Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
1130 AM EST FRIDAY FEBRUARY 27 2015

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH

.WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...
WITH A SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND A WET
START TO THE MONTH OF MARCH...ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE EXPECTED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND NEAR NORMAL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
.....................................................................

.HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...
FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE ELEVATED THE FIRST PART OF THE MONTH AND RELAX
TO NEAR NORMAL THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.  A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS
OCCASIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS.
DROUGHT POTENTIAL IS LOW.
.....................................................................

.PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...
RAINFALL DEPARTURES...
1 TO 3 INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT FELL ACROSS INDIANA...SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...
OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IN FEBRUARY.  THESE AMOUNTS ARE 50 TO 110
PERCENT OF NORMAL. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 4 INCHES FELL ACROSS
THE LAKE ERIE SNOWBELT.  THESE AMOUNTS WERE AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
ACROSS KENTUCKY...WEST VIRGINIA AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WATER EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS WERE 3 TO 6 INCHES...OR 125 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/OHRFC/DROUGHT.HTML

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL
FOR FEBRUARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/W.SHTML

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS FOR FEBRUARY WERE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER AND ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

HTTP://WATERMONITOR.GOV

.....................................................................

.ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR MARCH...

TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN
ARCTIC OSCILLATION
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE OVERALL = NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY WETTER

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
POSITIVE = WETTER THAN NORMAL

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
GENERALLY NEGATIVE TO NEAR NEUTRAL
NEGATIVE = WETTER THAN NORMAL

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
NEUTRAL TO NEAR WEAK EL NINO = NORMAL TO DRIER THAN NORMAL

HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV

.....................................................................

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
MOST ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS GENERALLY SUPPORT A WETTER THAN NORMAL
MARCH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED FLOOD RISK AND AT OR ABOVE STEAMFLOWS.  MODELS
ARE SHOWING A BRIEF WARM UP AND A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT  FOR THE START OF
MARCH. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MONTH.

.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC/WRO.SHTML

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

$$



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