen
after the data cut-off time.

There are five levels of intensity depicted on the USDM. The USDM
levels are the following: D0 - Abnormally Dry (not in drought but
showing dryness) D1 - Moderate Drought D2 - Severe Drought D3 -
Extreme Drought D4 - Exceptional Drought

The local Drought Information Statement is issued by the NWS
office in Tulsa when needed to supplement the national USDM
product. Local statements may be issued by-weekly during times
when the USDM indicates severe drought conditions or as local
conditions warrant.


Summary of Impacts...
State and Local Actions: The Oklahoma State Climate Office
(Oklahoma Climatological Survey, OCS) hosts recorded briefings
focused on the current conditions, impacts, and outlooks for
drought conditions across the Southern Plains. Updated drought
briefings are available at www.youtube.com/user/SCIPP01

Soil Moisture Impact:
The OCS daily averaged fractional water index for February 9, 2017
shows values of 0.6 to 1.0 (where 1.0 is saturated and 0.0 is
completely dry) at 2, 4, and 10 inches below ground across eastern
Oklahoma. Deeper in the soil at 24 inches below ground, values
ranged from 0.1 to 0.4 over portions of Okfuskee, Okmulgee,
McIntosh, Pittsburg, and Le Flore Counties. Elsewhere, values were
0.6 to 1.0.

As of February 10, 2017, the Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast
Center (ABRFC) gridded soil moisture indicates that the upper
zone, which responds to short term rainfall, is 30 to greater than
40 percent full across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
This represents neutral conditions and corresponds to 50 to 100
percent of normal. Southeast Oklahoma was lowest at 50 to 70
percent of normal. The lower zone was 10 to greater than 40
percent full, representing moderate hydrologically dry to neutral
conditions. These lower zone anomalies were 90 to less than 30
percent of normal throughout the drought area of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas. A large portion of the region was 30 to 70
percent of normal.


The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calculated soil moisture
anomaly analysis as of February 9, 2017 showed soil moisture was
20-160 mm /0.79-6.3 inches below normal across eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas. The greatest deficits were located over
east central and southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas.

Fire Impacts:
County declared burn bans were in effect for Adair, Sequoyah,
McIntosh, Pittsburg, Haskell, Latimer, and Le Flore Counties in
eastern Oklahoma, and Benton, Washington, Madison, Crawford, and
Franklin Counties in northwest Arkansas. Several fires have been
reported in the last 24 hours, with multiple recent and ongoing
large fires in Le Flore, Pushmataha, and Haskell Counties. 100 and
1,000 hours fuels are critically dry and have contributed to
increasing fire intensity and longer duration fires. The National
Interagency Fire Center has issued a Fuels and Fire Behavior
Advisory February 1-14, 2017 for most of Oklahoma, prompted by the
Oklahoma Forestry Services. According to the Arkansas Forestry
Commission, wildfire danger was classified as High as of February
10, 2017.

Agriculture:
According to the USDA...17 percent of Oklahoma winter wheat was
rated poor/very poor (an increase of 5 percent since the end of
November). The winter wheat rated good/exceptional was 33 percent,
a large decrease of 20 percent since the end of November.


Climate Summary...

Over the past 7 days, only a few hundredths of an inch of rain has
fallen along and northwest of I-44, and 0.10 to around 0.50 inches
fell over far southeast Madison County.

In the last 30 days, rainfall totals have ranged from 1 to 4
inches, with the lowest totals over east central Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas.

According to OCS, for the last 30 days ending February 9, 2017,
northeast Oklahoma ranks as the 12th wettest period since records
began in 1921. East central Oklahoma ranks as the 44th wettest and
southeast Oklahoma ranks as the 39th driest. Since the beginning
of the Water Year (October 1, 2016), northeast Oklahoma ranks as
the 40th driest, east central Oklahoma ranks as the 10th driest,
and southeast Oklahoma ranks as the 6th driest.


Precipitation/Temperature Outlook...

In the next 7 days, rain is likely Monday night through Tuesday
night, with the highest chances across southeast Oklahoma. The
remainder of the next 7 days will be dry. Record breaking warmth
is expected tomorrow ahead of a cold front, which will bring near
normal temperatures to the area Sunday through the work week.

The CPC 8-14 Day Outlook calls for an increased chance for above
normal temperatures and a slightly increased chance for above
normal rainfall across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Beyond this period, the CPC outlook for February 2017 (issued
January 31, 2017) indicates an enhanced chance for above normal
temperatures and equal chances for above, near, and below median
rainfall across all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.


Hydrologic Summary And Outlook...

According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE), area
reservoirs were at or below the top of their conservation pools.
The following reservoirs were operating at more than 5 percent
below the conservation pool level as of February 10, 2017:
Heyburn Lake 44 percent, Eufaula Lake 72 percent, Beaver Lake 72
percent, Tenkiller Lake 73 percent, Birch Lake 86 percent, Hugo
Lake 87 percent, Skiatook Lake 87 percent, Copan Lake 93 percent,
and Wister Lake 94 percent.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the 7-day average
streamflow was below to much below normal across far eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas as of February 9, 2017. The
streamflow is the lowest value for the day of the year along the
James Fork near Hackett and the Kiamichi River near Clayton. Much
below normal conditions were occurring along the White River near
Fayetteville, Mulberry River near Mulberry, Lee Creek near Short,
and the Deep Fork near Beggs.


Next Issuance Date...

This product will be updated on March 10, 2017 or sooner if
significant changes in drought conditions occur.


Related Websites...

U.S. Drought Portal
http://www.drought.gov

U.S. Drought Monitor
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

National Weather Service Tulsa
http://www.weather.gov/tsa/drought_info
http://www.weather.gov/tulsa

Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center
http://weather.gov/abrfc/drought

Oklahoma Climatological Survey Drought Tools
http://climate.ok.gov/index.php/climate/category/drought_wildfire

Arkansas Forestry Commission
http://www.forestry.state.ar.us

Oklahoma Forestry Commission
http://www.dorestry.ok.gov

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Tulsa District
http://www.swt-wc.usace.army.mil

U.S. Geological Survey Realtime Data
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt

Climate Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov


Acknowledgments...

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a collaborative effort between
several government and academic partners including the NWS, the
National Climatic Data Center, the USDA, state and regional
climatologists, and the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA
observation sites, the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, the USACE
and the USGS.

Questions or Comments...

If you have any questions or comments about this drought
information statement, please contact,

National Weather Service Tulsa
10159 E. 11th St. Suite 300
Tulsa Oklahoma 74128
Phone:   918-838-7838
Email:   sr-tsa.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$



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