Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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982
FGUS65 KSTR 051841
ESPUT

COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
MAY 5, 2016

            INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

                     WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
                                 UTAH

                                 AS OF
                             MAY 1, 2016


PRECIPITATION AND SNOWPACK (% OF AVERAGE, ROUNDED):

SUBBASIN                 APR PRECIP     OCT-APR PREC     MAY 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------     -------------
BEAR                         85             100                85
WEBER                       100              95                80
SIX CREEKS (SLC)            105              90                70
PROVO                        95              85                65
SEVIER                      120             105               100
VIRGIN                      175             110               105
DUCHESNE                    120              90                85
PRICE/SAN RAFAEL            105              90                60



STREAMFLOW VOLUME FORECASTS:
Developed:                    May 1 2016

Great Salt Lake Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Bear River
  Utah-Wyoming State Line  Apr-Jul     93    83    108     97     88     80    112
  Woodruff Narrows Rsvr,   Apr-Jul     76    63     91     81     69     63    121
  Montpelier, nr, Stewart  Apr-Jul     82    45    107     92     78     69    182
Smiths Fork River
  Border, nr               Apr-Jul     69    78     77     73     66     62     89
Logan River
  Logan, nr, State Dam, a  Apr-Jul     94    85    105     99     92     88    111
Blacksmith Fork River
  Hyrum, nr, Upnl Dam, ab  Apr-Jul     36    84     42     38     35     35     43
Little Bear River
  Paradise                 Apr-Jul     25    53     31     27     23     23     47
Weber River
  Oakley, nr               Apr-Jul     92    78    107     95     86     77    118
  Rockport Res, Wanship,   Apr-Jul     86    65    103     89     80     69    132
  Coalville, nr            Apr-Jul     84    63    102     88     78     67    134
  Echo Res, Echo, at       Apr-Jul    102    60    127    108     94     80    171
  Gateway                  Apr-Jul    180    55    235    191    170    152    325
Chalk Ck
  Coalville                Apr-Jul     22    54     28     23   18.7   17.0     41
Weber River
  Coalville, nr            Apr-Jul     84    63    102     88     78     67    134
Lost Ck
  Lost Ck Res, Croydon, n  Apr-Jul    8.5    63   10.3    9.2    8.1    8.0   13.4
East Canyon Ck
  East Canyon Res, Morgan  Apr-Jul   13.3    49   16.9   14.4   12.8   12.5     27
SF Ogden River
  Huntsville, nr           Apr-Jul     49    88     63     54     47     45     56
Ogden River
  Pineview Res, Ogden, nr  Apr-Jul     80    71    101     88     76     72    113
Spanish Fork River
  Castilla, nr             Apr-Jul   18.8    27     22     19   17.5   16.8     69
Provo River
  Woodland, nr             Apr-Jul     75    75     87     80     73     66    100
  Hailstone, nr            Apr-Jul     83    75     96     89     81     74    110
  Deer Ck Res              Apr-Jul     90    71    107    100     86     78    127
American Fork River
  American Fork, nr, Up P  Apr-Jul   17.2    55     22     18   16.3   15.1     31
  American Fork, nr, Up P  Apr-Jul   17.2    55     22     18   16.3   15.1     31
Jordan River
  Utah Lake, Provo, nr     Apr-Jul    167    51    200    182    156    144    325
Little Cottonwood Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul     28    74     33     29     27     26     38
Big Cottonwood Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul     21    58     26     22   21.0   19.9     36
City Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul    4.6    60    5.6    4.9    4.4    4.2    7.7
Emigration Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul   0.99    25   1.43   1.15   0.94   0.90    4.0
Red Butte Ck
  Ft Douglas, at, Salt La  Apr-Jul   0.51    27   0.77   0.55   0.50   0.49   1.90
Mill Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul    3.0    47    3.9    3.2    2.9    2.6    6.4
Dell Fk River
  Little Dell Res          Apr-Jul    2.7    49    3.6    3.0    2.6    2.3    5.5
Lambs Ck
  Lambs Ck                 Apr-Jul    3.1    58    4.3    3.5    3.0    2.8    5.3
Parleys Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul    6.4    45    9.0    7.1    6.1    5.7   14.2
S Willow Ck
  Grantsville, nr          Apr-Jul    2.3    74    2.7    2.4    2.2    2.1    3.1
West Canyon Ck
  Cedar Fort, nr           Apr-Jul   1.02    58   1.63   1.21   0.78   0.62   1.76
Salt Ck
  Nephi Powerplant Div, b  Apr-Jul    4.0    48    4.7    4.1    3.8    3.4    8.3

Sevier Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
EF Sevier River
  Kingston, nr             Apr-Jul     33    94     41     38   28.0   17.8     35
Clear Ck
  Sevier, nr, Diversions,  Apr-Jul     24   114     29     27   22.0   19.8     21
Salina Ck
  Emery, nr                Apr-Jul    5.9    75    9.2    7.6    4.8    4.0    7.9
Sevier River
  Gunnison, nr             Apr-Jul     57    58     80     62     43     34     99
Beaver River
  Beaver, nr               Apr-Jul     20    77     25     21   18.6   14.9     26
Coal Ck
  Cedar City, nr           Apr-Jul   18.7    96     21     19   17.9   15.4   19.4

Eastern Utah - Green River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Blacks Fork River
  Robertson, nr            Apr-Jul     75    84     92     82     70     64     89
Green River
  Flaming Gorge Res, Flam  Apr-Jul    770    79    980    905    680    615    980
White River
  Watson, nr               Apr-Jul    245    88    310    255    235    215    280
Big Brush Ck
  Vernal, nr, Red Fleet R  Apr-Jul   18.6    89     22     20   17.1   15.3     21
Ashley Ck
  Vernal, nr               Apr-Jul     43    86     52     45     41     36     50
Whiterocks River
  Whiterocks, nr           Apr-Jul     41    76     52     44     36     32     54
Uinta River
  Neola, nr                Apr-Jul     59    80     77     64     52     47     74
Yellowstone River
  Altonah, nr              Apr-Jul     51    84     61     55     46     41     61
Lake Fork River
  Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home  Apr-Jul     48    73     60     51     44     40     66
Rock Ck
  Upper Stillwater Res     Apr-Jul     64    86     76     69     60     52     74
South Fork Rock Ck
  Docs Div, blo            Apr-Jul    5.2    71    6.3    5.7    4.9    4.4    7.3
Rock Ck
  Mountain Home, nr        Apr-Jul     71    81     85     77     66     57     88
West Fork Duchesne River
  Vat Diversion, blo       Apr-Jul   10.0    54   12.3   11.0    9.0    8.1   18.6
Duchesne River
  Tabiona, nr              Apr-Jul     71    66     84     79     65     61    108
  Duchesne, nr, Knight Di  Apr-Jul    141    73    162    153    129    120    194
Currant Ck
  Currant Ck Res           Apr-Jul   10.0    50   11.9   10.9    9.1    8.2     20
Strawberry River
  Solider Springs,nr - St  Apr-Jul     24    34     30     28   21.0   18.8     71
  Starvation Res, Duchesn  Apr-Jul     41    37     50     45     36     33    112
Duchesne River
  Myton                    Apr-Jul    173    52    220    193    154    135    330
  Randlett, nr             Apr-Jul    192    50    265    215    169    148    385
Fish Ck
  Scofield, nr, Reservoir  Apr-Jul   16.8    56     21     19   15.2   13.3     30
Price River
  Scofield Res, Scofield,  Apr-Jul     21    51     27     24   19.4   16.3     41
White River
  Blo Tabbyune Ck, Soldie  Apr-Jul    8.3    54   10.9    9.5    7.8    6.7   15.5
Green River
  Green River, Ut          Apr-Jul   2380    80   2980   2600   2180   1960   2960
Huntington Ck
  Electric Lake            Apr-Jul    5.2    39    7.7    6.5    4.9    4.5   13.3
  Power Plant, blo -Hunti  Apr-Jul     20    50     27     24   19.4   18.7     40
Seeley Ck
  Joes Vly Res, Orangevil  Apr-Jul     32    57     40     34     30     27     56
Ferron Ck
  Ferron, nr               Apr-Jul     25    66     30     26     23     20     38
Muddy Ck
  Emery, nr                Apr-Jul   11.1    56   13.8   11.9   10.2    8.8   19.9

Upper Colorado Basin - UC and Dolores
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Dolores River
  Cisco, nr                Apr-Jul    410    73    490    450    385    355    565
Colorado River
  Cisco, nr                Apr-Jul   3800    86   4730   4080   3530   3230   4440
  Lake Powell, Glen Cyn D  Apr-Jul   5500    77   7110   6060   5060   4210   7160

San Juan Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul    765    70    955    815    710    640   1100

lower colorado basin - virgin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Santa Clara River
  Pine Valley, nr          Apr-Jul    3.5    70    4.5    3.8    3.2    2.7    5.0
Virgin River
  Virgin                   Apr-Jul     49    84     55     51     45     42     58
  Hurricane, nr            Apr-Jul     37    59     45     41     34     30     63
  Littlefield              Apr-Jul     38    58     43     41     36     31     65

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.


CBRFC/Miller/Bernard/Nielson/Cox



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