Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1044 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017


...Winter and Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

...Expect below normal to near normal potential of river flooding
across the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area...

This Winter and Spring Flood Potential Outlook is for rivers and
tributaries of the Central Savannah River Basin...East-Central
Georgia and Central South Carolina including the following:

Savannah River Basin Downstream of R. B. Russell Reservoir and
upstream from Burtons Ferry...

The Edisto River basin upstream of the Bamberg and Orangeburg
County line in South Carolina...

The Santee River Basin upstream of the Clarendon and Berkeley
County line and downstream on the Saluda and Broad Rivers at the
Greenwood/Saluda...Laurens/Newberry...Union/Fairfield and the
Chester/Fairfield County lines in South Carolina...

The Wateree River System downstream of Great Falls South
Carolina...

The Great Pee Dee River Basin in Chesterfield County in South
Carolina...

           ...Summary of Recent Weather Events...

Over the last 14 days ending February 16th 2017...the hydrologic
area received rainfall amounts that ranged from 1 to 3 inches
across the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area. This is
approximately 75 to 90 percent of normal for the 14 day period.

          ...Soul Moisture-Drought Conditions...

Here is a breakdown of the current conditions across the Midlands
and CSRA.

D1...Moderate Drought covered just the extreme northern CSRA and
western Midlands. This includes the counties of
Lincoln...McCormick...extreme northern Edgefield...Newberry and
western Fairfield counties.

D0...Abnormally Dry conditions covered parts of the CSRA and
western Midlands. This includes the counties of northern
Columbia...northwest Edgefield...Newberry and northwest Fairfield
counties.

The remainder of the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area
showed no drought conditions. Conditions have improved steadily
over the past month with the increased frequency of rainfall
events.

Go to www.drought.gov for more details.

             ...River and Stream Flow...

Looking at the 14 day stream flow average compared to historical
streamflows for February 15 2017 show around 60 percent reported
flows that are less 25 percentile range. This includes the basins
of: The Savannah River...The Saluda River and The Catawba/Wateree
Rivers. The only basins that indicated conditions near/above
normal were the Edisto Basin and Santee Basin.

Many of the Rivers where stream flow remains below normal for the
historical period are those with reservoirs. This includes the
Middle Saluda River Basin...the Savannah River Basin and the
Catawba-Wateree Basin.

              ...Reservoir Levels...

Area reservoirs remain mixed with areas along the Savannah River
Basin below normal for their Winter target pool/guide curves.
While the Saluda and Santee Basins remain near or just above
their Winter Santee and area around normal or above normal for
their Winter target pools/guide curve values.

Lake Thurmond (FP 330.0 Feet)...
Feb 02 2017    320.67 Feet
Feb 16 2017    320.41 Feet
Difference Minus 0.26 Feet

Lake Greenwood (FP 440.0 Feet)...
Feb 02 2017    434.60 Feet
Feb 16 2017    434.96 Feet
Difference Plus  0.36 FEET

Lake Murray (FP 360.0 Feet)...
Feb 02 2017    356.80 Feet
Feb 16 2017    356.91 Feet
Difference Plus  0.11 Feet

Lake Marion (FP 76.8 Feet)...
Feb 02 2017     75.20 Feet
Feb 16 2017     74.81 Feet
Difference Minus 0.39 Feet

Lake Wateree (FP 100.00 Feet)...
Feb 02 2017     98.13 Feet
Feb 16 2017     98.57 Feet
DIFFERENCE Plus  0.44 Feet

Data for this segment was gathered from the United States
Geological Survey...the United States Army Corps of
Engineers...Duke Energy...South Carolina Electric and Gas and
Santee Cooper.

      ...Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks...

Near Term...A trough across the eastern portion of the country
will move off the coast as a ridge of high pressure builds across
the Southeast. In between these two long wave features...a closed
area of low pressure will move across the region on Saturday into
Saturday night. This will bring a chance of rain across the area
but amounts are expected to be light. Rainfall amounts are
forecasted to range from one tenth of an inch to one quarter of
an inch.

Please see the Gridded Forecasts for the chance of rain over the
next 7 days at weather.gov/cae.

The 8 to 14 Day Outlook for the period February 23 to March 01
call for a 50 to 60 percent chance of above normal temperatures.
There will be equal chances of above...below and near normal
precipitation through the period.

The 30-Day Outlook for February 2017 indicates 40 percent chance
of above normal temperatures with 33 to 40 percent chance of above
normal precipitation.

The 3-Month Outlook for March...April and May calls for a 40
percent chance of above normal temperatures with equal chances of
above...below and near normal precipitation.

Go to the Climate Prediction Center webpage at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov for more details and the latest outlooks.

                   ...Summary/Outlook...

The Spring Flood Outlook calls for below or near normal potential
of river flooding across Central South Carolina and East-Central
Georgia.

Historically...the River Flood Season begins in early to mid
January with the number of river flood events increasing through
late Winter. The peak occurs in early to mid March then begins to
end in late April for the region.

Although moderate to severe drought continues over portions of the
Upstate and Piedmont of South Carolina and portions of Georgia,
rainfall over the past 60 days has reduced the area impacted by
drought. However, rainfall has not been excessive and the risk of
significant river flooding during the late Winter into Spring is
minimal.

For this region...streamflows are running below normal to around
normal. The medium to long range precipitation guidance leans
toward conditions being near or slightly above normal for the
period. There will be a slight increase in the potential for
excessive runoff and river flooding due to rainfall over the past
60 days across the region. The area Reservoirs along the Savannah
River are running below target pool or guide curves. The Santee
and Catawba River Reservoirs are running near or just above
normal for their target pool/guide curves for middle February.
Overall...the relative risk of river flooding downstream from
these projects is below normal.

The next schedule Winter/Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for
March 02 2017.

                ...Questions and Comments...

If you have any questions or comments about this outlook please
contact...

The National Weather Service
2909 Aviation Way
West Columbia SC 29170
Phone: 803-822-8135
Internet Address: caewx@noaa.gov
Senior Service Hydrologist:
Leonard.Vaughan@noaa.gov


Vaughan


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