Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FGUS73 KBIS 292052
ESFBIS
FGUS73 KBIS 292020
ESFBIS
NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-
053-055-057-059-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-302200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
315 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016


...Flood and Water Resources Outlook...

This probabilistic Spring Flood and Water Resources outlook is for
the Missouri and James River basins of North Dakota and covers
the period of late July through late October.

The following message has four sections. The first provides some text
on the highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting the local
hydrology. The second section gives the current and normal/historical
risks of flooding as determined by the Ensemble Streamflow Forecast
model of the National Weather Service. The third section gives the
current probabilities for reaching flood stage at the listed forecast
locations. And finally, the fourth section covers the risk of the
river sites falling below the listed stages.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...
This outlook contains the probabilities for reaching flood stage
at the forecast points within the Missouri and James River basins
of North Dakota. Risk of widespread flooding this time of year is
as low as it gets during the open water season. Strong thunderstorms
and their associated heavy rains present the greatest threat of
high water going forth, but the region begins to exit the thunderstorm
season in mid August and risks continue to fall with each passing
week.

...Current Conditions...
Despite recent widespread and sometimes heavy rains, rivers continue
to be near normal for this time of year. However, recent rains have
kept or raised soil moisture levels seasonally normal to above normal,
but not excessively wet for this time of year. There is nothing in the
current hydrologic conditions that warrants increased awareness when it
comes to enhanced flood risk.

...Weather Outlook...
July has been fairly normal with widespread thunderstorms and rain
showers highlighting the weather pattern. Looking forward, the nearer
term 6 - 10 outlook is for near normal temperatures and below
normal chances of precipitation with the 8 - 14 day outlooks calling
for above normal temperatures and near normal chances of rain. The
longer one-month outlooks suggests a near normal temperature range
with a slightly above normal chance of rain while the three-month
outlooks reflect a warmer than normal signal and above normal
precipitation.


In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


                 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                     VALID PERIOD:  07/30/2016  - 10/28/2016

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree             11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:James River
Grace City          12.0   14.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lamoure             14.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cannonball River
Regent              22.0   24.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cannonball River
Breien              10.0   20.0   23.0 :  13   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
Linton              12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Muddy River
Williston           10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Missouri
Marmarth            18.0   23.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Missouri River
Medora              15.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Watford City        20.0   24.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Knife River
Manning             15.0   17.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Spring Creek
Zap                 14.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Knife River
Hazen               21.0   24.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Heart River
Mandan              17.0   23.0   28.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Apple Creek
Menoken             15.0   16.0   17.0 :  12   27    8   21   <5    7

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                         VALID PERIOD:  07/30/2016  - 10/28/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree               5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.3    6.1
:James River
Grace City            4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.7    5.5    6.3
Lamoure               7.8    7.8    7.8    7.8    7.8    7.9    8.6
:Cannonball River
Regent                4.8    4.9    5.2    6.7    7.9    9.8   10.7
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh               1.2    1.2    1.2    2.8    5.7    7.0    7.7
:Cannonball River
Breien                2.3    2.3    3.9    5.4    9.6   10.7   11.6
:Beaver Creek
Linton                4.5    4.5    4.6    5.1    8.2    9.5   10.1
:Little Muddy River
Williston             4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    5.0    6.5    8.1
:Little Missouri
Marmarth              1.2    1.2    1.2    1.3    1.8    4.9    5.2
:Little Missouri River
Medora                1.8    1.8    1.8    1.9    4.3    6.4    6.9
Watford City         -0.1   -0.1   -0.1    0.7    2.7    4.6    5.0
:Knife River
Manning               6.3    6.3    6.3    6.3    9.0   10.0   11.2
:Spring Creek
Zap                   4.9    4.9    4.9    5.3    6.0    8.4   10.6
:Knife River
Hazen                 1.3    1.3    1.3    2.0    6.2   10.0   16.4
:Heart River
Mandan                0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    2.9    8.6    9.8
:Apple Creek
Menoken               5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    8.2   15.5   16.8

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          VALID PERIOD:  07/30/2016  - 10/28/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree               4.8    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6
:James River
Grace City            4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3
Lamoure               7.3    7.3    7.2    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1
:Cannonball River
Regent                4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh               1.1    1.1    1.1    1.0    0.3    0.3    0.3
:Cannonball River
Breien                1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7
:Beaver Creek
Linton                4.3    4.3    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2
:Little Muddy River
Williston             4.6    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5

:Little Missouri
Marmarth              1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2
:Little Missouri River
Medora                1.7    1.5    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3
Watford City         -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.1
:Knife River
Manning               6.1    6.1    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0
:Spring Creek
Zap                   4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8
:Knife River
Hazen                 0.7    0.6    0.4    0.4    0.4    0.4    0.4
:Heart River
Mandan                0.1   -0.1   -0.3   -0.3   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4
:Apple Creek
Menoken               5.0    4.9    4.6    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/bis for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued toward the end of next month.

$$
AJS



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