746
AWUS01 KWNH 052154
FFGMPD
TXZ000-060200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0229
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
553 PM EDT Sun May 05 2024

Areas affected...central to northeastern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052152Z - 060200Z

SUMMARY...Highly localized flash flooding may result over the next
3-5 hours from thunderstorms producing 1-2 in/hr rates atop
saturated soils. Coverage of storms and their organization appears
lower end, but recent heavy rainfall has increased the potential
for runoff across portions of central to northeastern TX.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery and lightning data
indicated widely scattered thunderstorms over portions of central
and eastern TX at 2145Z within a relatively clear region
accompanied by 1000 to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE over central to
eastern/northeastern TX via the 21Z SPC mesoanalysis. These storms
were forming within a zone of elevated convergence, in the wake of
a departing upper level shortwave over the eastern TX/OK border.
Despite the weak axis of low level forcing, subsidence behind the
shortwave and an unfavorable upper level jet orientation makes
this region of TX hostile to high coverage of thunderstorm
development.

Nonetheless, the zone of elevated convergence is expected to drift
north over the next few hours with additional thunderstorm
development appearing likely via an existing cell over Robertson
County near Hearne (which produced 1.18 inches of rain in an hour
ending 2134Z...via Wunderground.com), and agitated cumulus on
visible imagery. Coverage of cells is likely to remain scattered
in nature through the evening, but some slow movement of any
robust cells that form may support 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates, on a
highly localized basis. Dissipation of any thunderstorms should
occur after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

Heavy rain over the past 10 days or so across central to
northeastern TX, including 3 to 5+ inches over the past 24 hours
to the west of I-35, has resulted in saturated soils and reduced
infiltration capacity of additional rainfall. Any areas of renewed
flash flooding that occur are expected to remain localized and
likely lower end in magnitude.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33239663 33109587 32889537 32539498 32109469
            31429459 31159493 30829577 30929723 30959818
            31289862 31829874 32599796 33229721