Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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ECCDA Discussions
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
259 PM PST Sun Dec 17 2017

ECC029-181700-
Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch
259 PM PST Sun Dec 17 2017

...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY...

...POTENTIAL FOR SANTA ANA WINDS LATER THIS WEEK...

A strong Santa Ana wind event impacted Ventura and Los Angeles
counties today. Mountain areas peaked this morning with damaging
gusts of 60 to 70 mph, while coastal and valley areas gusted between
40 and 60 mph. The Santa Ana winds will remain gusty through this
evening, then gradually diminish overnight into Monday morning. The
Red Flag Warning remains in effect for much of Los Angeles and
Ventura counties through 8 pm this evening. Any new fire ignitions
could bring very rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme
fire behavior into the evening hours.

There will be a return of more extensive onshore flow on Tuesday
with moderate humidity recovery across coastal and valley areas.
Another upper level trough will dig through California on Wednesday,
with a weak cold front bringing a slight chance of rain to areas
north of Point Conception.  For areas south of Point Conception,
including the Thomas Fire area, there will be cooler temperatures,
higher humidities, and increasing west to northwest winds through
the day on Wednesday. By late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night, northwest to north are expected to peak as upper level wind
support, cold air advection, and north-south pressure gradients
align. Wind speeds across the Santa Barbara county mountains  and
south coast will have the potential to be fairly similar to Saturday
morning`s event, with sustained winds in the 20 to 35 mph range, and
gusts generally ranging between 40 and 55 mph, except isolated gusts
to 60 mph across favored ridgetops. Gusty north winds are expected
to continue Thursday into Thursday night across much of Santa
Barbara county, and possibly continuing into  Friday. Gusty
northwest to north winds will also impact other mountain areas,
including the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors. While humidity
levels will likely remain above 15 percent with this event, there is
still the potential for critical fire weather conditions across the
Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast considering the
potential for strong winds and continued very dry fuels.

Later in the week into next weekend, confidence remains low for the
potential Santa Ana wind pattern as computer models continue to
widely fluctuate on the timing, duration, and strength of the Santa
Ana winds.


...Discussion from Monterey...

...Gusty northerly winds will combine with very low humidity  values
through Sunday morning...

...Red Flag Warning in effect through 10 am Sunday morning for
gusty winds and low humidity values for fire weather zones 507,
511, 512, 517, and 518...

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will maintain
unseasonably mild temperatures and dry conditions across the
district through early in the upcoming week. Gusty northerly winds
will also persist through Sunday morning, especially in the higher
elevations where Red Flag Warnings remain in effect. A weak weather
system is then forecast to push through the district late Tuesday
into Wednesday morning and produce a slight chance of rain. However,
widespread wetting rains are unlikely with dry conditions returning
for the remainder of the week.

Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified.
Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds.



$$

ECC028-181700-
Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch
259 PM PST Sun Dec 17 2017

...POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY...

...POTENTIAL FOR SANTA ANA WINDS LATER THIS WEEK...

A strong Santa Ana wind event impacted Ventura and Los Angeles
counties today. Mountain areas peaked this morning with damaging
gusts of 60 to 70 mph, while coastal and valley areas gusted between
40 and 60 mph. The Santa Ana winds will remain gusty through this
evening, then gradually diminish overnight into Monday morning. The
Red Flag Warning remains in effect for much of Los Angeles and
Ventura counties through 8 pm this evening. Any new fire ignitions
could bring very rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme
fire behavior into the evening hours.

There will be a return of more extensive onshore flow on Tuesday
with moderate humidity recovery across coastal and valley areas.
Another upper level trough will dig through California on Wednesday,
with a weak cold front bringing a slight chance of rain to areas
north of Point Conception.  For areas south of Point Conception,
including the Thomas Fire area, there will be cooler temperatures,
higher humidities, and increasing west to northwest winds through
the day on Wednesday. By late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night, northwest to north are expected to peak as upper level wind
support, cold air advection, and north-south pressure gradients
align. Wind speeds across the Santa Barbara county mountains  and
south coast will have the potential to be fairly similar to Saturday
morning`s event, with sustained winds in the 20 to 35 mph range, and
gusts generally ranging between 40 and 55 mph, except isolated gusts
to 60 mph across favored ridgetops. Gusty north winds are expected
to continue Thursday into Thursday night across much of Santa
Barbara county, and possibly continuing into  Friday. Gusty
northwest to north winds will also impact other mountain areas,
including the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors. While humidity
levels will likely remain above 15 percent with this event, there is
still the potential for critical fire weather conditions across the
Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast considering the
potential for strong winds and continued very dry fuels.

Later in the week into next weekend, confidence remains low for the
potential Santa Ana wind pattern as computer models continue to
widely fluctuate on the timing, duration, and strength of the Santa
Ana winds.


$$

ECC031-181700-
Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch
259 PM PST Sun Dec 17 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...POTENTIAL FOR SANTA ANA WINDS LATER THIS WEEK...

A strong Santa Ana wind event impacted Ventura and Los Angeles
counties today. Mountain areas peaked this morning with damaging
gusts of 60 to 70 mph, while coastal and valley areas gusted between
40 and 60 mph. The Santa Ana winds will remain gusty through this
evening, then gradually diminish overnight into Monday morning. The
Red Flag Warning remains in effect for much of Los Angeles and
Ventura counties through 8 pm this evening. Any new fire ignitions
could bring very rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme
fire behavior into the evening hours.

There will be a return of more extensive onshore flow on Tuesday
with moderate humidity recovery across coastal and valley areas.
Another upper level trough will dig through California on Wednesday,
with a weak cold front bringing a slight chance of rain to areas
north of Point Conception.  For areas south of Point Conception,
including the Thomas Fire area, there will be cooler temperatures,
higher humidities, and increasing west to northwest winds through
the day on Wednesday. By late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night, northwest to north are expected to peak as upper level wind
support, cold air advection, and north-south pressure gradients
align. Wind speeds across the Santa Barbara county mountains  and
south coast will have the potential to be fairly similar to Saturday
morning`s event, with sustained winds in the 20 to 35 mph range, and
gusts generally ranging between 40 and 55 mph, except isolated gusts
to 60 mph across favored ridgetops. Gusty north winds are expected
to continue Thursday into Thursday night across much of Santa
Barbara county, and possibly continuing into  Friday. Gusty
northwest to north winds will also impact other mountain areas,
including the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors. While humidity
levels will likely remain above 15 percent with this event, there is
still the potential for critical fire weather conditions across the
Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast considering the
potential for strong winds and continued very dry fuels.

Later in the week into next weekend, confidence remains low for the
potential Santa Ana wind pattern as computer models continue to
widely fluctuate on the timing, duration, and strength of the Santa
Ana winds.


$$

ECC024-181700-
San Luis Obispo County-
Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch
259 PM PST Sun Dec 17 2017


A strong Santa Ana wind event impacted Ventura and Los Angeles
counties today. Mountain areas peaked this morning with damaging
gusts of 60 to 70 mph, while coastal and valley areas gusted between
40 and 60 mph. The Santa Ana winds will remain gusty through this
evening, then gradually diminish overnight into Monday morning. The
Red Flag Warning remains in effect for much of Los Angeles and
Ventura counties through 8 pm this evening. Any new fire ignitions
could bring very rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme
fire behavior into the evening hours.

There will be a return of more extensive onshore flow on Tuesday
with moderate humidity recovery across coastal and valley areas.
Another upper level trough will dig through California on Wednesday,
with a weak cold front bringing a slight chance of rain to areas
north of Point Conception.  For areas south of Point Conception,
including the Thomas Fire area, there will be cooler temperatures,
higher humidities, and increasing west to northwest winds through
the day on Wednesday. By late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night, northwest to north are expected to peak as upper level wind
support, cold air advection, and north-south pressure gradients
align. Wind speeds across the Santa Barbara county mountains  and
south coast will have the potential to be fairly similar to Saturday
morning`s event, with sustained winds in the 20 to 35 mph range, and
gusts generally ranging between 40 and 55 mph, except isolated gusts
to 60 mph across favored ridgetops. Gusty north winds are expected
to continue Thursday into Thursday night across much of Santa
Barbara county, and possibly continuing into  Friday. Gusty
northwest to north winds will also impact other mountain areas,
including the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors. While humidity
levels will likely remain above 15 percent with this event, there is
still the potential for critical fire weather conditions across the
Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast considering the
potential for strong winds and continued very dry fuels.

Later in the week into next weekend, confidence remains low for the
potential Santa Ana wind pattern as computer models continue to
widely fluctuate on the timing, duration, and strength of the Santa
Ana winds.


$$

ECC032-181700-
Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch
259 PM PST Sun Dec 17 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY...

...POTENTIAL FOR SANTA ANA WINDS LATER THIS WEEK...

A strong Santa Ana wind event impacted Ventura and Los Angeles
counties today. Mountain areas peaked this morning with damaging
gusts of 60 to 70 mph, while coastal and valley areas gusted between
40 and 60 mph. The Santa Ana winds will remain gusty through this
evening, then gradually diminish overnight into Monday morning. The
Red Flag Warning remains in effect for much of Los Angeles and
Ventura counties through 8 pm this evening. Any new fire ignitions
could bring very rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme
fire behavior into the evening hours.

There will be a return of more extensive onshore flow on Tuesday
with moderate humidity recovery across coastal and valley areas.
Another upper level trough will dig through California on Wednesday,
with a weak cold front bringing a slight chance of rain to areas
north of Point Conception.  For areas south of Point Conception,
including the Thomas Fire area, there will be cooler temperatures,
higher humidities, and increasing west to northwest winds through
the day on Wednesday. By late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night, northwest to north are expected to peak as upper level wind
support, cold air advection, and north-south pressure gradients
align. Wind speeds across the Santa Barbara county mountains  and
south coast will have the potential to be fairly similar to Saturday
morning`s event, with sustained winds in the 20 to 35 mph range, and
gusts generally ranging between 40 and 55 mph, except isolated gusts
to 60 mph across favored ridgetops. Gusty north winds are expected
to continue Thursday into Thursday night across much of Santa
Barbara county, and possibly continuing into  Friday. Gusty
northwest to north winds will also impact other mountain areas,
including the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors. While humidity
levels will likely remain above 15 percent with this event, there is
still the potential for critical fire weather conditions across the
Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast considering the
potential for strong winds and continued very dry fuels.

Later in the week into next weekend, confidence remains low for the
potential Santa Ana wind pattern as computer models continue to
widely fluctuate on the timing, duration, and strength of the Santa
Ana winds.


$$

ECC030-181700-
Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch
259 PM PST Sun Dec 17 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY...

...POTENTIAL FOR SANTA ANA WINDS LATER THIS WEEK...

A strong Santa Ana wind event impacted Ventura and Los Angeles
counties today. Mountain areas peaked this morning with damaging
gusts of 60 to 70 mph, while coastal and valley areas gusted between
40 and 60 mph. The Santa Ana winds will remain gusty through this
evening, then gradually diminish overnight into Monday morning. The
Red Flag Warning remains in effect for much of Los Angeles and
Ventura counties through 8 pm this evening. Any new fire ignitions
could bring very rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme
fire behavior into the evening hours.

There will be a return of more extensive onshore flow on Tuesday
with moderate humidity recovery across coastal and valley areas.
Another upper level trough will dig through California on Wednesday,
with a weak cold front bringing a slight chance of rain to areas
north of Point Conception.  For areas south of Point Conception,
including the Thomas Fire area, there will be cooler temperatures,
higher humidities, and increasing west to northwest winds through
the day on Wednesday. By late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night, northwest to north are expected to peak as upper level wind
support, cold air advection, and north-south pressure gradients
align. Wind speeds across the Santa Barbara county mountains  and
south coast will have the potential to be fairly similar to Saturday
morning`s event, with sustained winds in the 20 to 35 mph range, and
gusts generally ranging between 40 and 55 mph, except isolated gusts
to 60 mph across favored ridgetops. Gusty north winds are expected
to continue Thursday into Thursday night across much of Santa
Barbara county, and possibly continuing into  Friday. Gusty
northwest to north winds will also impact other mountain areas,
including the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors. While humidity
levels will likely remain above 15 percent with this event, there is
still the potential for critical fire weather conditions across the
Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast considering the
potential for strong winds and continued very dry fuels.

Later in the week into next weekend, confidence remains low for the
potential Santa Ana wind pattern as computer models continue to
widely fluctuate on the timing, duration, and strength of the Santa
Ana winds.


$$


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