Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
210 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017

...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK EXCEPT ABOVE NORMAL RISK IN THE GENESEE
RIVER AND FINGER LAKES BASINS THROUGH LATE APRIL...

This is the eighth and last winter / spring flood potential outlook
of the 2017 season. The outlooks are produced to highlight the
hydrometeorological conditions that combine to produce an above,
below, or near normal flood risk for the winter and spring season.
This includes snow cover and water equivalent, creek and river
levels and amount of ice cover on them, along with the expected
precipitation over the next few weeks.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

Temperatures were near to above normal for the first few weeks of
April. This combined with some periodic rain events melted the
remaining snow pack. Soils remain saturated due to recent rainfall
with most rivers and creeks running near to above normal. The
growing season has begun across the region with leafing occurring
across the west and Finger Lakes regions. The onset of the growing
season reduces the flood risk due to less expected runoff. Ground
water and reservoir levels have recovered to near normal levels
across most of the region following last years extreme drought.

The following is a summary of conditions and outlook by basin as of
April 13, 2017:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........NONE.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....NONE.
.CREEK FLOWS.........NORMAL.
.CREEK ICE...........NONE.
.GROUND FROST........NONE.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........NONE.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....NONE.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...ABOVE NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....NONE.
.GROUND FROST........NONE.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........NONE.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....NONE.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...NORMAL.
.RIVER CREEK ICE.....NONE.
.GROUND FROST........NONE.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........PATCHY.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....LESS THAN AN INCH.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...ABOVE NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....NONE.
.GROUND FROST........NONE.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

Temperatures are forecast to be seasonable with highs fluctuating in
to the 50s and 60s, with the exception of this upcoming weekend when
temperatures will briefly rise to well above normal with highs in
the 70s. A couple of systems are projected to bring periodic rain
showers to the area, however amounts do not look sufficient to
support flooding at this time. The 8 to 14 day outlook is for near
to above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

The flood risk is near normal for most of the area, with an above
normal risk for the Genesee and Finger Lakes region due to elevated
streamflows. The combination of saturated ground conditions but the
elimination of the snowpack leads to a near normal flood risk for
most of the region. Based on the latest forecast guidance any
rainfall events over the next two weeks are not likely to produce
flooding.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

Real time river information and probabilistic forecasts for
specific locations along area rivers across western New York can be
found at www.weather.gov/buf by clicking on the rivers and lakes
AHPS link on the side of the page. Since conditions can change
please refer to the latest flood warnings, watches, and statements
for additional information.

...AKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

Thanks to all the observers and agencies which have helped gather
data in support of this outlook. This is expected to be the final
winter/spring flood outlook.

$$

JAMISON/HITCHCOCK



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