Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FNUS54 KMRX 271915
FWFMRX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
315 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH DRY
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-282015-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
315 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        PCldy        MClear
Temp (24h trend)      50-55 (0)    65-70 (-3)   46-51        67-72
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+3)  56-61 (+5)   89-94        40-45
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  SW  7 G18                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  5         W  8 G19     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           tstms        tstms        showers      NONE
Chance precip (%)     80           60           20           0
Precip duration       5            2            1
Precip begin          8 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   2 AM
Precip amount         0.31         0.11         0.01         0.00
LAL                   3            2            1            1
LASI                               3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4300                      5100
Transport wnd (mph)                W 15                      NE  6
Dispersion                         30 Fair                   14 Gen poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  SW  9 G18                 NE  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S  7         W 10 G19     NW  5        LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph shifting to the southeast
after midnight.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the 40s to mid 50s.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the 50s to upper 60s. West
winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
mid 50s to upper 60s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
upper 50s to lower 70s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Southeast
winds less than 10 mph.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-282015-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
315 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        PCldy        MClear
Temp (24h trend)      48-53 (+1)   63-68 (-3)   44-49        65-70
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+1)  52-57 (+1)   90-95        40-45
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  W  7 G20                  LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  5         W  9 G22     NW  7 G18    LGT/VAR
Precip type           tstms        tstms        showers      NONE
Chance precip (%)     80           60           20           0
Precip duration       5            2            1
Precip begin          8 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   2 AM
Precip amount         0.24         0.12         0.01         0.00
LAL                   3            2            1            1
LASI                               3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 5700                      4900
Transport wnd (mph)                W 16                      NW  6
Dispersion                         41 Gen good               10 Poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  W  9 G20                  N  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S  7         W 12 G22     NW  8 G18    LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s to lower
50s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 70s. Southeast winds
5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
50s to upper 60s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid
50s to lower 70s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s.
Southeast winds less than 10 mph.

$$

TNZ072-074-282015-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
315 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        PCldy        MClear
Temp (24h trend)      49-54 (+1)   64-69 (0)    44-49        67-72
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (0)   50-55 (-5)   89-94        37-42
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  W  8 G19                  LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  8 G21     W  8 G19     NW  5        LGT/VAR
Precip type           tstms        tstms        NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     80           60           0            0
Precip duration       5            2
Precip begin          8 PM         Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   8 PM
Precip amount         0.44         0.07         0.00         0.00
LAL                   3            2            1            1
LASI                               3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 6200                      5200
Transport wnd (mph)                W 16                      NW  6
Dispersion                         44 Gen good               11 Poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  W 10 G19                  LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 10 G21     W 11 G19     NW  6        N  5

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s to mid 50s.
South winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the 50s to upper 70s. South winds 5 to
15 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the 40s to 50s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the 50s to lower 70s. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid
50s to lower 70s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid
50s to lower 70s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the 50s to 60s. South winds up to
10 mph.

$$

TNZ087-102-282015-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
315 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        PCldy        MClear
Temp (24h trend)      53-58 (+4)   69-74 (0)    46-51        74-79
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (-1)  48-53 (-6)   92-97        32-37
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  W  7 G16                  LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  7 G17     W  8 G17     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           tstms        tstms        NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     80           50           0            0
Precip duration       7            1
Precip begin          8 PM         Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   8 PM
Precip amount         0.44         0.04         0.00         0.00
LAL                   3            2            1            1
LASI                               3                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 6100                      4900
Transport wnd (mph)                W 14                      W  6
Dispersion                         48 Gen good               15 Gen poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  W  8 G16                  LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S  8 G17     W  9 G17     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the 60s to 70s. South winds 5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the 40s to upper 50s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 70s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper
50s to lower 70s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the
upper 50s to lower 70s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the 50s to upper 60s. South winds
up to 10 mph.

$$

NCZ060-061-282015-
Nantahala National Forest-
315 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

CLOUD COVER           MCldy        MCldy        PCldy        MClear
TEMP (24H TREND)      50-55 (+3)   68-73 (+1)   45-50        75-80
RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  52-57 (-9)   90-95        32-37
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  6 G15                  LGT/VAR
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         W  8 G19     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
PRECIP TYPE           tstms        tstms        NONE         NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           50           0            0
PRECIP DURATION       5            1
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         Continuing
PRECIP END            Continuing   8 PM
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.44         0.06         0.00         0.00
LAL                   3            2            1            1
LASI                               4                         5
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6600                      4900
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 15                      W  7
DISPERSION                         56 Gen good               14 Gen poor
MAX LVORI                          4                         5
33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  8                      LGT/VAR
33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  7         W 10 G19     NW  5        W  5

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s. Southeast winds
5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 70s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 60s
to lower 70s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs in the 60s to
lower 70s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the 50s to upper 60s. South winds
up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-282015-
East Tennessee District East-
315 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        PCldy        MClear
Temp (24h trend)      51-56 (+1)   67-72 (-3)   47-52        70-75
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (0)   53-58 (+4)   90-95        38-43
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  SW  6 G18                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      W  8 G19     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           tstms        tstms        showers      NONE
Chance precip (%)     80           60           0            0
Precip duration       5            2
Precip begin          8 PM         Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.34         0.10         0.00         0.00
LAL                   3            2            1            1
LASI                               3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4500                      4800
Transport wnd (mph)                W 15                      NE  6
Dispersion                         39 Fair                   15 Gen poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  SW  8 G18                 NE  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S  6         W 10 G19     W  5         LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s to mid 50s.
Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s. South winds
5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 70s.
West winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s
to upper 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the 60s
to lower 70s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows around 50. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Southeast winds
less than 10 mph.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-282015-
East Tennessee District West-
315 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        PCldy        MClear
Temp (24h trend)      54-59 (+3)   69-74 (-1)   48-53        72-77
RH % (24h trend)      91-96 (0)    47-52 (-7)   87-92        38-43
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  SW  6 G16                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  6         W  7 G17     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           tstms        tstms        NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     80           50           0            0
Precip duration       7            1
Precip begin          8 PM         Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   8 PM
Precip amount         0.48         0.04         0.00         0.00
LAL                   3            2            1            1
LASI                               4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4700                      5000
Transport wnd (mph)                W 13                      E  5
Dispersion                         38 Fair                   15 Gen poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  SW  8 G16                 E  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S  7         W  9 G17     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower to mid 50s.
East winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. South winds up to
10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Cooler. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 60s
to lower 70s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs in the 60s to
lower 70s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. South winds
up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-282015-
Cumberland District South-
315 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 /215 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           MCldy        PCldy        PCldy        MClear
Temp (24h trend)      54-59 (+3)   71-76 (-1)   48-53        74-79
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+1)  47-52 (-6)   91-96        37-42
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  W  6                      LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  7 G16     W  7 G17     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           tstms        tstms        NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     80           50           0            0
Precip duration       4            1
Precip begin          8 PM         Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   8 PM
Precip amount         0.42         0.02         0.00         0.00
LAL                   3            2            1            1
LASI                               3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 5000                      4900
Transport wnd (mph)                W 12                      W  5
Dispersion                         40 Fair                   16 Gen poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  W  8                      LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S  8 G16     W  9 G17     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Southeast
winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. South winds 5 to
15 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s
to lower 70s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid
60s to lower 70s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the 60s
to mid 70s. East winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. South winds
up to 10 mph.

$$



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