Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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835
FGUS62 KALR 191620
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
1120 AM EST THU JAN 19 2017

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH
APRIL...WHILE WE EXPECT BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR FLOODING ON THE
BORDER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA IN THE SAVANNAH BASIN.

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN
EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.

FOR CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR
NORMAL WHILE BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SHORT TERM CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LOOK NEAR NORMAL WITH WET
WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
FEBRUARY. LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE LEANS TOWARDS DRIER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH MARCH. OVERALL...THE RELATIVE RIVER FLOOD
RISK IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF JANUARY 18TH ARE MIXED.  THE HEADWATERS OF THE CAROLINAS
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AS YOU MOVE SOUTH AND EAST...CONDITIONS ARE
MORE NORMAL.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL IN
THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.   RAINFALL HAS BEEN
CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE PIEDMONT REGIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

RESERVOIRS...MOST OF THE RESERVOIRS IN THE REGION ARE NEAR THEIR
TARGET POOLS.  THE EXCEPTION TO THAT IS ALONG THE SAVANNAH BASIN AT
THE BORDER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.  THE TWO MAIN CORPS
RESERVOIRS THAT HAVE THE LARGEST WATER SUPPLY ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME YEAR.   HOWEVER, RECENT RAINFALL HAS AT LEAST STOPPED
THE POOLS FROM DROPPING.

SNOW PACK...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS
SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND THE NEXT WEEK...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER MAY DOMINATE THE
REGION WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CPC 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
CALLING FOR DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THE WINTER INTO
EARLY SPRING...BASED ON THE CPC LONG LEAD OUTLOOK...BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR NEAR NORMAL AS YOU APPROACH THE HEADWATERS/MOUNTAINS
AREA.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY MONTH.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

HAMILL/DOBUR



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