Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FGUS72 KILM 202011
ESFILM
NCC017-019-047-129-141-155-SCC031-033-041-043-051-067-069-089-
062015-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
311 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

RAINFALL DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAS BEEN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR...THE AREA IS DROUGHT FREE DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL.
THE TABLE BELOW SUMMARIZES PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT AREA
OBSERVATION SITES THROUGH THURSDAY...FEBRUARY 19TH...FOR VARIOUS
TIME SCALES.

WILMINGTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      4.21      3.78      0.43       111%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)     11.50      7.35      4.15       156%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     15.56     10.86      4.70       143%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     24.25     26.74     -2.49        91%
                ONE YEAR      61.67     57.61      4.06       107%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     69.33     67.89      1.44       102%

LUMBERTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.25      3.12      0.13       104%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      9.33      5.62      3.71       166%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     12.23      8.66      3.57       141%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     17.06     19.29     -2.23        88%
                ONE YEAR      43.48     43.52     -0.04       100%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     54.63     51.65      2.98       106%

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.23      3.77     -0.54        86%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      7.84      6.96      0.88       113%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     11.05     10.36      0.69       107%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     17.33     24.75     -7.42        70%
                ONE YEAR      42.24     52.01     -9.77        81%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     47.64     61.86    -14.22        77%

FLORENCE SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      2.90      3.07     -0.17        94%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      7.29      6.20      1.09       118%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     10.77      9.01      1.76       120%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     20.93     18.89      2.04       111%
                ONE YEAR      43.76     42.91      0.85       102%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     53.79     51.47      2.32       105%

SEVEN DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA ARE AT NEAR
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS ARE ALSO
AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS ARE AT NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...STORM SYSTEMS MAY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. DURING THE EIGHT TO FOURTEEN DAY
PERIOD...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE OUTLOOKS FOR
MARCH AND FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER CALL FOR ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
RESPECTIVELY.

IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ABOVE FACTORS...THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
A NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH MAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
MARCH 6TH.

$$

RAN






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