Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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121-022015-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
406 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH MID APRIL...

THIS IS THE SEVENTH WINTER / SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF
THE 2016 SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS
INTO EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS
ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.
THIS INCLUDES SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT...CREEK AND RIVER
LEVELS AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON THEM...ALONG WITH THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

THERE IS NO SNOW PACK IN ANY OF THE REGION. THIS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOR MOST BASINS...EXCEPT THE BLACK RIVER WHICH NORMALLY DOES HAVE
AT LEAST SOME SNOW PACK THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH SOIL IS SATURATED
DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...RIVER AND CREEK FLOWS ARE BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK BY BASIN AS OF
THURSDAY MORNING ON MARCH 31ST:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........NONE.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....NONE.
.CREEK FLOWS.........BELOW NORMAL.
.CREEK ICE...........NONE.
.GROUND FROST........NONE.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........NONE.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....NONE.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...BELOW NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....NONE.
.GROUND FROST........NONE.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........NONE.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....NONE.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...BELOW NORMAL.
.RIVER CREEK ICE.....NONE.
.GROUND FROST........NONE.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........NONE.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....NONE.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...BELOW NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....NONE.
.GROUND FROST........NONE.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS COULD ACTUALLY RE-ESTABLISH A SMALL SNOW PACK IN SOME
AREAS WITH A COUPLE SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT MOST GUIDANCE HAS OUR REGION NEAR THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WOULD KEEP THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO OUR EAST
IN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE A BIT TOWARD MID-
APRIL...WITH A DRIER PATTERN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

FLOOD RISK IS BELOW NORMAL.

THE COMBINATION OF BELOW NORMAL RIVER/CREEK FLOWS AND NO SNOW PACK
LOWERS THE RISK FOR FLOODING. A VERY MOIST PATTERN COULD STILL
CAUSE FLOODING...HOWEVER THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS IS
UNLIKELY TO OCCUR.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN A MODEST SNOW PACK GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS IS LIKELY TO MELT GRADUALLY GIVEN THE HIGH
SUN ANGLES IN EARLY APRIL...BUT IF IT DOES LAST UNTIL THE NEXT
SYSTEM IT COULD ADD TO FLOWS LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PROBABLY WILL
ONLY BE AN ISSUE IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP FURTHER WEST AND PRODUCES A
MORE PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW IN OUR AREA. THE OTHER CONSIDERATION
IS THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IN THE 8 TO 14
TIMEFRAME. CONSIDERING EITHER OF THIS ARE UNLIKELY TO OCCUR...THE
LACK OF SNOW PACK AND BELOW NORMAL FLOWS SUGGEST THAT FLOOD RISK
IS BELOW NORMAL.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF BY CLICKING ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES
AHPS LINK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE. SINCE CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS...WATCHES...AND STATEMENTS
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

THANKS TO ALL THE OBSERVERS AND AGENCIES WHICH HAVE HELPED GATHER
DATA IN SUPPORT OF THIS OUTLOOK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FINAL
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK. IT IS POSSIBLE ANOTHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE ISSUED ON APRIL 14TH IF THIS PATTERN DOES PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK.

$$

APFFEL



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