Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FGUS73 KOAX 272003
ESFOAX
NEC003-023-025-039-053-055-067-095-107-109-119-127-139-141-147-151-
153-155-159-167-IAC071-085-133-137-145-155-312359-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
303 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...PROBABILISTIC FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
   :                     VALID PERIOD = 7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATERGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

:PONCA CREEK
VERDEL              12.0   15.0   17.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:NIOBRARA RIVER
VERDEL               7.0    9.0   10.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:NORTH FORK ELKHORN RIVER
PIERCE              12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:ELKHORN RIVER
NELIGH              11.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
NORFOLK             12.0   13.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PILGER              12.0   14.0   15.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WEST POINT          12.0   16.0   18.7 :  11    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
WATERLOO            17.0   18.0   21.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:LOGAN CREEK
UEHLING             18.0   19.0   21.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:SHELL CREEK
COLUMBUS            20.0   21.0   22.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:PLATTE RIVER
DUNCAN               8.0    9.0   10.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
NORTH BEND           8.0   12.0   15.0 :   5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
LESHARA              8.0   10.0   12.0 :   5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5

:MAPLE CREEK
NICKERSON           11.5   13.0   17.0 :   9    9    8    8   <5    6

:PLATTE RIVER
ASHLAND             20.0   22.0   26.0 :  <5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
LOUISVILLE           9.0   11.0   12.0 :   6   11   <5   <5   <5   <5

:WAHOO CREEK
ITHACA              19.0   22.0   23.0 :  20   22    5    9   <5   <5

:SALT CREEK
ROCA                19.0   23.0   26.0 :   9   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
LINCOLN             20.5   26.5   33.0 :   6    9   <5    5   <5   <5
GREENWOOD           20.0   22.0   26.0 :  11   12    9   10    5    5
ASHLAND             16.0   20.0   23.0 :  19   21   <5   <5   <5   <5

:BIG BLUE RIVER
SURPRISE             7.0   11.0   16.0 :   5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SEWARD              18.0   22.0   27.0 :   8   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
CRETE               18.0   24.0   29.0 :  31   43    9   11   <5   <5
BEATRICE            16.0   26.0   32.0 :  11   21   <5    5   <5   <5
BARNESTON           20.0   27.0   34.0 :  16   19    6    8   <5   <5

:LINCOLN CREEK
SEWARD              15.0   17.0   20.0 :  13   15    7    8   <5   <5

:WEST FORK BIG BLUE RIVER
DORCHESTER          15.0   22.0   24.4 :  13   18   <5   <5   <5   <5

:TURKEY CREEK
WILBER              12.5   16.0   21.0 :  13   22   <5    6   <5   <5

:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
FAIRBURY            18.5   20.0   26.0 :   8    6   <5   <5   <5   <5

:WEEPING WATER CREEK
UNION               25.0   28.0   30.0 :  10   19   <5    9   <5   <5

:LITTLE NEMAHA R
AUBURN              22.0   23.0   27.0 :  11   11   10   10   <5   <5

:NORTH FORK BIG NEMAHA RIVER
HUMBOLDT            28.0   29.5   31.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:BIG NEMAHA RIVER
FALLS CITY          27.0   33.0   36.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5

:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLETON            21.0   24.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
TURIN               25.0   28.0   34.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:SOLDIER RIVER
PISGAH              28.0   29.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:BOYER RIVER
LOGAN               19.0   22.0   25.0 :   6    5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:WEST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
HANCOCK             14.0   19.0   23.0 :  15   12   10   10    9    9
RANDOLPH            19.0   22.0   24.0 :  21   16   10   12    7    8

:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
RED OAK             18.0   22.0   27.0 :  17   15    9    8    5    5

:NISHNABOTNA RIVER
HAMBURG             25.0   27.0   33.0 :  18   22   10   16   <5   <5

:NODAWAY RIVER
CLARINDA            23.0   26.0   29.0 :  11    9   <5   <5   <5   <5


LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

:PONCA CREEK
VERDEL                4.1    4.2    4.6    5.4    7.0    9.2   10.2

:NIOBRARA RIVER
VERDEL                3.1    3.1    3.2    3.5    3.6    4.3    4.4

:NORTH FORK ELKHORN RIVER
PIERCE                3.2    3.2    3.2    3.3    6.4    8.4    9.6

:ELKHORN RIVER
NELIGH                0.3    0.3    1.4    4.1    5.7    6.5    7.4
NORFOLK               1.9    2.0    2.6    3.1    4.5    5.7    8.2
PILGER                7.2    7.3    7.8    8.3    9.2   10.2   11.7
WEST POINT            6.4    6.7    7.3    8.4    9.6   12.1   13.0
WATERLOO              2.7    3.2    5.7    7.4   11.7   14.7   15.7

:LOGAN CREEK
UEHLING               4.5    4.5    5.2    7.7   11.0   15.3   17.5

:SHELL CREEK
COLUMBUS              0.9    0.9    0.9    3.2    8.2   17.9   18.2

:PLATTE RIVER
DUNCAN                3.7    3.7    3.9    4.2    4.8    5.3    5.9
NORTH BEND            4.1    4.1    4.5    5.0    5.7    6.7    7.6
LESHARA               4.4    4.4    4.7    5.2    6.3    7.3    8.2

:MAPLE CREEK
NICKERSON             3.1    3.1    4.4    6.1    8.0   10.5   16.8

:PLATTE RIVER
ASHLAND              15.7   15.9   16.3   17.2   18.5   19.3   19.8
LOUISVILLE            3.8    4.0    4.7    5.7    7.2    8.6    9.2

:WAHOO CREEK
ITHACA                4.0    4.0    4.0    5.6   17.2   21.8   22.0

:SALT CREEK
ROCA                  1.7    1.7    1.7    3.0    6.6   16.6   20.1
LINCOLN               2.7    2.7    2.7    3.6    8.1   16.6   22.5
GREENWOOD             2.5    2.5    2.5    4.0   13.6   20.7   25.6
ASHLAND               7.0    7.0    7.0    8.1   14.8   18.2   19.1

:BIG BLUE RIVER
SURPRISE              1.3    1.4    1.6    2.2    3.1    4.9    6.5
SEWARD                1.7    1.7    2.3    4.7   10.6   16.8   20.0
CRETE                 7.6    7.6    9.8   14.9   19.2   23.2   25.8
BEATRICE              3.3    3.3    5.4    8.2   10.4   17.4   20.4
BARNESTON             3.6    4.0    6.4    8.8   14.7   21.4   29.3

:LINCOLN CREEK
SEWARD                4.1    4.1    4.4    8.0   12.3   15.6   18.2

:WEST FORK BIG BLUE RIVER
DORCHESTER            2.8    2.8    4.5    6.7   11.4   16.0   18.3

:TURKEY CREEK
WILBER                1.6    1.7    3.9    6.9    8.7   13.2   15.3

:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
FAIRBURY              7.6    7.7   10.0   11.6   14.3   17.6   19.5

:WEEPING WATER CREEK
UNION                 2.0    2.0    2.0    4.5   17.6   25.1   27.1

:LITTLE NEMAHA R
AUBURN                2.7    2.7    4.5    7.3   11.5   23.0   23.7

:NORTH FORK BIG NEMAHA RIVER
HUMBOLDT              2.0    2.0    3.3    7.1   11.1   14.8   18.6

:BIG NEMAHA RIVER
FALLS CITY            4.0    4.6    6.8   11.8   17.8   23.2   25.7

:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLETON              6.0    6.0    6.0    6.9    8.1   10.2   15.2

:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
TURIN                 8.5    8.5    8.7    9.6   12.6   16.9   20.7

:SOLDIER RIVER
PISGAH                4.1    4.2    4.6    5.7    7.8    9.5   10.7

:BOYER RIVER
LOGAN                 4.1    4.1    5.5    7.7   10.5   15.6   19.6

:WEST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
HANCOCK               3.1    3.1    3.9    5.9    8.2   17.6   27.5
RANDOLPH              9.5    9.5    9.8   11.9   16.6   22.2   26.1

:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
RED OAK               6.5    6.6    7.4    9.0   14.9   20.0   27.4

:NISHNABOTNA RIVER
HAMBURG              10.9   10.9   11.4   14.7   21.8   26.9   30.6

:NODAWAY RIVER
CLARINDA             11.3   11.3   11.3   12.3   13.6   23.1   24.3



THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE INTERNET AT

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/OMAHA (LOWER CASE)

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE AUGUST

$$
PEARSON



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