Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 281940
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
MORE PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-290830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1050).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-290830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 72-77 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-290830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT 65-70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.12 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-290830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (920).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.13 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-290830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG UNTIL
                    0900...THEN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AJS


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